Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 17, 2014:-

trading break.jpg

Trading Break

I've been actively trading the markets for the past 2.5 months. And it has been quite a tough market.

There were various headwinds eg Russia, Yellen, Europe, US Earnings, China Slowdown, World Cup etc.

To manage risk, I've been cutting my losses early.

So the end result, is a lot of trading but not a lot of profits.

As for next week, Yellen will be speaking at Jackson Hole while I intend to take a few days off to recharge.

I recalled reading somewhere that if you are only at 90% mental efficiency, you will start to break-even. And anything less than 90%, you will start to lose money.

I'm also reminding myself that if I want to be trading with the best and brightest, I will need to also have an edge over them. Can I really analyze the companies better than the people out there ? Or can I really read the charts better than the people out there ? If not, then what's my edge ?


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$97 from US$98 from US$98

2. Gold - Lower. US$1306 from US$1312 from US$1293. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. $20 from $20 from US$20. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.11 from US$3.18 from US$3.22

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1953 from 1932 from 1925

2. HK Equities - Higher. 24955 from 24331 from 24532. Bought Austnutria, Jintian Pharma and Zhaojin. Sold Austnutria, SJM, Galaxy, Sand China and Zijin

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2227 from 2194 from 2185

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3315 from 3289 from 3344. Bought Gallant and Fraser Centrepoint. Sold JMH

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15318 from 14778 from 15523

6. Malaysian Equities - No trade


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 102 from 102 from 103. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.53 from 2.56 from 2.58. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.93 from 0.93 from 0.93 .

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.17. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.94 from 2.98 from 2.99. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.34 from 1.34 from 1.34

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7503 from 7.7516 from 7.7500. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Flat. 81.4 from 81.4 from 81.3


Others

1. Sentiment - Cautious

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Slowdown, European Contagion, Ukraine, Higher Oil Prices ( Nigeria ), Iraq, Gaza, Russia

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources

4. Risk Management - Time to short-sell, buy puts and inverse etfs ?

5. Properties - Prime properties in Spore dropped about 8% yoy. Dropping slowly in Malaysia. HK may be rebounding.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.34% from 2.42% from 2.49%

7. Interest rates
a. Bank of Korea cut the seven-day repurchase rate to 2.25 percent from 2.5 percent
b. Chile's central bank reduced its key rate by 25 bps


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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[winston]

TOL as of Aug 24, 2014:-

Vacation.jpg

On Vacation ?

I'm currently on vacation but it's really hard to take my mind off the markets.

And if this is happening to me, what about the other traders that are on their summer holidays ?

If that's the case, the other traders also thinking of Jackson Hole, Russia, China's PMI, Iraq etc.

So will they be Selling, Buying or Holding on to their positions ?

This time, I can "feel" that sentiments are not that great and everyone is worried about a correction.

Therefore, I need to remind myself to be a bit careful. However, it's still probably too early to short the market eventhough Soros has started to buy some put options and Buffett has raised his cash level to about US$50b.


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$93 from US$97 from US$98

2. Gold - Lower. US$1282 from US$1306 from US$1312. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. $19 from $20 from $20. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.20 from US$3.11 from US$3.18

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1988 from 1953 from 1932

2. HK Equities - Higher. 25112 from 24955 from 24331. Bought Austnutria, Dynam, Zhaojin, Biostime, Zijin and Shangdong Xinhua. Sold Austnutria, Jintian Pharma and Biostime

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2241 from 2227 from 2194

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3326 from 3315 from 3289. Sold JMH & JSH

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15539 from 15318 from 14778

6. Malaysian Equities - No trade


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 104 from 102 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Flat. 2.53 from 2.53 from 2.56. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.93 from 0.93 from 0.93 .

