Gold is coming into strong summer seasonality
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1939280936438534243
Emerging market stocks are up double digits in 2025.
Developed markets outside the U.S. are up nearly 20% as a group.
And gold has rallied roughly 30%. Silver is up 26% in 2025.
The gold-to-silver ratio recently broke above 100. That’s the second-highest reading ever.
Gold and silver are both performing well right now. Gold should keep moving higher. But if you want to make the big money, silver is the place to invest today.
The metal soared 33% over a recent 10-week stretch. That’s one of the largest 10-week rallies in its history. And it happened because of China’s new gold problem…
You see, as gold prices soar, Chinese jewelers are turning to platinum. It’s more affordable after gold’s massive surge over the past few years.
The country has been importing huge amounts of platinum in recent months. This new and unexpected uptick in demand has helped catapult prices higher.
Gold’s big rally is driving this new demand for platinum… And as I explained yesterday, higher gold prices are still likely from here.
That means this trend should continue for platinum. And if that’s the case, a major crash isn’t likely. Instead, the massive rally we just saw could be only the beginning, with much higher platinum prices on the way.
Over the past two weeks, the price of gold and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) have both fallen more than 5%.
Despite the recent 5% pullback, prices are still holding above their rising 50-day moving average, and the longer-term 200-day trend remains firmly bullish.
What we’re seeing is a classic overbought reset following a vertical rally.
Four key fundamental tailwinds that are aligning in gold’s favor:-
1. Exploding U.S. Debt
2. The U.S. Dollar Is in a Stealth Bear Market
3. The Bond Market Is Flashing Warning Signals
4. Central Banks Are Buying and Now They Want Their Gold Back
Last week, the Financial Times reported that both Germany and Italy—two of the largest gold holders after the U.S.—are facing public pressure to move their bullion out of New York and back to Europe.
Gold is up roughly 25% this year. And gold miners are doing even better… rising more than 50% as a group.
But investors still don’t care. No one is buying gold stocks. And that tells us this rally will continue…
But in 2025, gold miners are creating big profits. And since no one’s buying, you haven’t missed this move yet.
In the first quarter, China’s sales of gold jewelry shrank by 26.8 percent year-on-year to 134.5 tonnes, while that of gold bars and coins increased faster by 29.8 percent to 138 tonnes, surpassing the former.
Hong Kong gold jewelry sellers say investment-grade products can be redeemed at 8 to 9 percent below selling prices, while jewelry redemption discounts are more than 19 percent.
Gold bars and coins are also about 10 percent cheaper than jewelry.
An additional 10 to 20 percent discount applies if exchanged jewelry is from other brands.
The spread between London spot and September futures contracts in New York remains unusually wide, similar to the start of the year when worries about tariffs triggered a surge of gold and silver shipments from London to the US, driving prices higher.
The market is headed for a fifth year in deficit.
Gold has already seen a tremendous upswing, and it’s currently expensive, meaning many investors will be more inclined toward buying silver.
When both bonds and the dollar are falling, gold tends to shine.
Add Powell’s Firing to the List of Reasons to Buy Gold
1. Exploding U.S. Debt
2. The U.S. Dollar Is Quietly Breaking Down
This slow decline is driven by:
a. Lower growth expectations in the U.S.
b. Waning demand for Treasuries
c. Rising deficits
d. A Fed near the end of its tightening cycle
3. Bond Market Misfires Spell Trouble
4. Central Banks Are Buying… and They Want Their Gold Back
5. The Repatriation of Gold
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