Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[kennynah]

nice sine curve

[winston]

TOL as of Oct 28, 2012:-



Buy or Sell ?

With the almost 400 points drop in the Dow this week, the bears are saying that the rally is over.

And were these bears able to predict the rally, in the first place ?

If they did not predict the rally in the first place, why would they be correct this time ?


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$86 from US$90 last week from US$92 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower US$1712 from US$1722 last week from US$1755 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Lower. US$3.56 from US$3.63 last week from US$3.70 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1412 from 1433 last week from 1429 the previous week. Support at 1399 ?

2. HK Equities - Flat. 21546 from 21552 last week from 21136 the previous week. Resistance at 21,700. Support at 18,900. Bought Zhaojin.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2066 from 2128 last week from 2105 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3058 from 3049 last week from 3042 the previous week. Bought Religare. Added to Biosensors.

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 8933 from 9003 last week from 8534 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. JPY - Weaker. 79.63 from 79.37 last week from 78.43 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Stronger. 2.4883 from 2.4980 last week from 2.5033 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Stronger. 1.0371 from 1.0355 last week from 1.0238 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Stronger. 1.267 from 1.2621 last week from 1.2513 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR - Weaker. 1.2937 from 1.3022 last week from 1.2957 the previous week.

6. HKD - Flat. 7.7503 from 7.7504 last week from 7.7517 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7500 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 79.99 from 79.62 last week from 79.68 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-Off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 4.90% from 4.77% last week from 4.98% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.59% from 5.37% last week from 5.63% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.75% from 1.76% last week from 1.66% the previous week.

4. Philippines cut interest rates


Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets- Stronger. Inflows from Inflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$59b from HK$55b last week from HK$50b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Complacent



Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

3. Risk Management - What's the point of sitting on Cash if you are not going to deploy it ?

4. Properties - HK: 15% additional stamp duty on corporate and non-permanent-resident buyers

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Still waiting

6. US Market Direction - Friday - Lower

It looks like US Earnings are finally affecting the stock market.

This is not really unexpected, as the "experts" have been parroting this for a while.

Now that the dip is here, is this a buying opportunity or a trap ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Nov 04, 2012:-

New Month Again



It's a new month and the money from a new month, should be flowing in again.

Therefore, I need to remind myself to be a bit careful, if I want to be short the market.

However, the market action of the past two weeks is also abit worrisome.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$85 from US$86 last week from US$90 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower US$1678 from US$1712 last week from US$1722 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Lower. US$3.48 from US$3.56 from the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Flat. 1414 from 1412 from 1433 last week from 1429 the previous week. Support at 1399 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22111 from 21546 last week from 21552 the previous week. Resistance at 22,600. Support at 18,900. Sold Zhaojin.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2117 from 2066 last week from 2128 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3041 from 3058 last week from 3049 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 9051 from 8933 last week from 9003 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-Off

1. JPY - Weaker. 80.49 from 79.63 last week from 79.37 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. MYR to SGD - Weaker. 2.494 from 2.488 last week from 2.498 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Weaker. 1.034 from 1.037 from 1.036 last week from 1.024 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Flat. 1.266 from 1.267 last week from 1.262 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR - Weaker. 1.2836 from 1.2937 last week from 1.3022 the previous week.

6. HKD - Flat. 7.7503 from 7.7503 last week from 7.7504 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7500 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 80.55 from 79.99 last week from 79.62 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-Off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 4.94% from 4.90% last week from 4.77% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.66% from 5.59% last week from 5.37% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.71% from 1.75% last week from 1.76% the previous week.


Risk-On

1. Emerging Markets- Stronger. Inflows from Inflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$54b from HK$59b last week from HK$55b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Mixed


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

3. Risk Management - It's time to think about "Return OF Capital" and not "Return ON Capital"

4. Properties - HK: Everyone in HK that I spoke to recently, seemed to be a bit concerned about the new measures.

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Still waiting

6. US Market Direction - Friday - Lower

The drop on Friday was a bit unexpected.

But the rise on Thursday was also unexpected.

So it looks like the rise on Thursday, was a technical rebound from the drop last week.

Markets dont looked too strong to me so I'm reminding myself to be a bit careful.

However, it's a new month and there's new money flowing in from a new month again..


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Nov 11, 2012:-



Confused

The 400 points drop in the Dow this week, left a lot of "experts" confused.

Didn't they claim that "QE Infinity" will lift the markets to the moon ?

And there's also no shortage of reports by the "perma-bears", claiming to have predicted the 400 points plunge.

