Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

From Fear to Euphoria

stock confusion.jpg

Last week, we had one of the biggest drop in the US market. This week, we had one of the biggest rise.

And if you have listened to the doom gurus last week and sold, you would not be too happy this week.

And if you are listening to the optimists now, will you be disappointed next week ?

The volatility tells me that there's not much conviction either way. That means that the best way to "play" this market now, is to trade it.

As for myself, I may be selling some of my "short-term" positions next week if it's still not too late. At the same time, I may also buy some puts to protect my existing long-term portfolio.

This roller coaster ride is not too healthy so I will also have to reduce my exposure to Equities further.


Commodities:- - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$81 from US$83 from US$86

2. Gold - Lower. US$1231 from US$1239 from US$1223. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$17 from US$17 from US$17. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.04 from US$3.00 from US$3.04

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1965 from 1887 from 1906

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23303 from 23023 from 23089. Traded Gome and WH Group.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2303 from 2341 from 2375

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3223 from 3168 from 3224. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15292 from 14533 from 15301

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1819 from 1788 from 1809. Traded TMC Life

7. Warrants - Traded Bull Call 60656, Bear Puts 68563 and Puts 16928


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 108 from 107 from 108. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.57 from 2.57 from 2.55. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.88 from 0.88 from 0.87

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.12 from 1.12 from 1.11. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.88 from 2.87 from 2.83. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.27 from 1.28 from 1.26

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7573 from 7.7576 from 7.7600. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 85.73 from 85.11 from 85.91


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Debts (US$5t); China Collapse, European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; China's Gold (3000 tonnes); Santa Rally; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices

4. Risk Management - How was your portfolio when it went through a big drop and then recovered ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.27% from 2.19% from 2.28%



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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[winston]

TOL as of Nov 2, 2014

New Month

November.jpg

It's a new month so there's new money flowing into the market again. Therefore, I need to remind myself again, that I should not be shorting the market aggressively until mid-November.

Anyway, the market is now behaving irrationally. Just two weeks ago, it was telling you that the sky is falling. Now, it's all sunshine and roses.

And isn't it a a bit of a coincidence that the Japanese are enlarging their QE, right after the end of the QE in the US?

As for myself, the situation has not really changed. I'm still using any rally to pare my exposure to the Equities. In Life, if you do not make use of your Second Chance, then you only have yourself to blame for it.

If there's any stock that I would like to keep, I need to ensure that I'm comfortable holding it, for at least 3 years.

I'm also using this rally to increase my exposure to Put Warrants and Inverse ETF, to buy some insurance for my existing portfolio.


Commodities:- - Mixed

1. Oil - Flat. US$81 from US$81 from US$83

2. Gold - Lower. US$1174 from US$1231 from US$1239. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$16 from US$17 from US$17. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.05 from US$3.04 from US$3.00

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2018 from 1965 from 1887

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23998 from 23303 from 23023. Bought Tianhe Chemical. Traded WH Group. Sell 1/2 Poly Culture, China Cinda and SHK Company

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2420 from 2303 from 2341. Sold A50 2822 ETF

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3274 from 3223 from 3168. Sold Shen Shiong and Fraser Commercial

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 16414 from 15292 from 14533

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1855 from 1819 from 1788. Traded TMC Life, Menang and Menang Warrants. Sold Teck Seng and Sapura Kencana

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded HSI Bull Call 60706. Bought S&P Short ETF and HSI Put 16928


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 112 from 108 from 107. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.56 from 2.57 from 2.57. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.88 from 0.88 from 0.88

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.13 from 1.12 from 1.12. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.89 from 2.88 from 2.87. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.25 from 1.27 from 1.28

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7550 from 7.7573 from 7.7576. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 86.92 from 85.73 from 85.11


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Debts (US$5t); China Collapse, European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; China's Gold (3000 tonnes); Santa Rally; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices

4. Risk Management - What is your Cash level ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.34% from 2.27% from 2.19%

7. Interest Rates:-
a. Brazil raised interest rates by 25bps
b. Russia raised interest rates by 150 bps, from 8% to 9.5%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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[winston]

TOL as of Nov 9, 2014

Time to Sell & Short ?

Sell.jpg

We are now touching the second week of November. That means that the new money from the new month, would have been deployed already.

In addition, the US Earnings season is winding down and there would be one less catalyst, to push the market higher.

In view of the above, I'm expecting a period of weakness in the market, until the year-end Window-Dressing period.

Therefore, I have been selling into the strength and buying some Puts and Inverse ETF, to protect my existing positions.

At the same time, I have to be also a bit careful, as the Central Bankers are definitely coordinating with each other, to push the markets higher.

