Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 22)

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 17, 2021

Earnings.jpg

US 3Q Earnings

It's the beginning of the US 3Q Earnings and the results of the banks have exceeded expectations (as expected).

Forbes believes that the banks will continue to have good results over the next few quarters by writing back their loan loss provisions. And if interest rates does creep higher, it would be another tailwind for them.

As for the rest of the reporting companies, Reuters mentioned that they could be facing some headwinds from:-
1. Supply Chain Problems
2. Labour Shortages and
3. Inflation

Anyway, FactSet expects the S&P 500 companies to average 27.6% earnings growth and 14.9% revenue growth. That is down from the 91% average earnings growth achieved in the second quarter.

The reality is that economic growth is slowing and year-over-year comparisons are now less favorable.

In the meantime, fourth-quarter estimates remain solid though, with FactSet anticipating 21.5% average earnings growth and 11.4% average revenue growth.

As for myself, I will continue to use any strength in the markets, to exit some of my positions and to raise some Cash.

For this week, I have managed to do some selling as the markets were fairly strong.

My exposure to Equities have now dropped from 38% last week, to about 32% currently. (I would be happy if I can bring it down further to about 25%).

The number of counters in my portfolio has also dropped from 38 last week to 31 currently. (I would be happy if I can bring it down further to about 20).

Going forward, I will try to bet bigger and less frequently.

As mentioned last last week, I'm no longer buying the dips. I will now buy only on steep correction, of say 15% and where I'm confident that the company is fundamentally sound and where the price can rebound very quickly.

And I will also not hesitate to take small profits now, rather than to hold.

There are now too many moving parts in the market and any one of them can cause some severe problem eg.
1. Rising Interest Rates
2. High Inflation
3. High Commodity Prices
4. Unemployment from Vaccine Mandates
5. Supply Chain Disruption
6. Rolling Lockdowns from Covid19
7. Labor Unrest & Strikes
8. Fed Tapering
9. China's Property Sector
10 China's Electricity Crunch
11. China's Regulatory issues
etc.

For next week, we have the following:-
1. Continuation of US 3Q Earnings
2. Oct 11-17: IMF and World Bank Meetings; Probably Non-Event


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (32% from 38% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 17% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 37% (10 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 20% (8 Counters); Unable to trade due to time difference; To buy & hold ETFs instead.
d. Malaysia: 26% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$82.53 from US$79.58 last week from US$75.72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. Demand is down about 15%?
b. Supply is up by about 15%?
c. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
d. When will Iranian Oil be available?
e. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80 for a long time
f. Will the US release their SPR?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1768 from US$1757 from US$1761;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$23.35 from US$22.68 from US$22.56;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.72 from US$4.28 from US$4.21;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.40; 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; US$47.20 from US$32.15 from US$32.15;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$61,528 from US$54,205 from US$47,583 @ 9.30 AM on Oct 16, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. So what if Tesla, AMZN, AMC, El Salvador accept Bitcoin?
f. US$100,000 Target Price by Standard Chartered
g. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
h. How will the China Ban be affecting cryptos?
i. Soros is now trading Bitcoins too?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Neutral; 50 from 34 from 27;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4471 from 4392 from 4357;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4546
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 22
c. Sold ARKF (FinTech ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 25331 from 24838 from 24576;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Sold Geely
d. Sold Galaxy
e. Sold Smoore
f. Traded Lenovo

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3572 from 3592 from 3568;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3174 from 3113 from 3051;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 29069 from 28049 from 28771;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1598 from 1564 from 1525;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold 1/2 KPower
b. Sold Hap Seng Plantations
c. Traded SCIB
d. Traded Destini


Curencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Oct 15 @ 1.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 114.07 from 112.25 last week from 111.08 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Elections on Oct 31, 2021
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0831 from 3.0841 from 3.0802;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7416 from 0.7309 from 0.7259;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1607 from 1.1576 from 1.1596;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7807 from 7.7846 from 7.7850;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.1573 from 4.1782 from 4.1829;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3486 from 1.3550 from 1.3580;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 1Q, 2022?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4358 from 6.4440 from 6.4463;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3683 from 1.3616 from 1.3546;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 93.95 from 94.07 from 94.04;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.53% from 1.61% from 1.47%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.36% from 0.32% from 0.27%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 109.12 from 108.45 from 109.20;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.37 from 86.76 from 87.41;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 5062 from 5526 from 5202; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 24, 2021

Big Picture.jpeg

The Big Picture

As there are so many moving parts in the market now, I'm forcing myself to trade less and to think more about the big picture:-

1. Interest Rates:- The US cannot afford to increase interest rates that much, due to their huge deficit. Therefore, Powell may taper but he will not increase rates quickly. And once the new stimulus money hits the market, Powell will then have more wiggle room.

2. Inflation:- I think that Powell will allow prices to continue rising. Thereafter, he's hoping for the high prices to lower demand, to take care of inflation.

3. USD:- If US interest rates are not rising that much, then it's very likely that the USD will also not be rising that much either. However, if inflation really becomes a very big issue later, they can then increase the USD at that point in time.

4. Commodities:- If the USD is not rising that much, then Commodities would probably not fall too much from the current high prices.

5. Liquidity:- I think that there's still ample Liquidity in the system. There is plenty of Cash on the sidelines and there's plenty of speculations eg. cryptos, meme stocks etc.

