Copper 03 (Oct 22 - Dec 27)

[winston]

BNP Paribas predicts copper ‘collapse’ once tariffs take effect

Copper prices are set to “collapse” over the next few months as a worldwide dash to ship the metal to the US ahead of possible tariffs comes to an end.

Efforts to front-load US imports ahead of tariffs proposed by US President Donald Trump would leave the rest of the world critically short of metal.

However, prices have come under pressure after Bloomberg reported that the US administration aims to introduce tariffs on copper imports within weeks, instead of months as had been widely anticipated.

A swift implementation would leave little time for traders to divert more metal to the US, and BNP sees prices slumping to US$8,500 a tonne by the end of the second quarter as America’s appetite for metal dries up.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/c ... ake-effect

[winston]

Why tariff fears have copper following gold to record high

Futures prices have hit record highs on New York’s Comex, leading to a premium over the international benchmark in London – similar to the disconnect seen in the gold market.

That has created a lucrative opportunity for traders to ship the crucial industrial metal to America from cheaper overseas markets spanning Africa to Asia.

But the levies could be introduced within weeks instead of the months-long timeframe that had been widely anticipated, risking a painful end for traders if their copper cargoes arrive on US shores after any tariffs go into effect.

At late March, about 500,000 tonnes of copper was en route to the US, compared with normal monthly volumes of around 70,000 tonnes.

While the US has significant mines, producing 850,000 tonnes of copper last year, its consumption of the refined metal reached 1.6 million tonnes.

Imports are therefore essential to fill the gap. Around 38 per cent of deliveries come from Chile, followed by 28 per cent from Canada and 8 per cent from Mexico.

The Trump administration’s focus on copper and the potential tariffs to come are part of a broader effort to boost US production of critical minerals.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... ecord-high

[behappyalways]

China dominates global copper refining capacity
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1935745518287654989


Construction drives copper demand higher
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1935745827739517263

[behappyalways]

Copper
https://x.com/gnoble79/status/1939796451816583591

[winston]

Trump imposes 50% copper tariffs as he broadens his trade war

He would impose a 50 per cent tariff on imported copper and soon introduce long-threatened levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.

Copper is critical to electric vehicles, military hardware, the power grid and many consumer goods.

They would join duties already in place for steel, aluminum and automobile imports, though it was unclear when the new tariffs might take effect.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... -trade-war

[behappyalways]

Copper Soars To Record High As Trump Unleashes 50% Tariff
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/c ... -50-tariff

[winston]

Copper glut driven by tariff threat to deflate US price bubble

Donald Trump’s 50% tariff on copper has placed a record premium on prices of the metal in the United States that is likely to ease over the coming months as a stockpile created by traders anticipating the levy works through the system.

Trump’s announcement on Tuesday propelled prices on US platform Comex to a record US$12,526 a tonne, a premium of more than US$2,920 a tonne over the price on the London Metal Exchange, currently around US$9,600 a tonne, which the market uses as the global benchmark.

“Once all the Trump-related tariff noise dies down, we expect US copper prices to fall; converge with LME prices as US consumption is deferred”.

US copper demand was weak and predicted it would drop 16% to 1.32 million tonnes this year compared with last year.

Uncertainty over tariffs is a major reason for lower demand as it has sapped economic growth.

Source: Reuters

https://www.thestar.com.my/business/bus ... ice-bubble

[behappyalways]

US Copper Prices Crash Most On Record After Trump Confirms 50% Tariff Excludes Refined Products
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/u ... d-products

[behappyalways]

Copper Highest In Year On Supply Disruptions Collide With AI And Power Grid Demand
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/c ... id-upgrade