Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[winston]

TOL as of November 14, 2010:-


Buying on the Dip ?


The S&P has dropped 4 out of 5 sessions. Is it a buying opportunity ? Or should one be more careful now, especially if one has been a momentum player in this strong rally ?

The 5% drop is the SSE is another wake-up call. That was on top of the 2.7% drop in Korea on Thursday but that Korean dip was probably related to Options expiration.

However, when something has run up a lot, it will normally go out to look for an excuse to drop. The question then becomes how steep is the drop and when's a good time to buy on that dip ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$84.73 from US$87.40 last week. Do you know how to value Oil ?

2. Gold - US$1366 from US$1393 last week. Do you know how to value Gold ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 2985 from 3130 last week. Resistance at 3150 ? Huge 5% drop. Bought CSI300 ETF

4. HK Equities - 24223 from 24877 last week. Resistance at 25,000 ? Volume is still heavy. Bought Shenghua, CNBM, Minmetal Land and Lansen Pharma.

5. Spore Equities - 3252 from 3240 last week. When is the GE ? Sold Capital Malls Asia. Bought Chip Eng Seng.

6. US Equities - 1199 from 1226 last week. Support at 1168 and then 1138 ? Still sitting on my S&P Short ETF.

7. Japan Equities - 9725 from 9626 last week. Maybe the Japanese market is not only about the exporters. The Japanese banks looks very strong and rallied strongly recently.

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows continuing ?

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 78.23 from 76.76 last week. Reversal ?

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore

12. Market Direction - Everyone is expecting QE2 to sustain the party for another 8 months. So maybe buying on dips may be the right stategy for the next few months.

I will review this "buy on dip" strategy if the market drops below the support of 1168 on the S&P 500. And will definitely be extra careful if it dips below the strong support of 1138.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


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[winston]

TOL as of November 21, 2010:-


Fear


Can you feel the fear in the air ? And didn't they tell you that QE2 would be providing the tail-wind for you over the next 8 months ?

And what caused that fear ? Did the 1500 points drop in the HSI caused that fear ? Or the 8% drop in the SSE ? Or the 4% drop in the S&P ? Or the tightening by the Chinese ?

And while you are trying to understand that fear, did you notice the 9% rise in the Nikkei ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$81.86 from US$84.73 last week. The drop continues.

2. Gold - US$1352 from US$1366 last week. The drop continues

3. Shanghai Equities - 2889 from 2985 last week. 8% drop already.

4. HK Equities - 23604 from 24223 last week. 5% drop from range high. Bought Asia Cassava, Lansen Pharma, Rexlot and Apollo Solar. Traded Yangzhou Coal.

5. Spore Equities - 3197 from 3252 last week. When is the GE ? Bought Hotung.

6. US Equities - 1200 from 1199 last week. Support at 1168 to 1175 ? It has been a strong move since Sept 10 where the S&P was around 1050.

7. Japan Equities - 10022 from 9725 last week. Missed this strong rally

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows continuing ?

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 78.50 from 78.23 last week. Reversal ?

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore

12. Market Direction - Rational thinking dictates that one should be buying on dips because QE2 would be providing the tail-wind over the next 8 months. But are markets really rational ?

And while I struggle with the above questions, I think that it's still ok to buy any stocks that has a strong catalyst and trading at a reasonable valuation.

And it also does not hurt to pocket any good profits along the way, just in case there's any turbulence along the way.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

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[winston]

TOL as of November 28, 2010:-


Trading Break

As the market was going nowhere ( with a downward bias ), I decided to take a trading break. It was a nice short getaway and I'm now recharged for next week.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$83.87 from US$81.86 last week. Reversal because of the USD ?

2. Gold - US$1362 from US$1352 last week. Last chance before the parabolic ride ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 2872 from 2889 last week. Selling on Strength ?

