Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 04, 2026

januaryeffect.png

January Effect?

The "January Effect" is a theory suggesting that stock prices experience a seasonal increase during January, outperforming other months of the year.

This supposed anomaly is most often observed in small-cap stocks and is typically attributed to year-end investor behavior eg. tax-loss harvesting etc.

Anyway, the "CNN Greed & Fear Index" is now at "Neutral 45" from "Greed 56" last week and "Extreme Fear 24" just a month ago.

Was the rise over the past few weeks due to "Window Dressing", the "Santa Rally" and now, the January Effect?

Meanwhile, Cryptos are still weak (measure of sentiment) while the VIX still shows "complacency".

The following are some good articles this week, from Investor Place:-

1. The Signs We’re Watching For When To Bail
a. Speculation over substance
b. Easy money and leverage
c. New Financial Products
d. Retail Crowding In
e. Headline-Grabbing deals

2. Tech Predictions 2026: The Year Software Crawls Into Physical Reality
a. Factory Robots Are Actually Working Now
b. Robotaxis Stop Being a ‘San Francisco Thing’
c. AI Glasses Bring Ambient Intelligence Mainstream
d. Nvidia’s Lock on AI Chips Is Breaking
e. Nuclear SMRs Hit Criticality: Proof Over Promises

I'm currently reflecting on the following:-
1. Can AI & Tech continue to rally and how long would it take for their EPS to catch up to their lofty valuations?
2. How long more do I have to wait for the "Non-Tech" sectors to become "Extreme Value Investments" since they are now in a "slow motion train wreck" situation?

There are many moving parts out there now and I will try to look at the "Big Picture" next week.

In the meantime, we now have this issue in Venezeula while there are protests in Iran and the Saudis and UAE are fighting in Yemen, not to mentioned the Ukraine War.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
2. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
3. Jan 2026: January Effect; Small Caps Outperformance
4. Jan 27 & 28: FOMC meeting
5. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (38% from 39% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 29% (8 Counters); Tariff;
b. US: 34% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 37% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Flat; US$57 from US$57 last week from US$58 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4342 from US$4563 from US$4330;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$72 from US$80 from US$59;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.70 from US$5.85 from US$5.36;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$89,946 ( @ 7.41 AM, Jan 03, 2026) from US$87,358 last week from US$90,335 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "Neutral 45" from "Greed 56" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6858 from 6930 last week from 6835 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Higher; 26302 from 25818 last week from 25691 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3969 from 3964 last week from 3890 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1670 from 1677 last week from 1666 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought PPB
d. Sold Tenaga


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 03, 2026 @ 7.45 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 157 from 157 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.15 from 3.15 from 3.17;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.17 from 1.18 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7917 from 7.7715 from 7.7825;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Flat; 4.05 from 4.05 from 4.10;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.29 from 1.28 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.00 from 7.01 from 7.05;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 98.43 from 98.05 from 98.39; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.20% from 4.13% from 4.19%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 3.48% from 3.48% from 3.52%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.24 from 97.16 from 97.07;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 11, 2026

Earnings.jpg

US Earnings Season

It will be US Earnings Season soon and expectations are quite high that the party can continue for a little while more.

Fourth-quarter earnings are now forecast to increase 8.1%, up from estimates for 7.2% at the end of September.

For Calendar Year 2026, FactSet is currently projecting earnings to accelerate to a 14.5% annual pace.

Meanwhile, the "CNN Greed & Fear Index" has increased to "Neutral 51" up from "Neutral 45" last week and "Extreme Fear 24" just a month ago.

The VIX is also still low and showing "complacency".

The following are some good articles this week:-

1. Market 360: Five Predictions for 2026:-
a. Kevin Hassett Should Be Named the Next Federal Reserve Chair
b. At Least Two More Key Interest Rate Cuts in 2026
c. AI Revolution & Data Center Boom Accelerates
d. U.S. Economy on Track to Achieve 5% GDP Growth
e. Earnings Momentum Set to Hit the Gas in 2026

2. Business Times: 2026 Outlook:-
a. Look for gradual growth globally
b. Expect inflation to be “sticky” in the US but low elsewhere
c. Navigate tricky US rate-cut decisions
d. Keep investors on their toes with geopolitics
e. Anticipate consequences from US fiscal policy dominance

3. AWS: Five Technology Predictions That Will Transform How We Live
a. AI companions will redefine human connection
b. Developers will become modern renaissance polymaths
c. Quantum computing demands immediate security action
d. Military innovation will accelerate civilian technology
e. Education will become truly personalized

The Optimists are arguing that we will remain in a bull market that is supported by strong earnings growth, easing financial conditions and growth-supportive policies.