6. Global Economy:- I think that the global economy will be muddling through the Covid19 Rolling Lockdowns. I think that things will only recover in 1Q, 2023. I'm not expecting Stagflation at this point in time as there are a lot of pent-up demands.

7. Sentiments:- There seems to be a lot of risk-taking whether in Meme stocks, Cryptos, NFTs, Commodities etc. As long as there's a bigger fool to buy things off you, then you should be ok. As for myself, the friends and relatives around me seemed to be scared stiff. Therefore, a big correction is quite unlikely.

8. Earnings:- Margins will likely be coming down except for the banks, who may have some loan loss provisions, that could be reversed over the next few quarters.

9. US Stock Market:- The US market has been grinding higher since March 2020 and has almost doubled. The "experts" have been calling for a correction but it has not appeared. I dont think that there would be a 25% correction but a 10% correction is not unreasonable. For the US market, I'm focusing on ETFs instead of individual stocks as it's very hard to trade the US markets while it's my sleeping time.

10. HK Stock Market:- The HK market has lost about 7500 points between Feb 2021 to early Oct 2021. It has since recovered 2000 points over the past few weeks. At this point in time, I wont be chasing any stocks in HK anymore, unless there's a very special convincing situation.

For next week, I would be looking at the following:-
1. Oct 29: Malaysia Budget; Which sector / companies would be benefitting?
2. Oct 30 & 31: G20 Summit; probably a Non-Event
3. Oct 31: Japanese Election; Non-Event;


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (33% from 32% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 16% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 33% (9 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 20% (8 Counters); Unable to trade due to time difference; Focusing on ETFs.
d. Malaysia: 31% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$83.98 from US$82.53 last week from US$79.58 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80 for a long time
c. Will the US release their SPR?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1793 from US$1768 from US$1757;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$24.39 from US$23.35 from US$22.68;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.50 from US$4.72 from US$4.28;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.40; 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; US$49 from US$47.20 from US$32.15;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$60,545 from US$61,528 from US$54,205 @ 8.10 AM on Oct 23, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. US$100,000 Target Price by Standard Chartered
f. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
g. How will the China Ban be affecting cryptos?
h. Soros is now trading Bitcoins too?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed; 67 from 50 from 34;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4545 from 4471 from 4392;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 22
c. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 26127 from 25331 from 24838;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Sold Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3583 from 3572 from 3592;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3205 from 3174 from 3113;
Resistance 3850
a. Will the Tourists and Business Travelers be coming back in 1Q 2022?
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 28805 from 29069 from 28049;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1588 from 1598 from 1564;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought KPower
b. Bought SCIB
c. Bought Destini


Curencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Oct 23 @ 8.10 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 113.56 from 114.07 last week from 112.25 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
e. Elections on Oct 31, 2021
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0798 from 3.0831 from 3.0841;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7464 from 0.7416 from 0.7309;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1646 from 1.1607 from 1.1576;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7735 from 7.7807 from 7.7846;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.1519 from 4.1573 from 4.1782;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3480 from 1.3486 from 1.3550;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
d. Can Tourism and Business Travel resume in 1Q, 2022?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3848 from 6.4358 from 6.4440;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 93.64 from 93.95 from 94.07;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.64% from 1.53% from 1.61%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.46% from 0.36% from 0.32%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 108.48 from 109.12 from 108.45;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.84 from 87.37 from 86.76;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 4653 from 5062 from 5526; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Oct 31, 2021

Edge.jpg

What Is Your Investing Edge?

The markets have not gone anywhere for the pask week so I'm using this week's blog to do some reflection on what is my investing edge.

A long time ago, a sifu told me that a fool can also make money in the market as long as he has some luck. Never think that your profits are due to your superior investment skils and not just plain dumb luck.

Conversely, even though you can analyse business matters thoroughly or able to read charts properly, if lady luck is not on your side, you will also lose money.

BTW, James 'Rev Shark' Deporre mentioned recently that many people don't usually think of the following "tenets" ie Luck, Randomness and Patience. You can read more on it at the Trader's Trade:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=10293&start=70

So what's your Investing Edge? The following are some of my random humble thoughts:-

1. Do you have some knowledge of a certain industry? Do you have contacts in that industry that can give you up to date information before it is known to the other people?

2. Or is your deep knowledge of that industry hampering your investment performance? In my case, as I know a certain industry quite well, I never really invested in that industry.

I can see the Risks, the Wastage, the Mismanagement, the Fools in the companies etc. At the same time, the Analysts have been writing glowing reports of that industry and the share prices in that industry have been going up and up. I certainly have missed the share price increase in that industry.

3. There are thousands of people who can analyse things better than you, whether Business Analysis or reading Charts. So what's is so special about your Business Analysis skills or Chart Reading abilities?

4. Just because you have read some business articles, watch some You Tube videos, read some Analyst reports, see CNBC or Bloomberg, does that make you a "superior investor"?

Those activities only qualify you to sit at the table, together with the thousands of other people, who may have better "Business Analysis Skills" or "Chart Reading Abilities" than you. And they could be betting against you.

5. My sifu also mentioned that if you happened to be making money, be humble. Dont show off and tell people how great your investment skills are. They will be waiting to remind you when you fall. Worst still, they may even give you some false information, to trip you up so that you lose money.