So where do we go from here ?

"Buy on the Dip" or "Sell on the Rebound" ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Flat

1. Oil - Flat. US$86 from US$85 last week from US$86 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1731 from US$1678 last week from US$1712 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Flat. US$3.44 from US$3.48 last week from US$3.56 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1380 from 1414 last week from 1412 the previous week. Support at 1399 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21384 from 22111 last week from 21546 the previous week. Resistance at 22,600. Support at 18,900. Traded Zhaojin. Bought Galaxy & Greentown

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2069 from 2117 last week from 2066 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3010 from 3041 last week from 3058 the previous week. Traded Jardine Strategic. Sold 1/2 Biosensors; Sold Religare. Bought Semb Corp.

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 8758 from 9051 last week from 8933 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - Stronger. 79.50 from 80.49 last week from 79.63 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. SGD to MYR - Stronger. 2.5002 from 2.494 last week from 2.488 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Flat. 1.038 from 1.034 last week from 1.037 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Higher. 1.2723 from 1.266 last week from 1.267 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - Weaker. 1.2712 from 1.2836 last week from 1.2937 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - Flat. 7.7510 from 7.7503 last week from 7.7503 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Stronger. 81.03 from 80.55 last week from 79.99 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-Off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 4.97% from 4.94% last week from 4.90% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.82% from 5.66% last week from 5.59% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.61% from 1.71% last week from 1.75% the previous week.


Risk-Off

1. Emerging Markets- Stronger. Inflows from Inflows last week from Inflows the previous week; http://www.epfr.com

2 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$60b from HK$54b last week from HK$59b the previous week

3. Sentiment - Unease


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Muddling through Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

3. Risk Management - Are your Stops and Trailing Stops in place already ?

4. Properties - Everyone around me believe that real estate prices will not drop.

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - On the technical rebound ?

6. US Market Direction- Lower

It looks like there could be a change in sentiment.

And if we do not get a technical rebound within a short time, I would need to reevaluate my strategy.

As of now, I stll think that it's a buying opportunity.

However, it also does not hurt to be a bit careful, in case I'm wrong.

If you have been in this business for a while, you would know that it's best to remain flexible.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Nov 18, 2012:-



Denial ?

The Dow is now down around 700 points and has still not rebounded.

Is this the beginning of the end ?

Has "Unease" turned into "Denial" now, as shown below ?




The week in review:-


Commodities - Flat

1. Oil - Flat. US$87 from US$86 last week from US$85 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1713 from US$1731 last week from US$1678 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Flat. US$3.45 from US$3.44 last week from US$3.48 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1360 from 1380 last week from 1414 the previous week. Next Support of 1335 ?

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21159 from 21384 last week from 22111 the previous week. Resistance at 22,600. Support at 20800 then 20500. Traded CSR. Sold Galaxy & Greentown. Bought Tencent, Zhaojin and Gapack

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2015 from 2069 last week from 2117 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 2946 from 3010 last week from 3041 the previous week. Bought Noble, QAF and Jardine Strategic

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 9024 from 8758 last week from 9051 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - Higher. 81.35 from 79.50 last week from 80.49 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. SGD to MYR - Higher. 2.5035 from 2.5002 last week from 2.494 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Lower. 1.034 from 1.038 last week from 1.034 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Lower. 1.2688 from 1.2723 last week from 1.266 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - Lower. 1.2741 from 1.2712 last week from 1.2836 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - Higher. 7.7524 from 7.7510 last week from 7.7503 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Higher. 81.19 from 81.03 last week from 80.55 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-Off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.87% from 4.97% last week from 4.94% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.87% from 5.82% last week from 5.66% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.58% from 1.61% last week from 1.71% the previous week.


Risk-Off

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$49b from HK$60b last week from HK$54b the previous week

2. Sentiment - Unease


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

3. Risk Management - Do you really think that you would be able to get out ?

4. Properties - Lower transactions

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Waiting for the technical rebound ?

6. US Market Direction- Lower

The last few weeks have not being good for the Bulls.

And there has been a change in sentiment.

Are people waiting for the technical rebound to sell ?

Or are they waiting for things to drop further, before they start buying ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Nov 25, 2012:-




Hope

When the markets were dropping over the past few weeks, the bulls were hanging in there and hoping for a rebound.

However, that was a major violation of the trading rules ie. "Do not hope for a move so much, that your trade is based solely on HOPE. And although HOPE is a great virtue in other areas of life, it can be a hindrance to a trader ".