4. HK Equities - 22877 from 23604 last week. Sold Rexlot and Apollo Solar. Where's the hot money from QE2 ?

5. Spore Equities - 3159 from 3197 last week. When is the GE ?

6. US Equities - 1189 from 1200 last week. Support at 1168 to 1175 ? New money from a new month and Window Dressing ?

7. Japan Equities - 10040 from 10022 last week. may be too late to buy now.

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows or Outflows ? Asian Contagion from Korea ?

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 80.43 from 78.50 last week. Reversing ?

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore

12. Window Dressing - getting closer to year end

13. Market Direction - People seems to be selling into strength rather than buying on dips. May need to be more bit careful now. Am not buying unless there's a strong catalyst.

Still expecting market to be quite resilient due to new money from a new month, Window Dressing and QE2. However, there are also strong headwinds including European Contagion, Chinese Liquidity and now, Korea.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics: Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of December 05, 2010:-


Window Dressing

We are approaching the end of the year and I'm expecting some Window Dressing activities. And I have to decide on what to sell into the stregth, over the next few weeks.

At the same time, there could be some US Tax-Selling activities because people are expecting higher Capital Gains Tax next year.

And I have to be also mindful of the "January Effect" early next year.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$89.44 from US$83.87 last week. Strong on no major news.

2. Gold - US$1414 from US$1362 last week. Is parabolic ride starting ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 2842 from 2872 last week. They are now trying to cap Food & Energy prices and drain the Liquidity from the market. Not a nice place to be invested, when the bureaucrats are asking you to do National Service. I'm reducing my exposure to China.

4. HK Equities - 23321 from 22877 last week. Bought and Sold Apollo Solar again. Sold half Minmetal Land. Where's the hot money from QE2 ? Turnover has been decreasing and the HK$ has been weak

5. Spore Equities - 3172 from 3159 last week. When is the GE ? Bought Goodpack.

6. US Equities - 1189 from 1200 last week. Support at 1168 to 1175 ? Resistance at 1225 ? New money from a new month and Window Dressing ?

7. Japan Equities - 10178 from 10040 last week. Waiting for a good entry point.

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows continuing ?

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 79.41 from 80.43 last week.

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore. A 10% drop on your US$1m condo is US$100,000. Does not take much to have a 10% drop..

12. Window Dressing - getting closer to year end

13. Liquidity - I'm starting to think that the inflows from QE2 would be less than expected. I will be watching the turnover in HK as well as the strength of the HKD for clues on Liquidity.

14. Sentiment - not as strong as before

15. Economy - Developed Markets are still weak eventhough things are supposedly improving. Can the Emerging Markets continue to decouple ?. The Unemployment numbers in the US and Europe are a concern.

16. Market Direction - Still expecting market to be quite resilient due to the new money from a New Month, Window Dressing and hopefully, QE2. Headwinds include European Contagion, Chinese Liquidity, Korea and US Tax Selling.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-
Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.


Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of December 12, 2010:-


Weaker than Expectation


The markets have been weaker than expected. This is despite the various tail-winds eg. New Month, Window Dressing, QE2, Reallocation from Bonds, Better US Economic Data, Rosy Predictions from GS etc.

In addition, the headwinds have also been getting weaker eg. Europe ( deal for Ireland ), Korea ( no more flare ups ) and Chinese tightening ( within expectation ).

So if you are still not flying properly with stronger tailwinds and weaker headwinds, then there's a need to be a bit more cautious, in case this current weakness translates into something bigger.

I have also been reviewing my portfolio to see whether there's anything that I should cut, in case things worsen.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$87.82 from US$89.44 last week. Weaker than expected.

2. Gold - US$1387 from US$1414 last week. Is gold entering the mania stage ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 2841 from 2842 last week. Inflation at 5.1%; RRR+ 50bps; Support at 2800 ? Bought CSI 300 3049

4. HK Equities - 23163 from 23321 last week. Bought Rexlot.

5. Spore Equities- 3185 from 3172 last week. When is the GE ? Bought C&O Pharma

6. US Equities - 1240 from 1189 last week. Window Dressing ?

7. Japan Equities - 10212 from 10178 last week. No chance to buy yet .

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows continuing ?