The Pessimists are arguing that valuations are stretched, inflation is stubbornly high especially in the US and it is only a matter of time before fiscal challenges result in higher bond yields, undermining support for equity markets.

As for myself, I'm still "cautiously bearish" but my exposure to equities has slowly crept up to 42% of my Liquid Assets. (I would be more comfortable with an exposure to Equities of about 30%).

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
2. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
3. Jan 14: Malaysia - UMNO AGM
4. Jan 27 & 28: FOMC meeting
5. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown?
6. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (42% from 38% last week from 39% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 27% (8 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 32% (9 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 41% (10 Counters); Dividends & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$59 from US$57 last week from US$57 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4501 from US$4342 from US$4563;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$79 from US$72 from US$80; Resistance: US$84;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.90 from US$5.70 from US$5.85;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$90,586 (@ 8.00 AM, Jan 10, 2026) from US$89,946 last week from US$87,358 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "Neutral 51" from "Neutral 45" last week from "Greed 56" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 6966 from 6858 last week from 6930 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.6
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Lower; 26231 from 26302 last week from 25818 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4120 from 3969 last week from 3964 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1686 from 1670 last week from 1677 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to PPB
d. Bought CIMB
e. Sold 40% DNEX


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 09, 2026 @ 5.25 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 158 from 157 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.16 from 3.15 from 3.15;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.18;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7949 from 7.7917 from 7.7715;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.07 from 4.05 from 4.05;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.98 from 7.00 from 7.01;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.05 from 98.43 from 98.05;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.17% from 4.20% from 4.13%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher 3.54% from 3.48% from 3.48%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.69 from 97.24 from 97.16;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Jan 18, 2026

Buy, Sell or Hold.jpg

Sell, Hold or Buy?

The markets are still grinding higher.

The "CNN Greed & Fear Index" has increased to "Greed 62" this week from "Neutral 51" last week from "Extreme Fear 24" about a month ago.

The VIX is still low and still showing "complacency".

The following are some good investment articles this week:-

1. Business Times: Key Themes for Global Markets This Year:-
a. Global AI leadership divide
b. High valuations across multiple regions
c. Rate cuts in the West
d. Rate hikes in the East eg. Japan
e. Potential currency volatility

2. Daily Wealth: For Now, We Can Expect Stocks to Keep Moving Higher:-
a. Market Breadth Is Expanding; The NYSE Advance/Decline line is hitting all-time highs, right alongside the overall market
b. No Concentration Risk; The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is hitting highs as well
c. About 60% of stocks are in an uptrend. It’s not low enough to signal a divergence. And it’s not high enough to signal an overheated market.

3. Wolfe Research: Eight risks that could spark stock declines in 2026
a. Rise in retail investors
b. Investors have been lulled by this compression in volatility
c. More debt issuance and the circular nature of some AI sector deals are a flashing sign that "the current environment is transforming into a bubble."
d. The U.S. federal debt load is now "on a completely unsustainable long-term trajectory"
e. There is "significant uncertainty" around the level and outlook for long-term interest rates
f. Should more credit issues surface and become widespread, "this would serve as a downside catalyst for both the economy and equity markets"
g. Rising leverage in multi-strategy hedge funds, coupled with financial deregulation, could exaggerate equity market declines to extremes as well
h. Outside of the U.S., a "meltdown" in Japanese sovereign debt yields due to "unexpected policy changes" could "inspire sharp drawdowns"

As for myself, I'm still "cautiously bearish" but my exposure to equities has slowly crept up to 49% of my Liquid Assets from just 38% two weeks ago. (I should try to reduce my exposure to about 30% but it's easier said than done).