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.16. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.94 from 2.94 from 2.98. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.32 from 1.34 from 1.34

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7502 from 7.7503 from 7.7516. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 82.3 from 81.4 from 81.4


Others

1. Sentiment - Cautious

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Slowdown, European Contagion, Ukraine, Higher Oil Prices ( Nigeria ), Iraq, Gaza, Russia

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources

4. Risk Management - Time to raise more cash ?

5. Properties - Prime properties in Spore dropped about 8% yoy. Dropping slowly in Malaysia. HK may be rebounding.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.40 % from 2.34% from 2.42%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Aug 31, 2014:-

sep.jpg

Happy September !

It's going to be a new month and new money would be flowing into the market again. Therefore, things should quite safe for the next week.

But what would the traders be doing when they get back from their summer vacation ?

Will they be buying because it will be Window Dressing time in about 3 weeks ? Or would they be selling because of the higher valuation, geopolitical risks, tapering etc ?

As for myself, I can "feel" that sentiments are not that great and people are selling into any rallies. However, the Alibaba IPO would be here soon so they would need to support the market until then.

Anyway, I've updated my notes on the headwinds below, just in case I've to exit the markets very quickly.


Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$96 from US$93 from US$97

2. Gold - Higher. US$1288 from US$1282 from US$1306. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$20 from US$19 from US$20. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.16 from US$3.20 from US$3.11

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2003 from 1988 from 1953

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24742 from 25112 from 24955. Bought Jintian Pharma, CMOC, Galaxy, Mengniu, Biostime and Shangdong Xinhua. Sold Austnutria, Jintian Pharma and Mengniu.

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2217 from 2241 from 2227

4. Spore Equities - Flat. 3327 from from 3326 from 3315. No trade.

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 15425 from 15539 from 15318

6. Malaysian Equities - No trade. My biggest position is still in Menang. They have just announced a great set of results. Revenue up 17%; EPS up 104%. viewtopic.php?f=77&t=6044


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 104 from 104 from 102. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.52 from 2.53 from 2.53. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.93 from 0.93 from 0.93 .

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.16. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.94 from 2.94 from 2.94. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.31 from 1.32 from 1.34

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7501 from 7.7502 from 7.7503. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 82.3 from 81.4 from 81.4


Others

1. Sentiment - Cautious

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Debts (US$5t); China Collapse, European Contagion, Higher Oil Prices (Nigeria), Iraq, Russia; Declining USD; US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise;

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; China's Gold (3000 tonnes)

4. Risk Management - Can your portfolio withstand a 25 year depression ?

5. Properties - Properties dropping in Spore and Malaysia. HK may be rebounding.

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.34% from 2.40 % from 2.34%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Sep 07, 2014:-

Risk.jpg

Risk Management

We are touching the traditional weak period of the year.

Will the market correct after the 3Q Window Dressing ? Or would the traders be forced to buy, as the momentum is strong ?

As for myself, I'm starting to buy some S&P Inverse ETF and Put Warrants, to protect myself. It's still not a big position yet, as I want to "feel" the market first.

In the meantime, I need to also monitor the Position Size of my existing positions, as well as sell away any Unconvincing Story. If there's any counter in my portfolio that I'm not prepared to keep for 3 years, I should also sell it too.

Finally, I'm also reminding myself that when things crash, it's very likely that I will not be able to get out in time eg. 1987.


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$93 from US$96 from US$93

2. Gold - Lower. US$1269 from US$1288 from US$1282. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$19 from US$20 from US$19. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.17 from US$3.16 from US$3.20

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2008 from 2003 from 1988

2. HK Equities - Higher. 25240 from 24742 from 25112. Sold Jintian Pharma, CMOC, Galaxy and Shangdong Xinhua

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2326 from 2217 from 2241

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3342 from 3327 from 3326. Bought Kris Energy, RH Petrogas and Sheng Shiong

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15669 from 15425 from 15539

6. Malaysian Equities - 1868. No trade.

7. Puts & Short-Selling - Bought S&P Inverse ETF & Put Warrant 29279 in HK


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 105 from 104 from 104. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR weaker. 2.54 from 2.52 from 2.53. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.94 from 0.93 from 0.93 from 0.93 .