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 80.08 from 79.41 last week. Relatively Stable.

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore

12. Window Dressing - getting closer to year end

13. Liquidity - HKD @ 7.7731. 52-week range is 7.750 to 7.807; HSI Turnover around HK$75b. So where's the hot money ?

14. Sentiment - Weaker than a few weeks ago. Not as bullish as before

15. Economy - Unemployment in the Developed Markets is still a concern despite some better data

16. Market Direction - Still expecting market to be quite resilient due to Window Dressing (hopefully)


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of December 19, 2010:-


Calm Before The Storm ?

It was an uneventful week.

People were expecting Window Dressing activities and they were sorely disappointed.

Looking forward, if the markets continue to be sluggish, especially into the first week of January, there may be a need to pare down some existing short-term positions.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$88.21 from US$87.82 last week. Resistance ? Waiting for a good entry point

2. Gold - US$1377 from US$1387 last week. When will be the Parabolic Ride ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 2894 from 2841 last week. Support at 2800 ?

4. HK Equities - 22715 from 23163 last week. No Trade.

5. Spore Equities- 3153 from 3185 last week. No Trade

6. US Equities - 1244 from 1240 last week. Resistance ?

7. Japan Equities - 10304 from 10212 last week. Waiting for a good entry point

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows continuing ?

9. USD - 80.75 from 80.08 last week. Risk trades are off ?

10. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore. Will there be a bigger fool, to buy that investment property off you ?

11. Window Dressing - Now or never. Singapore Window Dressing may be muted due to the recent MAS lawsuit. Also, not expecting much US Window Dressing due to the ongoing FBI Insider Trading investigations. As for HK, there's rumors that since it's a good year, there's no need for Window Dressing this year.

12. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7788 from 7.7731 last week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807; HSI Turnover around HK$68b from HK$75b last week. So where's the hot money ?

13. Sentiment - Weaker than a few weeks ago.

14. Economy - It normally takes 4 to 7 years for things to turnaround. So why are you monitoring those weekly US economic datas unless you are trading short term vehicles eg. Futures ?

15. Market Direction - Flat. There may be a need to be a bit more careful. Liquidity and Sentiment are weak while Valuation is still relatively high.

16. Asset Allocation: Equities 36%; Gold 7%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of December 26, 2010:-


Merry X'mas & Happy New Year !


As it was a very slow week, my views have not really change from last week.

There may have been some Window Dressing activities but I certainly did not manage to see any situation that I could make some quick money.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$91.51 from US$88.21 last week. How high can it go ?

2. Gold - US$1380 from US$1377 last week. When is the Parabolic Ride ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 2835 from 2894 last week. Support at 2800?. Sold 1/2 CSI 300.

4. HK Equities - 22834 from 22715 last week. No Trade.

5. Spore Equities- 3144 from 3153 last week. Sold Goodpack

6. US Equities - 1257 from 1244 last week. Grinding Higher. Resistance ?

7. Japan Equities - 10279 from 10304 last week. Waiting for a good entry point

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows continuing ?

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 80.83 from 80.75 last week. Risky trades are off ?

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore

12. Window Dressing - not significant

13. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD 7.7808 from HKD @ 7.7788 last week. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807; HSI Turnover @ HK$54b from HK$68b last week. Where's the hot money ?

14. Sentiment - Weaker than a few weeks ago. Not as bullish as before

15. Economy - Things may be getting better but are stock prices ahead of the recovery ?

16. Market Direction - Flat with negative bias. Liquidity and Sentiment are weak while Valuation is still relatively high.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of January 2, 2011:-


Happy New Year !

It's a New Year and I'm trying to force myself to be a bit more postive and to focus on the half full part of the glass.

