Ezra 1 (May 08 - Dec 09)

[winston]

Just noticed some insiders are selling Ezra:-
1) UBS reduced their stake from 5.72% to 4.89%
2) Moon reduced his stake from 5.72% to 4.52%

Didn't Peter Lynch says that you dont have to worry when Insiders are selling ?

[-dol-]

Stocks have been known to go up significantly even after insider selling or institutional selling. This happen often enough to suggest that one should not be overly concerned with such selling. It can be just one consideration.

[Musicwhiz]

Just noticed some insiders are selling Ezra:-
1) UBS reduced their stake from 5.72% to 4.89%
2) Moon reduced his stake from 5.72% to 4.52%

Didn't Peter Lynch says that you dont have to worry when Insiders are selling ?

Yeah, you're right Winston. I am not worried.

[kennynah]

hi MW:

why are you not worried that insiders are selling?

do you mean that they are not as familiar with the operating business of the company?

of cos they could have sold for a gamut of reasons.... buy car, holiday, pay for coffin, visit macau/las vegas, or perhaps, they know that the company stock is not worth the listed amount?

so, why aren't you worried that insiders are selling? becos peter lynch said so? if you agree with his view about this point, why ?

i am very curious here..

[Musicwhiz]

hi MW:

why are you not worried that insiders are selling?

do you mean that they are not as familiar with the operating business of the company?

of cos they could have sold for a gamut of reasons.... buy car, holiday, pay for coffin, visit macau/las vegas, or perhaps, they know that the company stock is not worth the listed amount?

so, why aren't you worried that insiders are selling? becos peter lynch said so? if you agree with his view about this point, why ?

i am very curious here..

Well to keep it short, insiders sell for a variety of reasons - especially funds who may have certain objectives (e.g. sell when profit reaches 300% or something), or if they need to raise cash to invest in some other company).

Whereas buying usually only means one thing - confidence in prospects (e.g. Boustead CEO increasing his stake, Tat Hong's directors buying at 50+ cents).

I don't place too much emphasis on this because I do my own due diligence on the company, so I would prefer to form my own independent views on the company rather than trying to infer that from others' actions.

Regards.

[kennynah]

thanks for your explanation...

i didnt realize that insiders include "fund managers"...i thought insiders simply means the top management team... people with "inside" knowledge of the workings of the company...?? no?

finally, i do respect your approach that you stick to your assessment of the companies' stocks you decided to invest in.... good luck to your picks...make more money ok...

[Musicwhiz]

thanks for your explanation...

i didnt realize that insiders include "fund managers"...i thought insiders simply means the top management team... people with "inside" knowledge of the workings of the company...?? no?

finally, i do respect your approach that you stick to your assessment of the companies' stocks you decided to invest in.... good luck to your picks...make more money ok...

Sorry, if you meant "insiders" then yes that would restrict it to just the CEO, Management team and Directors; and does not include Fund Managers.

My initial assumption was that you meant Substantial Shareholders, or those with a substantial exposure to the Company; who were selling.

Well, from my experience there has not been many instances of CEOs or BOD members who sold when a company was doing well. It's mostly the case of them having personal money issues which cause them to sell, or if the company is not doing well at all.

But to be fair, if the CEO of one of my companies started selling, I would take notice la.....

[winston]

Not vested. From CIMB:-

Ezra Holdings Ltd (S$1.64) - Optimism in Asia

Asian vessel owners have been rather optimistic over the past few months as some offshore development and construction projects for 2010/11 could now be revived.

( Could Now = Not revived yet )

Day rates for shallow-water AHTS in the Asia Pacific are holding up well (US$1.50-1.77/bhp- US$2.00/bhp). We see upside to our earnings estimates for Ezra for 2010-11 if day rates in Asia can be sustained as we have conservatively assumed 5-10% decreases in revenue/bhp.

Maintain Outperform with a higher target price of S$2.14 (from S$1.47), still based on sum-of-the-parts valuation, incoprating a higher P/E of 13x CY10 on Ezra's offshore support business, 8xCY10 P/E on EOCL and 10x CYP/E on Ezion. Ezra is trading at 9x CY10 P/E or at a discount to its 5-year average of 16x.

[kennynah]

But to be fair, if the CEO of one of my companies started selling, I would take notice la.....

我真的有眼不识泰山。。。

[Musicwhiz]

我真的有眼不识泰山。。。