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
2. War in Iran?
3. War in Cuba?
4. War in Colombia?
5. Jan 19: WEF @ Davos
6. Jan 27 & 28: FOMC meeting
7. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown?
8. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (49% from 42% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 35% (8 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 24% (8 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 41% (11 Counters); Banks & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Flat; US$59 from US$59 last week from US$57 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4595 from US$4501 from US$4342;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$89 from US$79 from US$72; Resistance: US$84;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.83 from US$5.90 from US$5.70;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$95,552 (@ 8.10 AM on Jan 17, 2026) from US$90,586 (@ 8.00 AM, Jan 10, 2026) from US$89,946 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "Greed 62" from "Neutral 51" last week from "Neutral 45" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6940 from 6966 last week from 6858 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.6
i. Bought Trip.com (TCOM)
j. Sold Phillip Morris (PM)
k. Sold Lockheed Martin (LMT)

2. HK Equities; Higher; 26795 from 26231 last week from 26302 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Trip.com (9961)
f. Bought CATL (3750)

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4102 from 4120 last week from 3969 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1713 from 1686 last week from 1670 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought IJM


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 16, 2026 @ 3.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 158 from 158 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.15 from 3.16 from 3.15;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7998 from 7.7949 from 7.7917;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.06 from 4.07 from 4.05;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.97 from 6.98 from 7.00;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.33 from 99.05 from 98.43;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.23% from 4.17% from 4.20%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.60% from 3.54% from 3.48%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.82 from 97.69 from 97.24;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

The Big Picture (Update)

Big Picture.jpg

There are still many uncertainties and moving parts out there so it's time to look at the "Big Picture" again

1. Interest Rates:- The Feds are expected to make 2 or 3 cuts in 2026 unless the new Fed Chair decides to be adventurous. Various moving parts here including:-
a. Things are slowing down in the US
b. There are about $28t of the National Debt to be refinanced over the next four years and
c. Inflation is creeping in from the tariffs
Lower interest rates in 2026 is starting to be a non-event while some "experts' are expecting interest rates to rise in 2027.

2. USD:- There is still no alternative to the USD yet. However, a mere 2% shift away from US Assets, can easily result in a US$1t outflow. The Europeans were deeply offended at the WEF, while 40 year Japanese Bonds are now touching 4%.

3. Japan:- The new PM wants to unleash Abenomics 2.0. If that's the case, the JPY will weaken, leading to higher inflation. A weaker JPY will be good for the Japanese Trading Houses and the Nikkei 225. However, if inflation rises a lot, the BOJ may be forced to increase interest rates, which may result in more Japanese money flowing back to Japan. The Nikkei is now close to the record high though.

4. Commodities:- There is now a speculative FOMO rally in Precious Metals, Copper, Rare Earth and Uranium. However, demand for Commodities are not really that strong due to the global slowdown. The Speculative FOMO rally must be allowed to run it's course before demand destruction kicks in eg. Cocoa. A strong USD will not be good for Commodities. I will not be chasing this FOMO rally in Commodities.

5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is adding to the world's Liquidity. There's supposedly a lot of money (US$7t?) on the sidelines in China, waiting to buy on any dips. The US is now starting QE again. At the last crisis, about US$16t were deployed between the Feds, ECB, BoJ and PBOC. For the next crisis, will they be able to coordinate things again with the bad relationships between them now?

6. Global Economy:- K Economy with AI & Tech on one side and the traditional businesses on the other. A mild global recession is probably the base case now. Will it morph into a Global Recession or Depression?

7. Market Sentiment:- With the constant Flip-Flopping, market sentiment has been damaged. Therefore, a 25% discount should automatically be applied to any business consideration. Chasing any over-crowded trade at this point in time, is probably risky, unless one is very nimble. Bitcoin (a good measure of Market Sentiment) has been quite weak. The VIX is also very low indicating "Extreme Complacency".

8. Earnings:- Outside of the Technology and AI sectors, things have not been that great. Supply chains are being disrupted and once the full impact of the tariffs hits later this year, demand could be affected. We are now working through the front-loaded inventories. Business Confidence has been severely affected and will probably not return for a few years.

9. Trading Strategy:- With so many moving parts and the constant flip-flop, it's very difficult to trade in this type of market as one can easily get whip-lashed. One could try to fade the big moves but it's not easy. A sharp drop in price may present some medium term opportunity but it should be looked at on a case-to-case basis as one do not want to be catching a falling piano.