6. Personally, I dont think that I have given false information to anyone but I did not discourage an arrogant "investor" from averaging down on his losing position.

This arrogant guy thinks that the market is wrong and that he's right as he happened to know one of the CEOs of a company in that industry.

I have my doubts about averaging down in a cyclical industry that may take years to recover but i didnt discourage him.

Last that I heard, this arrogant investor has lost a lot of money after averaging down a few times. And I did politely remind him once in a while. ( I will have to manage my emotions better and not allow "fools" to disturb my inner peace).

7. At the same time, if you are humble and has been helping people, when the opportunity arises, people will also help you. They may volunteer some useful information, new trends, new resources etc. Over the years, my bigger investment profits has always been through someone else.

So what is your Investing Edge? Do you know that Ignorance can trip you up. Do you know that you dont know? Do you know that Arrogance can trip you up? Not to mentioned Greed and Fear. Do you think that your investment Profits are due to your superior "Business Analysis Skills" or "Chart Reading Abilities" and not just plain dumb luck?

My own conclusion is that you do need to have the following:-
1. Strong Business Analytical skill
2. Good Chart Reading ability
3. Friendly Sources in the Industry
4. Superior Trading Skills eg. Cut Loss, Position Sizing, Risk Management etc.
5. Psychological / Emotional Stability
6. Humility
7. Lady Luck (Very Important)
etc.

So it's good to reflect on your Investments Edge once in a while and not let your ego carry you too high up into the stratosphere.

For next week, I would be watching the following:-
1. Malaysia: 12th Malaysian Plan Analysis
2. New Money From The New Month; Spike early next week?
3. G20 Summit Analysis
4. Japanese Election Analysis
5. COP26 Meeting in Glasgow; My Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) may be affected
6. US: Nov 1 & 2 FOMC Meeting; Tapering?
7. US: Nov 5 Labour Report; Vaccine mandate increasing unemployment?
8. Malaysia: Nov 6 & 7: PAS Muktabar (Annual Meeting)
9. China: Nov 8 to 11: Sixth Party Plenum


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (34% from 33% last week from 32% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 15% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 38% (10 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 19% (8 Counters); Unable to trade due to time difference; Focusing on ETFs.
d. Malaysia: 27% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
c. Heavy exposure to Karim's Counters (Serba, SCIB and KPower)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$83.25 from US$83.98 last week from US$82.53 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80 for a long time
c. Will the US release their SPR?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1785 from US$1793 from US$1768;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$23.97 from US$24.39 from US$23.35;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.38 from US$4.50 from US$4.72;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$46.10 from US$49 from US$47.20;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$61,530 from US$60,545 from US$61,528 @ 9.10 PM on Oct 30, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. US$100,000 Target Price by Standard Chartered
f. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
g. How will the China Ban be affecting cryptos?
h. Soros is now trading Bitcoins too?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed; 72 from 67 from 50;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4605 from 4545 from 4471;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 22
c. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 25377 from 26127 from 25331;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3547 from 3583 from 3572;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3198 from 3205 from 3174;
Resistance 3850
a. Covid19 cases increasing
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28893 from 28805 from 29069;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1562 from 1588 from 1598;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to Destini
b. Traded KPower
c. Traded SCIB
d. Sold Hume Cement
e. Sold IGB Commercial Reit
f. Sold 1/2 Oriental Holdings


Curencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Oct 30 @ 9.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 113.99 from 113.56 last week from 114.07 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0700 from 3.0798 from 3.0831;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7523 from 0.7464 from 0.7416;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1562 from 1.1646 from 1.1607;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7800 from 7.7735 from 7.7807;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.1415 from 4.1519 from 4.1573;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3490 from 1.3480 from 1.3486;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.3994 from 6.3848 from 6.4358;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 94.12 from 93.64 from 93.95;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.56% from 1.64% from 1.53%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.50% from 0.46% from 0.36%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.62 from 108.48 from 109.12;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 86.93 from 86.84 from 87.37;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 3519 from 4653 from 5062; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 5, 2021

Trading Break.jpg

Trading Break

The markets have not been going anywhere for the past week and I have decided to take a "trading break".

It's good to step back once in a while, conserve energy and instead, just have a 35,000 feet view of things, in a detached manner.

It could also give you a new perspective on what to trade over the next few weeks.

As they have also removed the travel restrictions around my place, I have been going out to eat quite often, been visiting the malls and even did a day trip yesterday, to a local tourist destination.

I'm not sure whether there would be rolling lockdowns again but it's certainly a good feeling to be able to go out again.

When I'm outside, I could see some "revenge spending" but I can also see that a lot of small businesses have gone bankrupt and closed forever.

Anyway, my views of the markets have not changed from a few weeks ago and it's very likely that things will not change much until "Window Dressing Season" at year end.