Now that the market has rebounded, would you be continuing to hope or would you be raising some cash in case, things drops again ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$88.26 from US$87 last week from US$86 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1752 from US$1713 last week from US$1731 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Higher. US$3.53 from US$3.45 last week from US$3.44 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1409 from 1360 last week from 1380 the previous week. Support of 1335 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 21914 from 21159 last week from 21384 the previous week. Resistance at 22,600. Support at 20800. Traded Weigao & Zhaojin. Sold Tencent.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2027 from 2015 last week from 2069 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 2989 from 2946 last week from 3010 the previous week. Sold Jardine Strategic and Singpost.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 9367 from 9024 last week from 8758 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - Higher. 82.40 from 81.35 last week from 79.50 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. SGD to MYR - Lower. 2.5012 from 2.5035 last week from 2.5002 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - Higher. 1.0459 from 1.034 last week from 1.038 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - Higher. 1.2792 from 1.2688 last week from 1.2723 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - Higher. 1.2975 from 1.2741 last week from 1.2712 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - Lower. 7.7506 from 7.7524 last week from 7.7510 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Lower. 80.21 from 81.19 last week from 81.03 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-On

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.75% from 4.87% last week from 4.97% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.62% from 5.87% last week from 5.82% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.69% from 1.58% last week from 1.61% the previous week.


Risk-On

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$47b from HK$49b last week from HK$60b the previous week

2. Sentiment - Hope ?


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing

3. Risk Management - What did you do when the markets were dropping ? Was that a correct strategy ?

4. Properties - HK: Money is moving out of Housing into Parking Spots ?

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Were you shorting when the markets were dropping ?

6. US Market Direction- Higher

Now that the market has rebounded, would the focus now, be shifted back to the Fiscal Cliff, Europe and the Middle East ?

And do you really see anything positive on the Fiscal Cliff, Europe and the Middle East ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 02, 2012:-

Relief



Now that the market has rebounded, where do we go from here ?

Currently, the markets seems to have shrugged off the "expert's opinion" that the world will end from the Fiscal Cliff, European Contagion and Chinese Slowdown.

And there's also plenty of money floating around, to buy on any dips.

So sentiments seems to be quite bullish for the time being.


The week in review:-


Commodities - Higher

1. Oil - Higher. US$88.95 from US$88.26 last week from US$87 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1714 from US$1752 last week from US$1713 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Higher. US$3.62 from US$3.53 last week from US$3.45 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1416 from 1409 last week from 1360 the previous week. Support of 1335 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22030 from 21914 last week from 21159 the previous week. Resistance at 22,600. Support at 20800. Traded Zhaojin. Sold Minmetal Land.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 1980 from 2027 last week from 2015 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3072 from 2989 last week from 2946 the previous week. Sold Noble and SembCorp Industries. Bought Jardine Strategic.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 9446 from 9367 last week from 9024 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 82.48 from 82.40 last week from 81.35 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.4896 from 2.5012 last week from 2.5035 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 1.0430 from 1.0459 last week from 1.034 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.2735 from 1.2792 last week from 1.2688 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.2982 from 1.2975 last week from 1.2741 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7502 from 7.7506 last week from 7.7524 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 80.13 from 80.21 last week from 81.19 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 4.50% from 4.75% last week from 4.87% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.32% from 5.62% last week from 5.87% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 1.62% from 1.69% last week from 1.58% the previous week.


Risk-On

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$57b from HK$47b last week from HK$49b the previous week

2. Sentiment - Complacent


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Exports Shock, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Special Dividends

3. Risk Management - What would you be doing when the market suddenly plunge ?

4. Properties - If your Real Estate agent is not doing well, then where are properties headed ?

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No position

6. US Market Direction- Flat

It has been a good two weeks.

And the shorts have been caught again.

Since it's also a new month, there should be new money flowing in again.

In addition, the Santa Claus Rally, Window Dressing and January Effect is not too far away.

Therefore, any dip in the next two weeks could be a buying opportunity. But why am I so afraid ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 09, 2012:-

Optimism



What a difference a few weeks make !

And it was not too long ago, that the markets were plunging and everyone was afraid.

So what has changed since then ?

Has economic conditions really changed that much ?

Has business conditions really changed that much ?