It's actually quite a difficult task for me, as throughout my career, I've to focus on the half empty part of the glass. My career always requires me to be always to be on the look out for risks and then try to mitigate those risks.

Anyway, after struggling for a while, the following are some positives for you:-

1) The economies of the Emerging Markets are doing quite well, despite the slow growth in the Developed Markets. (However, I have to remind myself that economic strength does not automatically translate to higher share prices).

2) The emerging middle class of the world would continue to drive demand for Commodities and growth in various industries eg. IT, Leisure, Properties, Education, Healthcare, Fast Food etc.

3) The Liquidity situation should also be quite good for Equities eg. QE2, Outflows from Bonds, High Corporate Cash level, Low Interest Rates etc.


I'm sure that I can find a few more positives and when I do, I will update the "Rewards Out There" thread, located in the "Other Investment Ideas" section. In the meantime, let's focus on the following:


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$91.40 from US$91.51 last week. Too many bullish forecasts for oil

2. Gold - US$1419 from US$1380 last week. Long wait for the Parabolic Ride

3. Shanghai Equities - 2808 from 2835 from 2894 last week. Support at 2700?

4. HK Equities - 23035 from 22834 last week. Support at 22,500 ? No Trade.

5. Spore Equities- 3190 from 3144 last week. Sold Chip Eng Seng; Sold 20% Stamford Land

6. US Equities - 1258 from 1257 last week. Grinding Higher. Topping process ?

7. Japan Equities - 10229 from 10279 last week. Waiting for a good entry point

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows continuing.

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 79.29 from 80.83 last week. Risky trades are on ?

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore

12. Window Dressing - not significant. Waiting for the January Effect now.

13. Liquidity - Improving ? HKD 7.7736 from HKD 7.7808 last week. Some inflows. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807; HSI Turnover low but that could be due to the holidays.

14. Sentiment - Weaker than a few weeks ago. Not as bullish as before

15. Economy - Things may be getting better but stock prices could also have run ahead of the recovery

16. Market Direction - Flat with positive bias ? Liquidity has improved slightly as shown by the strength of the HKD. However, Sentiment is still quite weak. There was also not much Year-End Window Dressing activities. Valuation is still relatively high.

I dont know where the market is heading but I'm starting to get uncomfortable again. The indices have reached the pre-Lehmann levels but the problems are still out there eg. High Unemployment Rate in the Developed Markets, US Housing woes, European Contagion, High Commodity prices, Euphoric Property Prices in HK, China and Spore, Higher Chinese Interest Rates, Geopolitical tensions in the Korean Peninsula & Middle East etc. Didn't I tell you tell that it's very easy for me to focus on the half-empty part of the glass ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of January 9, 2011:-


January Effect

We've completed the first week of January but I dont really see any signs of that so called "January Effect".

To be fair, the markets did start off strong on January 3 but it has been weak thereafter.

My spidey sense are tingling again but what is it trying to warn me about ? Is it of impending danger or is it because that I'm too underweight Equities ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$88.48 from US$91.40 last week. Was it the strong USD that was driving Oil lower ?

2. Gold - US$1369 from US$1419 last week. Buying opportunity or time to lock in a decade of profits ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 2839 from 2808 last week. Lower Highs and Lower Lows ? Support at 2700? Headwinds include higher interest rates, higher raw material costs, lower margins, slower growth and NPLs.

4. HK Equities - 23687 from 23035 last week. Support at 22,500 ? Sold CNBM and Rexlot.

5. Spore Equities- 3261 from 3190 last week. Sold another 20% Stamford Land

6. US Equities - 1272 from 1258 last week. Grinding Higher. Earnings season starts again next week. The poor jobs data as well as the latest court ruling against the banks could spoil the party.

7. Japan Equities - 10541 from 10229 last week. Long wait for a good entry point

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows continuing

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 81.46 from 79.29 last week. Risky trades are off ?