For next week, I would be watching the following:-
1. China: Nov 8 to 11: Sixth Party Plenum
2. US: Nov 10: CPI
3. US: Nov 11: US Funds and US Citizens cannot hold any shares in any sanctioned company including those that are listed in HK


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (38% from 34% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 14% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 43% (12 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 17% (8 Counters); Difficult to trade due to time difference; Focusing on ETFs.
d. Malaysia: 26% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
c. Heavy exposure to Karim's Counters (Serba, SCIB and KPower)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$81.17 from US$83.25 last week from US$83.98 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80 for a long time
c. Will the US release their SPR?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1820 from US$1785 from US$1793;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$24.25 from US$23.97 from US$24.39;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.34 from US$4.38 from US$4.50;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$45.05 from US$46.10 from US$49;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$60,467 from US$61,530 from US$60,545 from US$61,528 @ 9.10 PM on Oct 30, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. US$100,000 Target Price by Standard Chartered
f. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
g. How will the China Ban be affecting cryptos?
h. Soros is now trading Bitcoins too?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Greed; 85 from 72 from 67;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4605 from 4545 from 4471;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 22
c. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24871 from 25377 from 26127;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought CICC
d. Bought China Merchant Bank

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3492 from 3547 from 3583;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3242 from 3198 from 3205;
Resistance 3850
a. Covid19 cases increasing
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 29612 from 28893 from 28805;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1532 from 1562 from 1588;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought KPower


Curencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 5 @ 7.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 113.91 from 113.99 last week from 113.56 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0741 from 3.0700 from 3.0798;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7389 from 0.7523 from 0.7464;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1533 from 1.1562 from 1.1646;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7850 from 7.7800 from 7.7735;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.1602 from 4.1415 from 4.1519;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3533 from 1.3490 from 1.3480;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4040 from 6.3994 from 6.3848;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 94.53 from 94.12 from 93.64;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.53% from 1.56% from 1.64%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.44% from 0.50% from 0.46%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.81 from 108.62 from 108.48;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 87.17 from 86.93 from 86.84;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2769 from 3519 from 4653; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 14, 2021

rewards.jpg

Rewards Out There

Most of my friends and relatives, are scared stiff so I think that it's timely to focus on the brighter news and to think of some of the opportunies out there.

Anyway, I recalled reading somewhere, that to invest successfully, you just need to focus on two things:-
1. Liquidity
2. Earnings
If these two things are there, you have a higher probability of making money and it's not likely that the markets would be crashing that soon.

A. Let's look at the following comments on Liquidity from Forbes:-

As of mid September, there was still $550 billion of the $1.9 trillion stimulus passed earlier this year, that has yet to be disbursed. Now we have another $1.2 trillion spend coming down the pike.

All of this and the Fed is still buying $105 billion bonds a month (i.e. injecting $105 billion into the economy).

Therefore, it looks like there would still be a bit of "Liquidity" for a while more.

B. Let's now look at the following comments on Earnings from Investor Place:-

According to FactSet, 89% of the S&P 500 companies have reported, with analysts expecting 40% year-over-year growth for the end of 2021. 81% of the companies that have reported beat expectations.

Therefore earnings are quite strong for the time being.


With BOTH Liquidity and Earnings in good shape, it's a good trading situation and it's not likely that the market would be crashing in the near future (unless there's a sharp, violent, external, unforeseen event).

BTW, I saw the following article by Goldman Sachs and thought that you might also be interested in it:-

Top Macro and Stock Market Themes for 2022

1) Long Convalescence – Weaker beta signals as the economy and medical recovery matures. Less Volatility?

2) Supply Side Recovery – Shortages ease which in turn helps the inflation picture.

3) Too Early For The Risk Bunker – The pro-cyclical market trends continue with an economic recovery.

4) Structural Scarcity – Commodity tightness continues.

5) Rates Go Higher – Central banks including the Federal Reserve, start to hike interest rates

6) Pricing In The Once Unthinkable – The European Central Bank exit’s negative rates

7) In Lower Gear – China tolerates a step-down in growth.

8) Old School – More mature tightening cycle in the emerging markets but they also see old school fiscal risks.

9) Parting Ways – Disparate recovery trajectories should drive assets.

10) Usual Suspects – Risks remain from Covid, interest rates, commodities and politics.

Finally, for next week, we have the Xi-Biden Virtual Summit. I'm not really expecting much from these two gentlemen.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (33% from 38% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 16% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 33% (10 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (9 Counters); Difficult to trade due to time difference; Focusing on ETFs.
d. Malaysia: 25% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 30%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$80.72 from US$81.17 last week from US$83.25 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80 for a long time
c. Will the US release their SPR?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1868 from US$1820 from US$1785;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$25.41 from US$24.25 from US$23.97;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.45 from US$4.34 from US$4.38;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Higher; US$47.40 from US$45.05 from US$46.10;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$63,806 from US$60,467 from US$61,530 @ 10.10 AM on Nov 13, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. US$100,000 Target Price by Standard Chartered
f. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
g. How will the China Ban be affecting cryptos?
h. Soros is now trading Bitcoins too?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Greed; 81 from 72 from 67;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4683 from 4605 from 4545;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 22
c. Bought Walt Disney (DIS)

2. HK Equities - Higher. 25328 from 24871 from 25377;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought AIA
d. Sold CICC
e Sold China Merchant Bank
f Sold Tencent
g. Sold Sands China

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3539 from 3492 from 3547;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3228 from 3242 from 3198;
Resistance 3850
a. Covid19 cases increasing
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Flat; 29610 from 29612 from 28893;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Flat; 1531 from 1532 from 1562;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold 1/4 KPower
b. Sold 1/3 Destini

Curencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 12 @ 3.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 114.21 from 113.91 last week from 113.99 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0759 from 3.0741 from 3.0700;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7294 from 0.7389 from 0.7523;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.442 from 1.1533 from 1.1562;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7912 from 7.7850 from 7.7800;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.1654 from 4.1602 from 4.1415;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3544 from 1.3533 from 1.3490;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3927 from 6.4040 from 6.3994;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 95.21 from 94.53 from 94.12;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.57% from 1.53% from 1.56%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.54% from 0.44% from 0.50%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 108.54 from 108.81 from 108.62;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.82 from 87.17 from 86.93;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2844 from 2769 from 3519; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 20, 2021

Same Old Same Old.jpg

Same Old, Same Old

The markets have not gone anywhere again this week and it's the same old, same old things, to think about:-

1. Will Powell be reappointed? How long can the US not increase interest rates?

2. Will Xmas Shopping provide some cheers to the global economy?

3. What will happened after this Xmas Shopping Spree, especially in 2022 ?

4. Will Rolling Lockdowns persist into 2022 / 2023 ?

5. Will they be able to find an effective treatment for Covid19 in 2022?

6. Will Inflation be really "transitory"?

7. Can the current high inflation lead to Stagflation?

8. Is China done with their regulatory issues? Will it spill over to 2022 / 2023? Which sector could next be targeted?

9. Where would the new technologies lead us to eg. 5G, Metaverse, AV, EV etc.?

10. Where are the opportunities now in Commodities eg Iron Ore, Coal, Copper, Uranium, Gold, Silver etc. ?

11. Where are the opportunities from the US Infrastructure Program?

12. Will Bitcoin and other Cryptos continue to fly from here?

13. Can a crash in Bitcoin, also trigger a crash in Meme and Tech stocks, probably from Margin Calls?

14. Will there be "Year End Window Dressing" this year?

15. How do I protect myself if there's a Flash Crash?

Last week, I did conclude that Liquidity and Earnings are quite ok and things should be quite hunky dory for a while.

However, I did noticed that Sentiments and Market Technicals, are weakening.

I still think that the market will not crash for the time being but in this uncertain world, it's better to plan for all scenarios, no matter how small a probability.

There are so many moving parts that I need to remind myself to stay nimble and not be too entrenched in a certain mode of thinking.

My current strategy is to stay a bit defensive. However, if a trading opportunity presents itself, I will probably take it as long as I'm confident that I can hold the investment for the longer term, if things do go sideways very quickly.

And if you have to hold onto an asset for the medium term, having a bit of dividends would also decrease your Opportunity Cost.

Therefore, buying distressed assets, fallen angels etc. seems to be my modus operandi nowadays, instead of chasing after momentum stocks.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (36% from 33% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 14% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 36% (11 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 23% (9 Counters); Difficult to trade due to time difference; Focusing on ETFs.
d. Malaysia: 26% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 30%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$75.67 from US$80.72 last week from US$81.17two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$80 for a long time
c. Will the US release their SPR?
d. Will China release their SPR?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1847 from US$1868 from US$1820;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$24.65 from US$25.41 from US$24.25;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.40 from US$4.45 from US$4.34;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Lower; US$38.48 from US$47.40 from US$45.05;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Lower. US$58,338 from US$63,806 from US$60,467 @ 8.55 AM on Nov 20, 2021)
a. Record: US$64,668
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
e. US$100,000 Target Price by Standard Chartered
f. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
g. How will the China Ban be affecting cryptos?
h. Soros is now trading Bitcoins too?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed; 58 from 81 from 72;

1. US Equities - Higher; 4698 from 4683 from 4605;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4525; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 22
c. No trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 25050 from 25328 from 24871;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24600; 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Added to Alibaba
d. Bought Baidu

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3560 from 3539 from 3492;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story
c. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3232 from 3228 from 3242;
Resistance 3850
a. Covid19 cases increasing
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 29746 from 29610 from 29612;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1526 from 1531 from 1532;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to Destini


Curencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 20 @ 9.15 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 114.02 from 114.21 last week from 113.91 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0720 from 3.0759 from 3.0741;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7238 from 0.7294 from 0.7389;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1280 from 1.442 from 1.1533;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Flat. 7.7911 from 7.7912 from 7.7850;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.1820 from 4.1654 from 4.1602;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3613 from 1.3544 from 1.3533;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3872 from 6.3927 from 6.4040;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 96.03 from 95.21 from 94.53;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.55% from 1.57% from 1.53%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.51% from 0.54% from 0.44%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 108.08 from 108.54 from 108.81;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.56 from 86.82 from 87.17;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2552 from 2844 from 2769; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Nov 28, 2021

Bargains.jpg

Where Are The Bargains?

The markets are now throwing a tantrum so it's time to seriously look for the bargains out there.

Let's first look at the companies in HK:-

1. I would think that it's the Big Techs eg. Alibaba, Tencent, Baidu, ASM Paciffic, JD and Meituan. I'm vested in the first four and waiting to buy the last two.

2. I'm not sure about 3033 (Hang Seng Tech Index) although I have a fairly big position in it. I'm not too sure that the smaller tech companies will outperform now.

3. The Insurance companies listed in HK looks attractive eg. AIA and Ping An. I just took some small profits on AIA and may buy it back if it goes lower. I have Ping An which has been perfoming poorly.

4. The Macau casinoes looks cheap but it will depends on when the gamblers will be back. This Omicron variant is not helping. I have SJM and have sold Galaxy and Sands recently. Will buy back the last two if the price is attractive.