Anyway, I will probably have to sell my puts and Inverse ETF by mid-December, just before the Window-Dressing period.


Commodities:- - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$78 from US$81 from US$81

2. Gold - Higher. US$1179 from US$1174 from US$1231. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$17. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.03 from US$3.05 from US$3.04.

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Mixed

1. US Equities - Higher. 2032 from 2018 from 1965

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23550 from 23998 from 23303. Traded Tianhe Chemical and WH Group.

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2418 from 2420 from 2303.

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3286 from 3274 from 3223. Sold Saizen Reit

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 16880 from 16414 from 15292

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1824 from 1855 from 1819. Traded Menang and GOB. Bought Berjaya Corp. Menang's AGM is on Nov 12th.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Sold HSI Put 16928


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 115 from 112 from 108. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.60 from 2.56 from 2.57. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.86 from 0.88 from 0.88

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.11 from 1.13 from 1.12. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.89 from 2.89 from 2.88. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.25 from 1.25 from 1.27

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7528 from 7.7550 from 7.7573. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 87.64 from 86.92 from 85.73


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise; Rising Interest Rates

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; Santa Rally; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices

4. Risk Management - How much would you be losing if your portfolio drops by 15% ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.30% from 2.34% from 2.27%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Asian Section - Please note that you will need to sign in, to view Asian News and the Asian stocks section

[winston]

TOL as of Nov 16, 2014

Complacency ?

Complacency.jpg

The US markets are grinding higher while everyone has forgotten about the dip 3 weeks ago.

The bulls are now talking about Buybacks as US Earnings season is over. Thereafter, they see new money flowing into the market from the new month of December. After that, it's time for the Santa Rally, Year-End Window Dressing and the Presidential Cycle.

In view of the above, why would anyone not be fully invested in the market ?

And t's precisely the above complacency that I'm feeling quite uneasy. This is because any small event can be magnified and used as an excuse to sell. Whenever the markets are high, the participants will go out to search for an excuse to take profits.

As for next week, I will be continuing to buy Puts and S&P Short ETFs while reducing my exposure to Equities. And if we dont have a correction over the next few weeks, then I would sell my Puts and Inverse ETFs as we would then be quite safe until mid-January.


Commodities:- - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$76 from US$78 from US$81

2. Gold - Higher. US$1188 from US$1179 from US$1174. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.04 from US$3.03 from US$3.05

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2040 from 2032 from 2018

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24087 from 23550 from 23998. Bought Std Chartered; Traded Tianhe Chemical and WH Group. Sold BBMG

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2479 from 2418 from 2420. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3316 from 3286 from 3274. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17491 from 16880 from 16414

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1814 from 1824 from 1855. Bought TMC Life, Pelikan, AAX and Datasonic; Traded MyEG

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Bought S&P Short ETF


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 116 from 115 from 112. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.58 from 2.60 from 2.56. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.88 from 0.86 from 0.88

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.13 from 1.11 from 1.13. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.93 from 2.89 from 2.89. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.25 from 1.25 from 1.25

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7546 from 7.7528 from 7.7550. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 87.53 from 87.64 from 86.92


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise; Rising Interest Rates

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; Santa Rally; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices

4. Risk Management - What event with strong bearish undertone, can emerge now ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.32% from 2.30% from 2.34%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Nov 23, 2014

Standing Aside

StandingAside.jpg

The US markets are still grinding higher and the latest excuses to buy, were from:-
1. the interest rates cut in China
2. Draghi yapping about his "whatever it takes" again and
3. the tax postponement in Japan.

Anyway, do you not find it a bit funny, that stocks in the US are moving up because of the poor global economic conditions ?

For the past week, I could only find one trading idea in HK, while there was no trading idea for Singapore and Malaysia.

For next week, I currently do not have any trading idea. Perhaps this is a sign that I should be taking a trading break.

I'm still selling into any rally and I will sell my S&P Short ETF by December 15.