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.18 from 1.17 from 1.16. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.98 from 2.94 from 2.94. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.30 from 1.31 from 1.32

7. NZD to SGD - Monitoring NZD. Currently at 1.04

8. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7502 from 7.7501 from 7.7502. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 83.76 from 82.3 from 81.4


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Debts (US$5t); China Collapse, European Contagion, Higher Oil Prices (Nigeria), Iraq, Russia; Declining USD; US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise;

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; China's Gold (3000 tonnes)

4. Risk Management - Can your portfolio withstand a depression ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.46% from 2.34% from 2.40%

7. Interest rates - ECB cut the three main interest rates by 10 basis points


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Sep 14, 2014:-

stock-photo-street-trading-market-advice-financial-investing-symbol-with-a-graffiti-texture-of-a-bull-and-a-110872046.jpg

Trading Market ?

The market was weak this week. However, it was still not that weak where you can short it with conviction.

Therefore, it's still a "trading market" ie. sell into any rallies and buy on the dips.

Next week, it's Fed time again and the week thereafter, it's probably "Window Dressing".

In view of the above, it may be a good idea for me to continue staying nimble and flexible.


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$92 from US$93 from US$96

2. Gold - Lower. US$1229 from US$1269 from US$1288. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$19 from US$19 from US$20. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.10 from US$3.17 from US$3.16

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's cheap and hated. However, it's still not on an uptrend yet.


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1986 from 2008 from 2003

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24595 from 25240 from 24742. Bought BBMG and WH Group. Sold Biostime and Zijin.

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2332 from 2326 from 2217

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3346 from 3342 from 3327. Bought Guocoland

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15948 from 15669 from 15425

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1856 from 1868. Traded Abric Warrants

7. Puts & Short-Selling - Sold Put Warrants 29279 in HK


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - USD Stronger. 105 from 104 from 104. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger. 2.54 from 2.52 from 2.53. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.90 from 0.94 from 0.93.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.14 from 1.18 from 1.17. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.89 from 2.98 from 2.94. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.30 from 1.30 from 1.31

7. USD to HKD - HKD Strong. 7.7506 from 7.7502 from 7.7501. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 84.2 from 83.8 from 82.3


Others

1. Sentiment - Cautious

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Debts (US$5t); China Collapse, European Contagion, Higher Oil Prices (Nigeria, Iraq & Russia); Declining USD; US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise;

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; China's Gold (3000 tonnes)

4. Risk Management - How's your Asset Allocation ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.61% from 2.46% from 2.34%

7. Interest rates - Philippines raised interest rates by 25 basis points


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Asian Section - Please note that you will need to sign in, to view Asian News and the Asian stocks section

[winston]

TOL as of Sep 21, 2014:-

WD.jpg

3Q Window Dressing

It's Window Dressing time again.

And I dont think that it's a coincidence that the market was strong this week.

As for next week, the Window Dressing activities should be in full force.

Therefore, I would probably be selling into the rally, while reminding myself not to buy any Inverse ETFs or Puts until Oct 1.

In the meantime, I'm going through my portfolio and making sure that everything there is a Convincing Buy, that can endure a stock market slump of at least 3 years.

I also need to regularly remind myself of the following saying, "When times are good, it's a good time to prepare for the bad times".


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Higher. US$93 from US$92 from US$93

2. Gold - Lower. US$1217 from US$1229 from US$1269. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$18 from US$19 from US$19. Range High: 49;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.09 from US$3.10 from US$3.17

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-On

1. US Equities - Higher. 2010 from 1986 from 2008

2. HK Equities - Lower. 24306 from 24595 from 25240. Bought WH Group and SHK Co. Sold WH Group, SHK Co and Dynam.

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2329 from 2332 from 2326

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3305 from 3346 from 3342. Sold Hotung.