5. I'm not too sure about the China Properties although they are all trading at deep discounts to RNAV. Cheap can become much cheaper. The three redlines are not helping but there are talks of easing.

6. The Chinese Education sector has been decimated. Not sure how they can bounce back and when. I have sold my New Oriental Education as I dont have the patience to wait for their turnaround which could take years.


Let's now look at the companies in Malaysia:-

1. The glove makers bounced a lot on Friday. Not sure about this one. I currently have Hartalega and Riverstone. Both have performed poorly and I'm holding them for the high dividends. It's not likely that I will add to my current position in the Rubber Gloves Industry despite this new variant.

2. I'm also watching the Karim stocks ie. Serba Dynamik, SCIB and KPower. I think that they are at bargain basement level already but it can also become much cheaper if people panic again. Have the short-term players all sold already?


Let's look at some of the companies in Singapore:-

1. Wilmar is down 25% from the top, despite it's good profits. I'm still sitting on this counter. Not sure whether to average down or not.

2. Nanofilm has dropped about 40% from the top. However, I'm not sure when their business can recover so I will not be looking at this one yet unless it dropped significantly from here.


Let's look at some of the companies in the US:-

1. If this new variant is not as bad as people feared, then the reopening plays could still be in place eg. Airlines, Cruises, Hospitalities etc. I have ABNB, DIS and Uber but will not likely add to them yet.

2. For Commodities, if this Omicron variant can be controlled, then Commodities may also rebound eg. Oil, Copper, Gold etc. However, there's also the USD rise (interest rate rise), to worry about. I have XOP, GDX, GDXJ and SLV. I'm now watching XME and COPX.

The above are some of my random thoughts on where I think the bargains are. Please do feel free to contact me if you see any other bargains.

You may have noticed that my current strategy is to look for Cheap & Hated stocks that are beginning their Uptrend. This has been thought at Daily Wealth and I find this strategy quite suitable for the current situation.

Finally, for next week, the markets could have a small spike due to the new money from the new month. Thereafter, we will be touching Year End Window Dressing season.

Therefore, I'm trying to carefully buy this dip but I dont want to finish all of my bullets, in case this could be the Big One (which I'm not expecting yet).


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (39% from 36% last week from 33% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 13% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 32% (9 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 26% (10 Counters); Time Difference; Focusing on ETFs.
d. Malaysia: 29% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 30%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$68.17 from US$75.67 last week from US$80.72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$85 for a long time
c. When will the US and China release their SPR? < 1 Day of Demand
d. Will the Nu Covid really reduce demand for Oil?
e. Vested in XOP
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1791 from US$1847 from US$1868;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$23.15 from US$24.65 from US$25.41;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.28 from US$4.40 from US$4.45;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$46.25 from US$46.20;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Lower. US$54,577 from US$58,338 from US$63,806 @ 11.23 AM on Nov 27, 2021)
a. Record: US$67,534
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
e. How will the India restrictions be affecting cryptos?
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear; 31 from 58 from 81;

1. US Equities - Lower; 4595 from 4698 from 4683;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4525; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: Forward PE 22
c. Bought ABNB
d. Bought XOP

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24080 from 25050 from 25328;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Tencent
d. Added to ASM Pacific
e. Traded Nongfu Spring
f. Sold AIA
g. Sold New Oriental Education

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3564 from 3560 from 3539;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3166 from 3232 from 3228;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 28752 from 29746 from 29610;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1512 from 1526 from 1531;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Added to KPower
b. Bought Hume Cement
c. Bought Malayan Cement


Curencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Nov 26 @ 2.10 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 114.61 from 114.02 last week from 114.21 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0932 from 3.0720 from 3.0759;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7138 from 0.7238 from 0.7294;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1222 from 1.1280 from 1.442;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7971 from 7.7911 from 7.7912;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.2406 from 4.1820 from 4.1654;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3707 from 1.3613 from 1.3544;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.3910 from 6.3872 from 6.3927;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 96.68 from 96.03 from 95.21;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 1.55% from 1.55% from 1.57%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.56% from 0.51% from 0.54%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 107.48 from 108.08 from 108.54;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.09 from 86.56 from 86.82;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2678 from 2552 from 2844; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 05, 2021

Big Picture.jpg

The Big Picture (Update)

A lot has happened over the past few weeks so I thought that it's timely to look at the 'Big Picture" again.

1. Interest Rates:- The US cannot afford to increase interest rates due to their high deficit. Therefore, I think Powell may taper but he will not increase rates quickly despite the change in his story on transitory inflation. I think he's still waiting for the stimulus money to hit the market first.

2. Inflation:- Commodities have been dropping and Powell now have more wiggle room to delay the rate hike.

3. USD:- If US interest rates are not rising then the USD will also not be rising that quickly.

4. Commodities:- If the USD is not rising then Commodities would probably not fall too much from the current prices.

5. Liquidity:- If crypto collapses, there could be margin calls which may take away some Liquidity from Equities too.

6. Global Economy:- Muddling through on Covid19 Rolling Lockdowns. I still think that things will only recover in 1Q, 2023. Stagflation is now being discussed. The WHO reported that Omicron is now in 38 countries with no deaths yet we are behaving as if the world is ending.