Do you know why you are buying or selling ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$85.98 from US$88.95 last week from US$88.26 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1706 from US$1714 last week from US$1752 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Higher. US$3.66 from US$3.62 last week from US$3.53 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Flat. 1418 from 1416 last week from 1409 the previous week. Support of 1335 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22191 from 22030 last week from 21914 the previous week. Resistance at 22,600. Support at 20800. Added to Zhaojin. Sold Gapack

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2062 from 1980 last week from 2027 the previous week. Vested A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3107 from 3072 last week from 2989 the previous week. Sold Jardine Strategic and 1/2 Hutch Port.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 9527 from 9446 last week from 9367 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - Flat. 82.46 from 82.48 last week from 82.40 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5034 from 2.4896 last week from 2.5012 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 1.0493 from 1.0430 last week from 1.0459 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.2807 from 1.2735 last week from 1.2792 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2926 from 1.2982 last week from 1.2975 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7501 from 7.7502 last week from 7.7506 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Higher. 80.42 from 80.13 last week from 80.21 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Flat

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat; 4.53% from 4.50% last week from 4.75% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 5.46% from 5.32% last week from 5.62% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat. 1.62% from 1.62% last week from 1.69% the previous week.


Risk-On

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Higher. HK$68b from HK$57b last week from HK$47b the previous week

2. Sentiment - Optimistic


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery

3. Risk Management - Greed, Fear, Ignorance, Arrogance; Which one will take you down the next round ?

4. Properties - Transactions are down but prices are still high

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No position

6. Friday's US Market Direction- Higher

It has been a good three weeks.

And the Santa Claus Rally, Year End Window Dressing and January Effect, is also not too far away.

Therefore, any dip in the next two weeks should be a buying opportunity.

But are we not too complacent, as the Fiscal Cliff is still not resolved, Europe is still in trouble and there are still issues in the Middle East and China ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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[winston]

TOL as of Dec 16, 2012:-

Window Dressing



It's about two weeks to the end of the year.

So Window Dressing should be in full swing now.

However, the market has been quite good this year and there's also some tax-selling in the US.

Therefore, will the Santa Rally really be there this year ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$86.81 from US$85.98 last week from US$88.95 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1698 from US$1706 last week from US$1714 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Copper - Flat. US$3.68 from US$3.66 last week from US$3.62 the previous week.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Flat. 1414 from 1418 last week from 1416 the previous week. Support of 1335 ?

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22606 from 22191 last week from 22030 the previous week. At Resistance of 22,600. Next Resistance @ 22800 then 23,700. Support at 20800. Buy CLP & Minmetal Land. Sold A50.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2151 from 2062 last week from 1980 the previous week. Sold A50 ETF.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3168 from 3107 last week from 3072 the previous week. Sold Biosensors, QAF and Hutch Port.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 9738 from 9527 last week from 9446 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 83.50 from 82.46 last week from 82.48 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 84.17.

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5073 from 2.5034 last week from 2.4896 the previous week. Vested. Upcoming GE a concern.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 1.0570 from 1.0493 last week from 1.0430 the previous week.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.2886 from 1.2807 last week from 1.2735 the previous week ; H 1.36; L 1.24; Vested

5. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3158 from 1.2926 last week from 1.2982 the previous week.

6. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.750 from 7.7501 last week from 7.7502 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

7. Dollar Index - Higher. 79.57 from 80.42 last week from 80.13 the previous week.


Interest Rates - Risk-On

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 4.60% from 4.53% last week from 4.50% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 5.39% from 5.46% last week from 5.32% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 1.70% from 1.62% last week from 1.62% the previous week.


Risk-On

1 Average Daily Turnover on HKEX - Lower. HK$64b from HK$68b last week from HK$57b the previous week

2. Sentiment - Optimistic


Others

1. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak Global Economy, Elevated Commodity Prices, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Tighter Credit Requirements, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Fiscal Cliff , Demographics, Chinese Slowdown

2. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery

3. Risk Management - Reminder: "Whoever that the gods want to destroy, they first make him confident"

4. Properties - If you are buying now, what do you think is a realistic return ?

5. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - Keeping an eye for mid January.

6. Window Dressing - Should be in full swing next week

7. US Market Direction- Flat

The US market has not been going anywhere for a week.

Is it "Distribution", "Calm before The Storm" or "Pause before the Gap Upwards" ?

Intuitively, the market should go higher as it's Window Dressing time.

However, my exposure to Equities has been declining steadily, to only 23% now.

Why have I been selling when I know that there's the "Santa Rally", "Year End Window Dressing" and the "January Effect" just around the corner ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[iam802]

I still have some long positions. (target to close in the coming week)

Let's see if Santa brings me the rally.