I'm still "cautiously bearish" as the markets continue to grind higher. I have reduced my exposure to Equities this week from about 49% of Liquid Assets, to about 37%.
I would really start worrying when a see the "M" or "Triple Tops" forming on the charts.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Jan 27 & 28: FOMC meeting
2. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown?
3. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review
4. Feb 20: US: Tariff Ruling by Supreme Court


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (37% from 49% last week from 42% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 26% (6 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 31% (8 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 43% (10 Counters); Banks & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$61 from US$59 last week from US$59 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4980 from US$4595 from US$4501;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
d. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
e. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
f. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$101 from US$89 from US$79;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 51; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.95 from US$5.83 from US$5.90;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$89,434 @ 9.02 on Jan 24, 2026 from US$95,552 @ Jan 17, 2026 from US$90,586 @ Jan 10, 2026;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030 ?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Iran & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "52 Neutral" from "Greed 62" last week from "Neutral 51" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6916 from 6940 last week from 6966 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities; Lower; 26737 from 26795 last week from 26231 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Sold 1/2 PopMart (9992)
f. Sold Trip.com (9961)
g. Sold CATL (3750)
h. Sold Covered Call ETF (3416)

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4136 from 4102 last week from 4120 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1720 from 1713 last week from 1686 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Traded IJM
d. Traded Hong Leong Bank
e. Sold PPB


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jan 23, 2026 @ 10.05 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 158 from 158 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.13 from 3.15 from 3.16;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Higher; 0.69 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Higher; 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.7979 from 7.7998 from 7.7949;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.01 from 4.06 from 4.07;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.28 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.96 from 6.97 from 6.98;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 98.33 from 99.33 from 99.05;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 4.23% from 4.23% from 4.17%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 3.60% from 3.60% from 3.54%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.87 from 97.82 from 97.69;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

Is The Storm Coming?

storm.jpg

The big story this week, was the plunge in Silver of about 30%, on Friday. This was not really unexpected as Silver was behaving euphorically. However, the speed and magnitude, was a bit too fast and furious.

For the past few weeks, almost every single day, I was receiving videos of how great Silver was. And every day, I was waiting to buy some DSL (Ultrashort Silver ETF) for a quick trade.

Unfortunately, I didn't get my chance to buy some DSL at all. I was expecting Silver to drop maybe a few percent a day, for a few days and when the weak trend was in place then that would be my que to buy some DSL.

Anyway, the other Commodities also dropped together with Silver on Friday eg. Gold, Platinum, Copper, Rare Earth etc.

Are Commodities trying to tell us something about the Market Sentiment out there? (The Silver Market is now worth about US$5t).

When Bitcoin rose rapidly to the range high of US$127,000 in early October 2026, it also suddenly dropped. However, the drop was not as bad as Silver on Friday.

Anyway, Bitcoin still has not recovered from it's drop and is still about 38% from the top. I trust that the other cryptos are also quite weak.

Are Cryptos trying to tell us something about the Market Sentiment out there? (Most youngsters now have some money in Cryptos and the Crypto Market is now worth about US$3t).

The only strength out there now, is in the AI & Tech Sector. This week we also saw a 10% correction in Microsoft, one of the strongest AI & Tech stock. This was unexpected as the market has been brushing aside the Mag 7's huge capex in the AI area for the past few quarters.

Is this start of the decline of the Mag7s, AI & Tech counters? If so, can the rest of market weather the storm?

Volatility seems to be increasing and my gut feel is that things may be a bit choppy going forward. I have been hunkering down and since the Equities market were strong over the past few weeks, I have managed to reduce my exposure from about 49% of Liquid Assets to about 32% now. (In my previous blogs, I have been using the word "cautiously bearish" while the markets grind up).