7. Sentiments:- At Extreme Fear (20) on the CNN Fear Greed Index. That's normally the time to buy for a bounce but I'm hesitating.

8. Earnings:- Forward guidance seems to be weak in the last reporting season. Are they trying to sandbag things?

9. US Stock Market:- Getting volatile. Window Dressing should be coming up soon.

10. HK Stock Market:- Cheap becoming cheaper. If I want to buy then I should be prepared to hold for 2 years. Trading in this type of market is very difficult.

11. Trading Tactic:- The Market Direction is not in my favour to be long stocks. Therefore, I need to remind myself to be not too adventurous and take unnecessary risk. Instead, I should be lightening my exposure to Equities. Things will probably be choppy until 2H 2022 so it's better to hunker down, conserve some bullets and wait patiently to pick up things in a few months time.

For next week, I would be looking at the following:-
1. Dec 10: US - CPI


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (41% from 39% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 13% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 32% (9 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 31% (12 Counters); Time Difference; Focusing on ETFs.
d. Malaysia: 24% (12 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 30%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$66.27 from US$68.17 last week from US$75.67 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$85 for a long time
c. When will the US and China release their SPR? < 1 Day of Demand
d. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1784 from US$1791 from US$1847;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$22.56 from US$23.15 from US$24.65;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.27 from US$4.28 from US$4.40;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$46.00 from US$46.25 from US$46.20;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Lower. US$47,559 from US$54,577 from US$58,338 @ 6.15 PM on Dec 4, 2021)
a. Record: $67,534; Support: $41,827, $29,832
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Extreme Fear; 20 from 31 from 58;

1. US Equities - Lower; 4538 from 4595 from 4698;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4525; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: PE 26; Forward PE 22
c. Nasdaq: PE 36; Forward PE 30
d. U.S. Equity Market Cap is about 215% of U.S. GDP (highest)
d. Bought DOCU
e. Bought GRAB
d. Sold XOP

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23767 from 24080 from 25050;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Bought Sands
d. Bought Evergrande NEV
e. Traded Meituan
f. Sold 1/3 ASM Pacific

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3607 from 3564 from 3560;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3102 from 3166 from 3232;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower; 28030 from 28752 from 29746;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1502 from 1512 from 1526;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold 1/2 Hartalega


Curencies: Mixed (Data from XE.com on Dec 04 @ 6.30 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 112.79 from 114.61 last week from 114.02 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD weaker; 3.0830 from 3.0932 from 3.0720;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7006 from 0.7138 from 0.7238;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1312 from 1.1222 from 1.1280;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7957 from 7.7971 from 7.7911;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.2310 from 4.2406 from 4.1820;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3724 from 1.3707 from 1.3613;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3764 from 6.3910 from 6.3872;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 96.12 from 96.68 from 96.03;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.36% from 1.55% from 1.55%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.59% from 0.56% from 0.51%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 107.28 from 107.48 from 108.08;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.00 from 86.09 from 86.56;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3171 from 2678 from 2552; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 12, 2021

Window Dressing.jpg

Year-End Window Dressing

The markets have been moving higher and I think that it's due to Year-End Window Dressing activities.

As mentioned, I'll be using any "rip" to lighten my exposure to Equities.

I think that things may be a bit slow after the first week of January, so whenever there's any opportunity to sell, I will probably be doing it.

I also need to remind myself not to be buying any dips unless it's a "very convincing buy:".

And if I still do want to buy, I should first look at the 5 year charts, to see how far things have moved since March 2020.

There are now many risks in the markets and any one of them can explode eg. Omicron, High Valuation, High Debt Levels, Tapering, Rates Increase, Supply-Chain Issues, Lower Margins, Regulations, Geo-Politics etc.

I'm also starting to feel a bit "burnt-out" so I should take a trading break and go for a short vacation. It has been more than two years since I have gone somewhere for a short vacation.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (37% from 41% last week from 39% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 14% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 34% (10 Counters); Trading Market
c. US: 25% (10 Counters); Time Difference; Focusing on ETFs Only
d. Malaysia: 27% (12 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 30%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$71.95 from US$66.27 last week from US$68.17 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$85 for a long time
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. US to sell 18m barrels on Dec 17, 2021
e. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Flat. US$1783 from US$1784 from US$1791;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$22.21 from US$22.56 from US$23.15;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Flat. US$4.29 from US$4.27 from US$4.28;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$45.00 from US$46.00 from US$46.25;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$47975 from US$47,559 from US$54,577 @ 10.00 AM on Dec 11, 2021)
a. Record: $67,534; Support: $41,827, $29,832
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear; 38 from 20 from 31

1. US Equities - Higher; 4712 from 4538 from 4595;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4525; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: PE 24; Forward PE 22
c. Nasdaq: PE 36; Forward PE 30
d. U.S. Equity Market Cap is about 215% of U.S. GDP (highest)
d. Sold DOCU
e. Sold ABNB

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23996 from 23767 from 24080;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Sold Sands
d. Traded Alibaba

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3666 from 3607 from 3564;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3136 from 3102 from 3166;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28438 from 28030 from 28752 from 29746;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1489 from 1502 from 1512;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. No Trade


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Dec 11 @ 10.30 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 113.38 from 112.79 last week from 114.61 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0852 from 3.0830 from 3.0932;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7172 from 0.7006 from 0.7138;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.1318 from 1.1312 from 1.1222;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7987 from 7.7957 from 7.7971;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.2129 from 4.2310 from 4.2406;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3655 from 1.3724 from 1.3707;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.3701 from 6.3764 from 6.3910;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Flat; 96.10 from 96.12 from 96.68;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.48% from 1.36% from 1.55%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 0.65% from 0.59% from 0.56%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.07 from 107.28 from 107.48;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 86.63 from 86.00 from 86.09;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 3272 from 3171 from 2678; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

[winston]

TOL @ Dec 19, 2021

Trading Break.jpg

Trading Break

As mentioned last week, I'm starting to wind down my trading activity for the year.