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 16321 from 15948 from 15669

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1849 from 1856 from 1868. No Trade

7. Puts & Short-Selling - No Trade


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 109 from 105 from 104. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.55 from 2.54 from 2.52. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.89 from 0.90 from 0.94.

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.13 from 1.14 from 1.18. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.88 from 2.89 from 2.98. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.28 from 1.30 from 1.30

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7512 from 7.7506 from 7.7502. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 84.8 from 84.2 from 83.8


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Debts (US$5t); China Collapse, European Contagion, Higher Oil Prices (Nigeria, Iraq & Russia); Declining USD; US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise;

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; China's Gold (3000 tonnes)

4. Risk Management - Time to sell into the rally ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.57% from 2.61% from 2.46%

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Asian Section - Please note that you will need to sign in, to view Asian News and the Asian stocks section

[winston]

TOL as of Sep 28, 2014:-

hellooctober.jpg

A New Month Again

October will be here quite soon and new money for the new month, will be arriving soon.

In view of the above, as well as the 3Q Window dressing over the next two days, I'm reminding myself not to short the market yet.

In addition, the set-up for a profitable short is still not present and I must learn not to be too early to the party.

As for next week, I will continue to trade the various markets on the long side, while keeping an eye on the emergency exit.

Speaking of trading, I'm still trying to refine my trading style:-
1. buy when the sellers are being bought
2. think very short term and dont get married to the counter
3. sell when the buyers are being sold to
4. cut your losses very short and never carry forward a loss over 2 days.
5. never buy a cheap hated stock until there's an uptrend. Cheap can become cheaper.
6. let your winners run. High can become higher
7. take windfall gains else somebody else will take it
etc.


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Flat. US$93 from US$93 from US$92

2. Gold - Higher. US$1220 from US$1217 from US$1229 . Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$18 from US$18 from US$19. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.04 from US$3.09 from US$3.10

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1983 from 2010 from 1986

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23678 from 24306 from 24595. Bought Austnutria.

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2348 from 2329 from 2332

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3292 from 3305 from 3346 from 3342. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 16230 from 16321 from 15948

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1841 from 1849 from 1856. Buy Berjaya Corp. Traded Menang and Menang Warrants

7. Puts & Short-Selling - Traded 66554 HSI Bear Put


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 109 from 109 from 105. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.56 from 2.55 from 2.54. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.88 from 0.89 from 0.90

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.12 from 1.13 from 1.14. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.86 from 2.88 from 2.89. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.27 from 1.28 from 1.30

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7576 from 7.7512 from 7.7506. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 85.64 from 84.8 from 84.2


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Debts (US$5t); China Collapse, European Contagion, Higher Oil Prices (Nigeria, Iraq & Russia); Declining USD; US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise;

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; China's Gold (3000 tonnes)

4. Risk Management - Remember your 4 enemies - Greed, Fear, Arrogance & Ignorance

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.53% from 2.57% from 2.61%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

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[winston]

TOL as of October 05, 2014:-

earnings.jpg

US Earnings Season

It's US Earnings Season again so the market should be quite safe for another week or two. Therefore, I'm reminding myself not to short or buy any puts yet.

Later, the US markets may also be getting some tail-wind from "The Santa Rally" and thereafter, "The Presidential Cycle".

Next week, I will continue to "momentum-trade" some Malaysian shares, as they seemed to be insulated from the various geopolitical events. In addition, some selected Malaysian shares may also be played up, before the budget on Friday.

HK is starting to become cheap but I'm reminding myself that "cheap can become cheaper". It's still a very fluid situation in HK and I dont want to be too early if the situation worsens in HK. However, it may be a good time to nibble at some H-Shares, in preparation for the HK-SH Connect later.

As for Singapore shares, I cant seemed to be able to find any convincing stories at fair valuation. Hence, I have not been actively trading Singaporean shares for quite a while.

I have been channeling my time and energy into Malaysian shares where they are more exciting. The "experts" can probably use me as a leding indicator that Malaysian shares may be topping up soon.