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore

12. January Effect - not that significant

13. Liquidity - HKD 7.7723 from HKD 7.7736 last week. Weaker. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807;
HSI Turnover improved a lot from the previous weak.

14. Sentiment - Better than last week but not as bullish as in early November

15. Economy - Does it feel that things are getting better in the Developed Markets?

16. Market Direction - Slightly positive due to January Effect & US Earnings Season. Headwinds include poor US jobs data, ruling against the US banks, European Contagion, Chinese tightening and high price of Commodities especially Oil.


When something that you are expecting, does not materialize, it's normally a warning sign. And we have plenty of warning signs lately:
1) Window Dressing did not materialize
2) Lower Interest Rates did not materialize from QE2
3) Lower USD did not materialize
4) Better US Job Data did not materialize yesterday
5) January Effect is also starting to not materialize

At the same time, you also have the surprise court ruling against the Banks ( which supposedly would be the next Leaders of the rally ). And if Earning from Alcoa, Intel and JPM are also below expectations next week, that could be the straw that will break the camel's back ....


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of January 16, 2011:-


US Earnings Season


The US earnings seasons is here again and that could be the catalysts for things to go higher.

It does not matter that some of the numbers are made up eg. JPM's lower provisions. It also does not matter that Revenue is less than expected eg. AA & JPM. And it also does not matter that INTC is not in the mobile and tablets space.

What matters is that there's an earnings announcement and thereafter, people are supposedly buying. But who's buying ? Is it Ah Ben's friends, the PPT, because his QE2 is not woking ? Thereafter, are the machinese following the PPT, as it's a momentum trade ?

Anyway, I'm not convinced by the earnings result so far but who am I to argue with the market ....


The week in review:-

1. Oil - US$91.67 from US$88.48 from US$91.40 last week. At what price would Oil start to bring things down ?

2. Gold - US$1360 from US$1369 from US$1419 last week. Are the hot money leaving gold for other assets ?

3. Shanghai Equities - 2791 from 2839 from 2808 last week. Support at 2700 ? SSE would probably be weak going into the week-long CNY holidays.

4. HK Equities - 24283 from 23687 from 23035 last week. Nice rally. Bought China Vanadium and Hidili. Traded Sinofert.

5. Spore Equities- 3246 from 3261 from 3190 last week. No trade.

6. US Equities- 1293 from 1272 from 1258 last week. Climbing a wall of worry

7. Japan Equities - 10499 from 10541 from 10229 last week. Still waiting.

8. Emerging Markets - Inflows continuing ?

9. Iran - Non-event now ?

10. USD - 79.37 from 81.46 from 79.29 last week. Risky trades are on again ?

11. Properties - various programs to curb prices in HK, China and Singapore. Some "experts" are saying that this is a good time to buy as the overhang has been removed. Personally, I think there would be more programs..

12. January Effect - not that significant

13. Liquidity - HKD 7.7743 from HKD 7.7723 from HKD 7.7736 last week. Weaker. 52-week range is 7.750-7.807; However, HSI Turnover has improved a lot from the previous weak to an average of HK$81.3b per day for the week.

14. Sentiment - Still bullish but not as bullish as in early November

15. Economy - Does it feel that things are getting better in the Developed Markets? And if the Developed Markets are not that hot, why would the Emerging Markets be burning ? Decoupling or Ignorance ? Do you really trust those numbers from the Emerging Markets ?

16. Market Direction - Slightly positive due to January Effect & US Earnings. Headwinds include poor US jobs data, ruling against the US banks, European Contagion, Chinese & India tightening and high price of Commodities, especially Oil.


I'm not expecting a Crash but a 10% correction is not outside my expectation. The question is when will we get that 10% correction ? Would it be after prices have gone up another 20% or would it be from here ?

As I cant really see things with high visibility, I'm keeping a healthy level of Cash. I will only buy when my stock has got a good catalyst and I also need to remind myself to take any windfall profits.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments.


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.