Finally, it also does not help Market Sentiments, that there's about 12 US ships in the Middle East, waiting to attack Iran. My gut feel here, is that they will be attacking Iran within a week or two. Hence, the need for me to have a portfolio that can weather the coming storm.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Feb 08: Japanese Election
2. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review
3. Mid Feb: US Attacking Iran?
4. Feb 20: US: Tariff Ruling by Supreme Court


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (32% from 37% last week from 49% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 29% (6 Counters); K Economy
b. US: 35% (9 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 36% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$65 from US$61 last week from US$59 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$75; 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4763 from US$4980 from US$4595;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
d. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
e. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
f. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$79 from US$101 from US$89;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 49; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Flat; US$5.95 from US$5.95 from US$5.83;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$78,771 @ 8.46 AM on Feb 01, 2026 from US$89,434 @ 9.02 on Jan 24, 2026 from US$95,552 @ Jan 17, 2026;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030 ?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Iran & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "58 Greed" from "52 Neutral" last week from "Greed 62" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 6954 from 6916 last week from 6940 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought XLE (Energy ETF)
j. Sold Meta (FB)
k. Bought SLV (Silver ETF)

2. HK Equities; Higher; 27390 from 26737 last week from 26795 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No trade

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4118 from 4136 last week from 4102 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1741 from 1720 last week from 1713 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold IJM
d. Sold CIMB


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jan 30, 2026 @ 4.08 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 154 from 158 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.11 from 3.13 from 3.15;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Higher; 0.70 from 0.69 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Higher; 1.19 from 1.17 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8067 from 7.7979 from 7.7998;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 3.94 from 4.01 from 4.06;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.27 from 1.28 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.95 from 6.96 from 6.97;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 96.44 from 98.33 from 99.33;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 4.24% from 4.23% from 4.23%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.53% from 3.60% from 3.60%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 97.82 from 97.87 from 97.82;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will Be This Storm?

storm.jpg

As anticipated, Volatility has spiked and Cryptos, Commodities and AI & Tech Stocks, have been hit.

So how long will be this storm?

During the Subprime Crisis, that storm lasted for about two years.

As there has been no strong reason for this current storm, (Walsh's appointment is really just noise), I do not think that this storm will be a long one, as there's still a lot of Cash on the sidelines.

Having said that, if war does break out in the Middle East over the next few weeks (a very high probability) and if it expands into a "Long Regional War", then all bets are off.

At this point in time, I'm betting on a quick Iran war and that the financial markets would not be too affected for too long.

Hence, I'm slowly buying again, having reduced my exposure to Equities, from about 49% to about 32% last week.

Having said that, I'm also reminding myself to regularly look at my "Asset Allocation", "Currency Risk", "Stock Picking", "Position Sizing", "Diversification" etc. as I may be going against 'Market Direction" if I want to be buying now.

The following was a good article by Ed Dowd this week:-
Three Fundamental US Risks:-
1. US Housing Crisis. Immigrants came in and filled the gap. That’s now stopped. Deportations are going to continue over the next year or two and that is going to continue to put pressure on homes.
2. Stock Market Bubble. The valuations are as bad as the Dot Com bubble. We expect that to pop sometime this year.
3. China. It is entering into the acute phase of its economic crisis. This is going to be a global contagion. It will hurt Japan and South Korea and this will spill over to the US. It will be a Liquidity Crisis and that is why we are bullish on the US dollar.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Feb 08: Japanese Election
2. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review
3. Feb 20: US: Tariff Ruling by Supreme Court
4. Mar: China - 15 Year Plan
5. Mar 17 & 18: FOMC Meeting


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (39% from 32% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 38% (9 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 27% (8 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 35% (9 Counters); Banks & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$64 from US$65 last week from US$61 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$75; US$115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$4980 from US$4763 from US$4980;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
d. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
e. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
f. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$77 from US$79 from US$101;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 49; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.88 from US$5.95 from US$5.95;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$70,843 @ 11.30 AM on Feb 7, 2026 from US$78,771 @ 8.46 AM on Feb 01, 2026 from US$89,434 @ 9.02 on Jan 24, 2026;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030 ?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Iran & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "45 Neutral" from "58 Greed" last week from "52 Neutral" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6932 from 6954 last week from 6916 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Sold SLV (Silver ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 26548 from 27390 last week from 26737 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought CATL
f. Bought China Telecom
g. Bought 3416 (Covered Call ETF)
h. Added to 3033 (Hang Seng tech ETF)

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4066 from 4118 last week from 4136 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1733 from 1741 last week from 1720 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Zetrix


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 06, 2026 @ 9.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 157 from 154 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.10 from 3.11 from 3.13;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.70 from 0.70 from 0.69;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.18 from 1.19 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8132 from 7.8067 from 7.7979;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 3.95 from 3.94 from 4.01;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.27 from 1.27 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.94 from 6.95 from 6.96;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 97.71 from 96.44 from 98.33;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.21% from 4.24% from 4.23%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.50% from 3.53% from 3.60%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 97.40 from 97.82 from 97.87;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 2)?

storm.jpg

The markets were weak this week and the "buy the dips" crowd, seems to have disappeared.

