Oil 13 (Oct 23 - Dec 27)

[behappyalways]

OPEC+ Accelerates Oil Production Hikes Despite 'Glut' Concerns
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/opec-a ... t-concerns

[behappyalways]

Trump To Buy Tiny 1 Million Barrels For SPR As China Unleashes Record Oil Stockpiling Spree
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/trump ... ling-spree

[behappyalways]

Lukoil Declares Force Majeure At Major Iraqi Oil Field Due To New US Sanctions
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/lukoil ... -sanctions

[behappyalways]

Oil Trading Giant Warns Of Looming "Super Glut" Due To Supply Surge
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oil-t ... pply-surge

[behappyalways]

Trump Blockade Leaves $1 Billion Of Venezuelan Crude Stranded On Tankers
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/t ... ed-tankers

[behappyalways]

Visualizing All Of The World's Oil Reserves By Country
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/visual ... es-country

[winston]

vested in XLE

This Out-of-the-Box Opportunity Just Hit a New High

by Brett Eversole

After going nowhere for years, energy stocks are finally breaking out. And that tends to be a bullish signal for the sector.

Energy stocks are a great place to consider investing right now.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://tradesoftheday.com/2026/02/06/t ... -new-high/

[behappyalways]

Venezuela Oil Revenue Projected To Hit $5 Billion Under U.S. Control
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/venezu ... us-control

[winston]

Oil traders rush to hedge Iran risk after wild start to year

By Alex Longley, Yongchang Chin & Mia Gindis

Brent futures touched a seven-month high of more than US$72 (RM281.02) a barrel on Friday, and some analysts see a risk premium of as much as US$10.

There’s been unexpected strength thanks to supply disruptions in the US and Kazakhstan — as well as a shunning of sanctioned crude.

Global production is at 108 million barrels a day at the end of 2025. That’s almost three million barrels a day higher than consumption over the same period.
Home
Oil traders rush to hedge Iran risk after wild start to year
OIL & GAS
Oil traders rush to hedge Iran risk after wild start to year
By Alex Longley, Yongchang Chin & Mia Gindis / Bloomberg
21 Feb 2026, 08:49 pm

main news image
Filepix by Reuters

(Feb 21): The oil market is in the middle of its strongest start to a year since 2022 as supply shocks and sanctions confound expectations of a glut. Now traders are racing to cover themselves against the prospect of the US bombing Iran again.

A surge in activity across futures and options markets is already pulling up crude prices — Brent futures touched a seven-month high of more than US$72 (RM281.02) a barrel on Friday, and some analysts see a risk premium of as much as US$10.

The rally — Brent is up about 18% since the end of last year — represents a marked shift from just weeks ago, when traders were focused on forecasts for a record surplus, especially around now.


Instead, there’s been unexpected strength thanks to supply disruptions in the US and Kazakhstan — as well as a shunning of sanctioned crude. That’s been amplified by geopolitical risk — starting in Venezuela and extending to Iran — where President Donald Trump could order fresh strikes in a region home to about a quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade.

“You have a potential war, and that’s the overriding factor, but it’s in addition to a much tighter market than people anticipated,” said Gary Ross, a veteran oil consultant turned hedge fund manager at Black Gold Investors LLC. “I would fasten my seatbelt and wouldn’t want to be short in this market.”


Trump said in response to reporters’ questions on Friday that he’s considering a limited strike on Iran after amassing the biggest US force since 2003. Axios reported earlier in the week that a US attack on Iran could come sooner than expected and look more like a full-fledged war.

Futures surge
The number of Brent oil futures held surged to an all-time high this year, while last month saw record trading in options to protect against a further rally. Volatility has surged to the highest since the US last bombed Iran in June, and traders have — for the longest period in years — been charging premiums to protect against a surge.

“It does feel that the probability of limited strikes and limited retaliatory strikes from Iran seems less likely this time around,” said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at consultant Rystad Energy AS. “It worked last year, but right now I have the feeling it’s a nuclear deal, or a wider escalation, not something in the middle.”

That prices haven’t pushed higher is a sign of how much global output has expanded.

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright even said this week that American energy dominance has made the country’s foreign policy less beholden to supply shocks.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies steadily lifted output last year. Likewise, volumes from outside the group also hit a record, leaving global production at 108 million barrels a day at the end of 2025, according to IEA estimates. That’s almost three million barrels a day higher than consumption over the same period, its figures show.

Still, the first few weeks of January offered an example of how unexpected output curbs can quickly narrow that gap.

Planned exports of Kazakhstan’s CPC Blend crude fell to the lowest level in about a decade thanks to a combination of drone attacks, maintenance, damage to a production facility and bad weather.

At the same time, a deep freeze in the US contributed to two of the four largest declines in American oil inventories this century. Crude stockpiles alone fell by nine million barrels last week.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/793534

[winston]

Iran-US tensions: What would blocking Strait of Hormuz mean for oil, LNG?

More than $500bn in oil and gas flows through waterway annually, leaving the global economy exposed to disruptions.

By Elis Gjevori

About 33km (20 miles) at its tightest point.

About 20 million barrels of oil transited through the Strait of Hormuz each day in 2024.

In 2024, roughly a fifth of global LNG shipments moved through the corridor with Qatar accounting for the vast majority of those volumes.

The EIA estimated that in 2024, 84 percent of crude oil and condensate shipments transiting the strait headed to Asian markets.

A similar pattern appears in the gas trade with 83 percent of LNG volumes moving through the Strait of Hormuz destined for Asia.

China, India, Japan and South Korea accounted for a combined 69 percent intake of all crude oil and condensate flows through the strait last year.

Under international law, states may exercise sovereignty up to 12 nautical miles (22km) from their coastlines. At its narrowest stretch, the Strait of Hormuz and its designated shipping lanes fall entirely within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman.

In Yemen, the Houthi group, which maintains close ties with Iran, could again try to disrupt traffic through the Bab al-Mandab Strait, another vital maritime chokepoint linking the Red Sea to global trade routes.

Saudi Arabia relies heavily on the strait to export its crude, shipping roughly 5.5 million barrels per day through the corridor – more than any other country in the region.

Almost half of India’s crude oil imports and about 60 percent of its natural gas supplies move through the Strait of Hormuz.

South Korea sources roughly 60 percent of its crude via the same route while Japan relies on it for close to three-quarters of its oil imports.

Source: Al-Jazeera

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/2/2 ... or-oil-lng