Finally, this is supposed to be a traditional weak period for US stocks, yet people are still buying. Or perhaps the buying were from machines, as rational people would not be really chasing after high stock prices.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$77 from US$76 from US$78

2. Gold - Higher. US$1202 from US$1188 from US$1179. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$16 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.03 from US$3.04 from US$3.03

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2064 from 2040 from 2032

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23437 from 24087 from 23550. Bought WH Group. Traded Jing Wei

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2487 from 2479 from 2418. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3345 from 3316 from 3286. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17358 from 17491 from 16880

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1809 from 1814 from 1824. Bought Menang and Menang Warrants. Sold AAX

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade


Currencies- Risk Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 118 from 116 from 115. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.58 from 2.58 from 2.60. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.87 from 0.88 from 0.86

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.13 from 1.13 from 1.11. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.91 from 2.93 from 2.89. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.24 from 1.25 from 1.25

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7581 from 7.7546 from 7.7528. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 88.31 from 87.53 from 87.64


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise; Rising Interest Rates

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; Santa Rally; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices

4. Risk Management - Reminding myself about Asset Allocation, Position Sizing,Trailing Stop-Loss, Catalysts and Set-Ups

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.31% from 2.32% from 2.30%

7. Interest Rates
a. Indonesia increased interest rates by 25 bps to 7.75%
b. China reduced interest rates by 40 bps to 5.6%



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Asian Section - Please note that you will need to sign in, to view Asian News and the Asian stocks section

[winston]

TOL as of Nov 30, 2014

gut feeling.jpg

Funny Feeling

Have you ever had that funny feeling that things are not that right ?

But when you look around you, everything seems normal.

In addition, the "experts" are saying that the markets would continue to rise, as the Central Bankers would be ensuring that there's adequate liquidity.

Anyway, I'm a firm believer that when markets are frothy, the participants would go and search for an excuse to take profits.

So are we now at that frothy stage or do we still have a few more years to go ?

For the past few weeks, I have been trying to sell into any rally. Yet, I have also been adding new positions. Therefore, I will need to be more disciplined as it's very easy to get carried away when everyone around you is so bullish.

By the way, if things are that great, why are the central bankers adding liquidity ?

Is there an accident out there, just waiting to happen ? And do you have that funny feeling that things may not be that right ?

At the same time, I need to also check on my feelings as there's a saying that you never fight the Feds or the Tape. At the beginning of a bull run, that saying may be true. However, is that saying still valid at the final leg of the run ?

Finally, do you have an exit plan in place, in case that funny feeling of yours proved correct ?


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$66 from US$77 from US$76

2. Gold - Lower. US$1167 from US$1202 from US$1188. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$15 from US$16 from US$16. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Lower. US$2.86 from US$3.03 from US$3.04

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Flat. 2066 from 2064 from 2040

2. HK Equities - Higher. 23987 from 23437 from 24087. Traded WH Group. Sold Minmetal Land and Standard Chartered. Appled for CGN IPO.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2683 from 2487 from 2479. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3351 from 3345 from 3316. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17460 from 17358 from 17491

6. Malaysian Equities - Higher. 1821 from 1809 from 1814. Bought MAA, Datasonic, TMC Life, Puncak Niaga and Menang

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade


Currencies- Risk On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 119 from 118 from 116. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.59 from 2.58 from 2.58. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.85 from 0.87 from 0.88

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.11 from 1.13 from 1.13. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.88 from 2.91 from 2.93. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.25 from 1.24 from 1.25

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7538 from 7.7581 from 7.7546. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Flat. 88.28 from 88.31 from 87.53


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise; Rising Interest Rates

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; Santa Rally; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices

4. Risk Management - What's your exit strategy ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.16% from 2.31% from 2.32%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Asian Section - Please note that you will need to sign in, to view Asian News and the Asian stocks section

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 7, 2014

upcoming events.jpg

Upcoming Events

As we head into the year-end, I think that it's time to have a look at some of the upcoming events:-.
1. New Money flowing from the new month of December
2. Options Expiry
3. US Tax Loss Selling
4. Santa Rally & Year End Window Dressing
5. New Money flowing from the new month of January
6. January Effect
7. Interest Rates Cut in China
8. QE in Europe
9. US Fiscal Debate in March 2015


As for #1 above, the new money from the new month of December, would probably have been deployed by next week.

For #4 above, the Year End Window Dressing, I'm starting to think that it might be a bit muted, as it has been a good year.

In view of the above, I'm starting to think that the US markets may not be going anywhere until early January. In addition, the recent drop in junk bonds and the current overbought indicators, are also making me a bit uncomfortable.

Anyway, I find it very difficult to trade in this type of market:-
1. you are buying at multi-year highs
2. the global economic news are not that great
3. you are relying on the Central Bankers to continue providing liquidity and
4. the "experts" are continuing their mantra that that there's no place else to put your money besides the stock-markets.

I think that it's very important to think independently now and to look at each investment on it's own merit. If you still want to trade, there's a need to ensure that your Risk Management tools are in place ie. Asset Allocation, Position Sizing, Trailing Stop Loss etc.,

As for myself, I have been cutting back on my purchases while trying to sell into any rallies. I have also added to my S&P Short ETF position this week.