It was also a "Sell First, Investigate Later" situation, especially in Cryptos, Commodities, AI & Tech.

Were the players afraid of the situation in the Middle East? TACO has already mentioned that a regime change is not a bad idea and that he will also be sending a second aircraft carrier to the Middle East.

But why send another aircraft carrier now? Did they suddenly realized that one aircraft carrier is not enough? How can you miscalculate on such a major issue?

Or is to give the impression that war is still another month away, while they start the bombing next week?

As for myself, my exposure to Equities have slowly crept up, from about 32% two weeks ago, to about 46% now. I should slow down my buying going forward but there seems to be so many "bargains" out there. But cheap can become cheaper though.

Anyway, most "experts" think that if war does break out in the Middle East, it would be a quick one like Venezuela. Hence, the markets have not really priced in this Middle East situation yet.

Anyway, I need to remind myself to be not too adventurous. I was lucky to have reduced my exposure to Equities before February but I have been buying on the dips again over the past two weeks.

The next war in the Middle East could be a messy one. Having said that, I do not see it expanding beyond the Middle East and affecting the markets in the US, HK & Malaysia, except for the initial knee-jerk reaction.

So having some Cash to buy on the dip may not be a bad idea just like the "Liberation Day" opportunity in April 2025.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Feb 20: US: Tariff Ruling by Supreme Court
2. Mar: China - 15 Year Plan
3. Mar 17 & 18: FOMC Meeting
4. Early April 2026: Trump to visit China
5. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting
6. May 2026: Powell Term Ends


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (46% from 32% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)

a. HK: 38% (11 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 27% (11 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 35% (10 Counters); Banks & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$63 from US$64 last week from US$65 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$75; US$115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$5046 from US$4980 from US$4763;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
d. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
e. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
f. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$78 from US$77 from US$79;
Resistance: US$115; Support: US$70
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 49; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.80 from US$5.88 from US$5.95;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$69,022 @ "8.47 AM Feb 14, 2026" from US$70,843 @ "11.30 AM Feb 7, 2026" from US$78,771 @ "8.46 AM Feb 01, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030 ?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Iran & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "36 Fear" from "45 Neutral" last week from "58 Greed" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6836 from 6932 last week from 6954 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought Microsoft
j. Bought Amazon
k. Bought IGV (Software ETF)
l. Sold XLE (Energy ETF)

2. HK Equities; Higher; 26560 from 26548 last week from 27390 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Trip
f. Bought China Telecom
g. Bought Tencent
h. Bought Bank of East Asia
i. Traded New Oriental Education
j. Sold CATL

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4082 from 4066 last week from 4118 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1740 from 1733 last week from 1741 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Gamuda
d. Bought IJM
e. Sold Zetrix


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Feb 14, 2026 @ 10.00 AM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 153 from 157 last week from 154 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.09 from 3.10 from 3.11;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Stronger; 0.71 from 0.70 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Stronger; 1.19 from 1.18 from 1.19;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8177 from 7.8132 from 7.8067;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 3.91 from 3.95 from 3.94;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.26 from 1.27 from 1.27;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.90 from 6.94 from 6.95;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 96.88 from 97.71 from 96.44;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220

Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.05% from 4.21% from 4.24%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.41% from 3.50% from 3.53%%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.48 from 97.40 from 97.82;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 3)?

storm.jpg

The markets didnt go anywhere this week.

Maybe the players are all waiting for the coming war with Iran. Thereafter, they can judge whether it would be a short war or a long one.

The "experts" are saying that it will be a short war although everyone is waiting for Iran's reaction at the Straits of Hormuz, where supposedly 20% of the world's oil are transported through.

When war starts, there would probably be an initial knee jerk sell-down .

If it's a deep one, say 10%, the bargain hunters may surface including myself.

If it's a mild one, say 3%, then it may end up as a water torture ie. a series of small drops lasting weeks. Trying to catch a falling knife at this time, can be dangerous as it could be a falling piano.