However, if any of my existing counter is spiking up due to window dressing activity, I will probably be selling it.

At the same time, I will probably not be buying into any dips unless it's a very convincing story. This is because I dont expect the market to be strong over the next few months.

BTW, I just saw an article by "The Shark" Deporre which explained things very clearly:-
1. Right now, Fundamentals and Valuations 'Don’t Matter'
2. The U.S. stock market is already deep into a bear market but the indexes simply don't reflect that fact.
3. Stocks can drop to very low levels before the value buyers start to show up
4. His plan is to have a very high level of cash and to buy favorites only when they start acting better
5. He wants to buy strengths rather than weaknesses.
6. That means he wont be able to buy the absolute bottom but his goal is to buy sustained movement to the upside and that generally requires some strength first.

We will also be touching 2022 very soon and the investment houses are now coming out with their ideas for next year. The following is from CIMB:-
1. Beneficiaries of the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) hike
2, Value and Laggard plays
3. Recovery plays
4. Electric Vehicle (EV) plays
5. ESG; Environment, Social and Governance picks and
6. High Dividend-Yielding stocks.

I will be using my next week or two to think about the upcoming investment themes. Like they say, "there's always a bull-market somewhere". You just need to be on the look-out for it.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor "Nett Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (36% from 37% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal; Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 14% (4 Counters); Boring Market
b. HK: 32% (9 Counters); Bear Market
c. US: 26% (10 Counters); Time Difference; Focusing on ETFs Only
d. Malaysia: 29% (11 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country.

3. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Around 26%
Goal: To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$70.30 from US$71.95 last week from US$66.27 two weeks ago;
Support: US$62, US$29; Resistance: US$105 (2014);
a. When will Iranian Oil be available?
b. I dont think the US will permit Oil to exceed US$85 for a long time
c. US and China SPR: < 1 Day of Demand
d. US selling 18m barrels around Dec 17, 2021
e. Will Omicron really reduce demand for Oil?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1798 from US$1783 from US$1784;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. They cant print gold
b. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
c. Will money be flowing out of cryptos into gold?
d. Rising Interest Rates and Rising USD, would not be good for gold
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX, GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$22.37 from US$22.21 from US$22.56;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
c. Vested in SLV
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Flat. US$4.29 from US$4.29 from US$4.27;
Support: 4.00; 3.08 (S2); 3.52 (S3); 2.25 (S5); Resistance: 4.75;
a. Is the rebound in the Global Economy for real?
b. Demand: +40% over next 10 years
c. Deficit: -0.5m tonnes by 2024
d. Supply: 14 years for operational new mine
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

5. Uranium; Flat; US$44.10 from US$45.00 from US$46.00;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 50; 73 (2011); 140 (2007);
a. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ( SRUUF) to purchase up to $1 billion in additional uranium in the next few months.
b. Pandemic: decrease in production and related services.
c. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.

6. Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$46812 from US$47975 from US$47,559 @ 1.40 PM on Dec 18, 2021)
a. Record: $67,534; Support: $41,827, $29,832
b. BITO - US Listed Bitcoin ETF
c. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
d. US$500,000 Target by Cathie Woods by 2026
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Fear; 26 from 38 from 20

1. US Equities - Higher; 4712 from 4538 from 4595;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 4525; 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4750
b. S&P 500: PE 24; Forward PE 22
c. Nasdaq: PE 36; Forward PE 30
d. U.S. Equity Market Cap is about 215% of U.S. GDP (highest)
d. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23193 from 23996 from 23767;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 23100; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31200; 33500
c. Sold Tencent

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3632 from 3666 from 3607;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower; 3112 from 3136 from 3102;
Resistance 3850
a. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher; 28546 from 28438 from 28030;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level
e. No Trade

6. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1502 from 1489 from 1502;
https//investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Sold 1/4 KPower


Curencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Dec 18 @ 2.20 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 113.72 from 113.38 last week from 112.79 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0843 from 3.0852 from 3.0830;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7126 from 0.7172 from 0.7006;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1239 from 1.1318 from 1.1312;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.8027 from 7.7987 from 7.7957;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No Hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.2189 from 4.2129 from 4.2310;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3679 from 1.3655 from 1.3724;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.3754 from 6.3701 from 6.3764;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

10. Dollar Index - USD Higher; 96.57 from 96.10 from 96.12;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=20


Others

Market Sentiment - Fear
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.41% from 1.48% from 1.36%;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 0.64% from 0.65% from 0.59%;

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 107.73 from 108.07 from 107.28;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.37 from 86.63 from 86.00;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2379 from 3272 from 3171; Low 290; High 11,400 (2008)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiqiud counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Please do use the above at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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