In the meantime, the Shanghai Exchange seems to be on fire. I'm not sure how long this rally can last but I will probably buy on any dips. However, I would like to remind myself that when you play with fire, do make sure that you don't get burnt.


Commodities:- - Risk-On

1. Oil - Flat. US$66 from US$66 from US$77

2. Gold - Higher. US$1193 from US$1167 from US$1202. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$16 from US$15 from US$16. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Higher. US$2.91 from US$2.86 from US$3.03

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2075 from 2066 from 2064

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24003 from 23987 from 23437. Traded WH Group and Yizheng Chemical. Applied for Nirvana Asia IPO

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2938 from 2683 from 2487. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3324 from 3351 from 3345. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17920 from 17460 from 17358

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1749 from 1821 from 1809. Bought MAA and Menang. Sold 1/3 TMC Life

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Bought S&P Short ETF


Currencies- Risk On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 121 from 119 from 118. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.62 from 2.59 from 2.58. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.83 from 0.85 from 0.87

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.10 from 1.11 from 1.13. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.89 from 2.88 from 2.91. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.23 from 1.25 from 1.24

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7512 from 7.7538 from 7.7581. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 89.36 from 88.28 from 88.31


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise; Rising Interest Rates

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; Santa Rally; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices

4. Risk Management - How many stocks do you have in your portfolio ? Are you able to give all of them your due attention ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - The 'experts" are expecting a 10-15% drop before the removal of the cooling measures
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.31% from 2.16% from 2.31%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 13, 2014

contrarianchart.jpg

Anxiety or Fear ?

From the chart above, I think that for the US markets, we are probably between the Anxiety and Fear.

As for the HK and Shanghai markets, we are probably between Euphoria and Anxiety.

And with the Malaysian market, I think that it's between Fear and Panic

As for the Singapore market, who really cares ? It has been in the ICU for such a long time

Now that the US market is correcting, the Feds will probably be using some soothing words next week (as if it's going to matter to the machines).

And if the US markets can affect the Chinese market next week, then we will be getting the RRR cut sooner than expected (as if it's going to help the Chinese retail players who have been buying on margins).

As mentioned, I do not see any need for any US Window Dressing this quarter as it has been a good year. Therefore, the US markets may be weak until January. In addition, Oil companies do make up about 15% of the S&P 5000 and about 15% of the US Junk Bonds and I dont see any quick recovery in Oil prices soon. ( Cheap can become cheaper ).

BTW, it's also US Option expiry next week. Therefore, things can get quite volatile especially if the machines do also decide to get into the action, which I'm expecting.

As for myself, I will probably sit on my S&P Short ETF until January. In the meantime, I need to continuously remind myself that the Market Direction is not strong, so I should lighten up on my exposure to Equities until early January.

At this point in time, I'm only expecting a correction and not a crash. However, in 1997, I was also expecting a dip and not a crash. And so was the case in 2007. Anyway, we still have 2 more years to the 10 year cycle but with the internet now, will the 10 year cycle be shortened to an 8 year cycle (with the quick dissemination of information) ?

Finally, we still do not have a new generation of fools entering the markets yet ( except for maybe in China ). Therefore, the current players would have experienced some sort of crash before. And these current players will not have any problem taking their profits or cutting their losses. This will ensure that whenever there is a small market rally, people would be selling into that rally.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$57 from US$66 from US$66

2. Gold - Higher. US$1222 from US$1193 from US$1167. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$17 from US$16 from US$15. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Higher. US$2.93 from US$2.91 from US$2.86

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 2002 from 2075 from 2066

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23249 from 24003 from 23987. Bought WH Group and China Cinda. Sold CGN Power IPO. Did not apply for Nirvana Asia, Dalian Wanda nor BAIC.

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat. 2938 from 2938 from 2683. Bought A50 2823 ( 2.5% Div ex-Monday )

4. Spore Equities - Flat. 3324 from 3324 from 3351. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 17372 from 17920 from 17460

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1733 from 1749 from 1821. Bought MUI. Sold MAA.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - No Trade


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 119 from 121 from 119. The 52 week range is 76 to 122

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.66 from 2.62 from 2.59. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.83 from 0.83 from 0.85

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.08 from 1.10 from 1.11. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.88 from 2.89 from 2.88. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.25 from 1.23 from 1.25

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7513 from 7.7512 from 7.7538. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Lower. 88.36 from 89.36 from 88.28


Others

1. Sentiment - Anxiety

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise; Rising Interest Rates

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; Santa Rally; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices

4. Risk Management - Did the drop in Oil and the US markets surprised you ? What else are you missing also ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% on Sentosa
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.08% from 2.31% from 2.16%, Risk-Off

7. Interest rates
a. Russia hiked interest rates by 100bps to 10.5%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 21, 2014

Euphoria ?