I have already gone thru my portfolio to make sure that it can survive any war on Iran. There are not too many speculative counters there and if I can hold them for about two years, it should be quite ok.

I have not given much thought about the Tariffs. Even though the SCOTUS has ruled against Trump, he would certainly be looking for a Plan B to get around the court decision. (He has just increased the global tariffs to 15%).

My exposure to Equities has gone up to 47% from about 32% two weeks ago as I was bargain hunting over the past two weeks. I need to remind myself to be not too adventurous just before a war. It's very easy to buy but not so easy later, to be selling at the cut-loss limit.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Mar: China - 15 Year Plan
2. Mar 17 & 18: FOMC Meeting
3. Mar 31: Trump to visit China
4. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting
5. May 2026: Powell Term Ends


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (47% from 46% last week from 32% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 39% (12 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 27% (11 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 34% (9 Counters); Banks & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen? USD? SGD? CHF? Gold?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$66 from US$63 last week from US$64 last week two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$75; US$115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$5081 from US$5046 from US$4980;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
d. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
e. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
f. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$82 from US$78 from US$77;
Resistance: US$115; Support: US$70
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 49; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$5.84 from US$5.80 from US$5.88;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$68,007 @ "8.03 AM Feb 21, 2026" from US$69,022 @ "8.47 AM Feb 14, 2026" from US$70,843 @ "11.30 AM Feb 7, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030 ?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Iran & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "43 Fear" from "36 Fear" last week from "45 Neutral" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 6910 from 6836 last week from 6932 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought Trump Media (DJT)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 26443 from 26560 last week from 26548 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Baidu
f. Bought Alibaba
g. Sold Bank of East Asia

3. Shanghai Equities; Flat; 4082 from 4082 last week from 4066 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1753 from 1740 last week from 1733 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold Gamuda


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 20, 2026 @ 6.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 155 from 153 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.07 from 3.09 from 3.10;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.71 from 0.71 from 0.70;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.18 from 1.19 from 1.18;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8148 from 7.8177 from 7.8132;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 3.90 from 3.91 from 3.95;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.27 from 1.26 from 1.27;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 6.91 from 6.90 from 6.94;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 97.94 from 96.88 from 97.71;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.09% from 4.05% from 4.21%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.48% from 3.41% from 3.50%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.62 from 97.48 from 97.40;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 4)?

storm.jpg

As expected, the war with Iran has started.

The question now, is how long will this war last.

Will it be a short "12 Day War" again? Or will it morph into long one with Nuclear Weapons being used later?

Will other countries eg. Turkiye, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China etc. be also dragged into this war as well?

How long will the Straits of Hormuz be blocked? Will Oil reach US$100 on Monday? If yes, the economies of China, Japan and Korea may be affected.

How much will the markets drop on Monday? And why would you be selling at a lower price (after the markets have dropped) and not during the past three weeks, as the potential for war was all over the news for the past 5 weeks?

If the markets dropped a lot of Monday, I would consider it as a buying opportunity. Ido not think that this war can last for more than a few weeks and I dont think it will morph into a nuclear one.

I sold a lot of stocks about three weeks ago and have been buying on the weakness, over the past two weeks. I will probably be buying over the next two weeks.

At the same time, I have some hedges in place eg. SQQQ (3x Inverse Nasdaq), UVXY (Volatility ETF), TMF (3x 20+Treasuries ETF) and Consumer Staples. So it may be time to sell those hedges in a few weeks time.

It would also be interesting to see where are the safe havens this round. Would it be in the JPY, USD, US Treasuries, SGD, CHF, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin, Consumer Staples or something else?

It was interesting to note that Bitcoin dropped 5% when the war started and Bitcoin was supposedly a safe haven.

When the margin calls arrived over the next two days, all the safe haven would probably be sold too.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Mar 4: China - 15 Year Plan
2. Mar 17 & 18: FOMC Meeting
3. Mar 31 - Apr 02: Trump to visit China
4. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting
5. May 2026: Powell Term Ends


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (64% from 47% last week from 46% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 33% (14 Counters); AI;
b. US: 22% (11 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 45% (14 Counters); Banks & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$67 from US$66 last week from US$63 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$75; US$115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Higher; US$5267 from US$5081 from US$5046;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
d. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
e. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
f. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Higher; US$94 from US$82 from US$78;
Resistance: US$115; Support: US$70
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 49; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.09 from US$5.84 from US$5.80;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$63,892 @ "3.38 AM Feb 28, 2026" from US$68,007 @ "8.03 AM Feb 21, 2026" from US$69,022 @ "8.47 AM Feb 14, 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030 ?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Iran & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Flat; "43 Fear" from "43 Fear" last week from "36 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6879 from 6910 last week from 6836 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought Novo Nordisk (NVO)
j. Sold IGV (Software ETF)

2. HK Equities; Higher; 26657 from 26443 last week from 26560 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought CATL
f. Bought New Oriental Education

3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4163 from 4082 last week from 4082 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1717 from 1753 last week from 1740 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Telekom Malaysia
d. Bought CIMB
e. Bought Hibiscus
f. Bought Public Bank
g. Traded Maybank


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 28, 2026 @ 3.52 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 156 from 155 last week from 153 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.08 from 3.07 from 3.09;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.71 from 0.71 from 0.71;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.18 from 1.18 from 1.19;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8233 from 7.8148 from 7.8177;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 3.89 from 3.90 from 3.91;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.26 from 1.27 from 1.26;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.86 from 6.91 from 6.90;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 97.65 from 97.94 from 96.88;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.96% from 4.09% from 4.05%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.38% from 3.48% from 3.41%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 97.25 from 97.62 from 97.48;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 5)?

storm.jpg

It's now the first week of the war and I think that things are better than expected.

The markets have not really crashed and it looks like a one-sided war so far.

At this rate, this war could be over quite soon and I should start thinking about selling my Inverse ETFs and Hedges.

At the same time, I should also think about the opportunistic trades out there eg. long airlines, short oil, short USD, long Commodities, long Aluminum, long natural Gas, long petrochemicals, long fertilizer etc.

Thinking does not means Buying. Thinking means getting ready for a trade which may or may not happen.

We will have a feel soon on whether this one-sided war will be over quite fast.

I dont want to be too early to the party and I dont want to leave too early when the party is in full swing.

I have been doing quite a bit of buying over the past two weeks and my exposure to Equities is now 65% from about 32% two weeks ago. I will need to review my exposure if things worsen from here eg. sinking of an aircraft carrier (which is highly unlikely).

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Mar 17 & 18: FOMC Meeting
2. Mar 31 - Apr 02: Trump to visit China
3. April 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting
4. May 2026: Powell Term Ends
5. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (65% from 64% last week from 47% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 32% (13 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 25% (13 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 43% (13 Counters); Banks & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; Yen? Gold? CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$91 from US$67 last week from US$66 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Jun 2022); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. US SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left?
b. OPEC+: Increasing output
c. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$5159 from US$5267 from US$5081;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$84 from US$94 from US$82;
Resistance: US$115; Support: US$70
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 49; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Lower; US$5.81 from US$6.09 from US$5.84;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$68,010 @ "6.17 PM on Mar 7, 2026" from US$63,892 @ "3.38 AM Feb 28, 2026" from US$68,007 @ "8.03 AM Feb 21, 2026"
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030 ?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "27 Fear" from "43 Fear" last week from "43 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Lower; 6740 from 6879 last week from 6910 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought EWY (Korea ETF)
j. Bought SLV (Silver ETF)
k. Traded SPXS (S&P Inverse 2x ETF)
l. Traded SEA (SE)
m. Traded XLE (Energy Producers ETF)

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25768 from 26657 last week from 26443 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Traded Petrochina
f. Traded 7515 (Nikkei Inverse 2x ETF)
g. Sold China Telecom

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4124 from 4163 from 4082;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Flat; 1718 from 1717 from 1753:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Traded Hengyuan
d. Sold Hibiscus


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 07, 2026 @ 6.42 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 158 from 156 last week from 155 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.09 from 3.08 from 3.07;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.70 from 0.71 from 0.71;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.16 from 1.18 from 1.18;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.8216 from 7.8233 from 7.8148;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 3.95 from 3.89 from 3.90;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.28 from 1.26 from 1.27;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Weaker; 6.91 from 6.86 from 6.91;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 98.86 from 97.65 from 97.94;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.13% from 3.96% from 4.09%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.56% from 3.38% from 3.48%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 95.91 from 97.25 from 97.62;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.