Euphoria.jpg

The Dow has gone up about 800 points over the past three days. Is this rational market behavior ?

And what has really changed over the past three days, that made people want to chase Equities so much ?

Anyway, if you are Trader, you may need to go with the flow and do some momentum trading (with a trailing stop loss of course).

And, if you are an Investor, you will need to decide on whether there's still value in the market and that you have an adequate margin of safety.

As for myself, I don't think that anything has really changed over the past few days. Therefore, I'm still sticking of my strategy of selling into any rally and raising cash, for any special opportunity that may come along later.

Finally, I need to also remind myself that market turnover will be very low next week, so there's a need to be extra careful, in case anyone wants to push the markets, either up or down.

Wishing you a very Merry X'mas and a Happy 2015 !


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$57 from US$57 from US$66

2. Gold - Lower. US$1195 from US$1222 from US$1193. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$16 from US$17 from US$16. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Lower. US$2.90 from US$2.93 from US$2.91

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2071 from 2002 from 2075

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23117 from 23249 from 24003. Bought Nirvana Asia and AVIC. Traded CGN Power and SJM.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3109 from 2938 from 2938. Sold A50 2823

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3280 from 3324 from 3324. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17621 from 17372 from 17920

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1716 from 1733 from 1749. Sold MUI. Traded MAA.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded S&P Short ETF


Currencies- Risk Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 120 from 119 from 121. The 52 week range is 76 to 122

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.65 from 2.66 from 2.62. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.81 from 0.83 from 0.83

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.07 from 1.08 from 1.10. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.84 from 2.88 from 2.89. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.22 from 1.25 from 1.23

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7531 from 7.7513 from 7.7512. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 89.60 from 88.36 from 88.28


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise; Rising Interest Rates; US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Bad Debts

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; Santa Rally; Year end Window Dressing; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - European, Japanese & Chinese;

4. Risk Management - How independent is your thinking ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% on Sentosa
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.16% from 2.08% from 2.31%

7. Net Exposure to Equities - 31% (Long 35%; Short 4%)


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Dec 21, 2014

Euphoria ?

Euphoria.jpg

The Dow has gone up about 800 points over the past three days. Is this rational market behavior ?

And what has really changed over the past three days, that made people want to chase Equities so much ?

Anyway, if you are Trader, you may need to go with the flow and do some momentum trading (with a trailing stop loss of course).

And, if you are an Investor, you will need to decide on whether there's still value in the market and that you have an adequate margin of safety.

As for myself, I don't think that anything has really changed over the past few days. Therefore, I'm still sticking of my strategy of selling into any rally and raising cash, for any special opportunity that may come along later.

Finally, I need to also remind myself that market turnover will be very low next week, so there's a need to be extra careful, in case anyone wants to push the markets, either up or down.

Wishing you a very Merry X'mas and a Happy 2015 !


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$57 from US$57 from US$66

2. Gold - Lower. US$1195 from US$1222 from US$1193. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$16 from US$17 from US$16. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Lower. US$2.90 from US$2.93 from US$2.91

5. Monitoring Commodities. It's cheap, hated, cheap but not on uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2071 from 2002 from 2075

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23117 from 23249 from 24003. Bought Nirvana Asia and AVIC. Traded CGN Power and SJM.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 3109 from 2938 from 2938. Sold A50 2823

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3280 from 3324 from 3324. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 17621 from 17372 from 17920

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1716 from 1733 from 1749. Sold MUI. Traded MAA.

7. Warrants & Inverse ETF - Traded S&P Short ETF


Currencies- Risk Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 120 from 119 from 121. The 52 week range is 76 to 122

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.65 from 2.66 from 2.62. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.81 from 0.83 from 0.83

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.07 from 1.08 from 1.10. H 1.36; L 1.08; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.84 from 2.88 from 2.89. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.22 from 1.25 from 1.23

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7531 from 7.7513 from 7.7512. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Higher. 89.60 from 88.36 from 88.28


Others

1. Sentiment - Euphoric ?

2. Headwinds - Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); China Debts (US$5t); European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise; Rising Interest Rates; US Oil Capex (US$1t ); Russian Bad Debts

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; Santa Rally; Year end Window Dressing; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices; QE - European, Japanese & Chinese;

4. Risk Management - How independent is your thinking ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - Luxury prices down 20% from 2012 peak and about 40% on Sentosa
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding and then dropping later ?

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.16% from 2.08% from 2.31%

7. Net Exposure to Equities - 31% (Long 35%; Short 4%)


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.