I have not been trading Malaysian shares since the Clob saga and over the past few weeks, I've been interested in Malaysian shares again. Hopefully, I'm nimble enough to run quickly before the Malaysian shares starts their descend down.


Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$90 from US$93 from US$93

2. Gold - Lower. US$1191 from US$1220 from US$1217 . Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$17 from US$18 from US$18. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.00 from US$3.04 from US$3.09

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1968 from 1983 from 2010

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23065 from 23678 from 24306. Bought WH Group and Austnutria. Traded HKEX

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2364 from 2348 from 2329

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3253 from 3292 from 3305. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 15709 from 16230 from 16321

6. Malaysian Equities - Flat. 1841 from 1841 from 1849 . Bought Dialog. Sold Berjaya Corp. Traded MUI, Tek Seng, KNM, Takaso, Menang and Menang Warrants

7. Puts & Short-Selling - No Trade. Need to keep on reminding myself that there's still no fear in the market and that I need to wait for the set-up first.


Currencies- Risk-Off

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 110 from 109 from 109. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.54 from 2.56 from 2.55. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.87 from 0.88 from 0.89

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.11 from 1.12 from 1.13. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.83 from 2.86 from 2.88. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.25 from 1.27 from 1.28

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7607 from 7.7576 from 7.7512. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 86.64 from 85.64 from 84.80


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Debts (US$5t); China Collapse, European Contagion, Higher Oil Prices (Nigeria, Iraq & Russia); Declining USD; US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise;

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; China's Gold (3000 tonnes); Santa Rally; Presidential Cycle

4. Risk Management - How safe is your money in the bank ? What's the amount that the government will compensate you if the bank go under?

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant; Iskandar's bubble has burst ? Am looking at some condos in KL.
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.43% from 2.53% from 2.57%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

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[winston]

Complacency ?

complacency-two.jpg

What were you doing on Friday, when the Dow corrected 300+ points ? And if you are sitting on some paper losses now, what will you be doing next week?
1. Buying / Averaging down ?
2. Cutting your losses ?
3. Waiting to sell into the technical rebound ?
4. Holding as you have "great businesses" in your portfolio ?
5. Dont know because you are like the deer staring into the headlights of a truck ?

BTW, the "experts" are now talking about better-than-expected US earnings. But would US earnings be really better-than-expected, in view of the high USD ? ( A high USD would reduce the overseas earning of the US companies ).

And after the US earnings season, the "experts" are talking about the "Santa Rally" and thereafter, the "Presidential Cycle".

With so many tailwinds, why are you afraid then ? And isn't the ultra low interest rates ensuring that there's no other game in town, except for the share market ?

As for myself, I'm reminding myself that it's very easy to be complacent in this type of market. And it's always better to take a small loss than to allow it to become a big loss. It's also very easy to allow a "short term speculation" to become a "long term investment".

Despite what the "experts" are saying, the market is always correct and I need to behave accordingly.

Finally, I need to also remind myself of the 4 horsemen of the market - Greed, Fear, Arrogance and Ignorance.


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$86 from US$90 from US$93

2. Gold - Higher. US$1223 from US$1191 from US$1220. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$17 from US$17 from US$18. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.04 from US$3.00 from US$3.04

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1906 from 1968 from 1983

2. HK Equities - Flat. 23089 from 23065 from 23678. Bought China Cinda. Sold Austnutria. Traded Tianhe Chemical

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2375 from 2364 from 2348. Bought 2822 A50

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3224 from 3253 from 3292. Bought RH Petrogas. Sold Kris Energy

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 15301 from 15709 from 16230

6. Malaysian Equities - Flat. 1809 from 1841 from 1841. Bought Menang and Sapura Kencana. Sold Dialog. Traded Censof and Menang Warrants

7. Puts & Short-Selling - Sold DBXT S&P Short ETF


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 108 from 110 from 109. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.55 from 2.54 from 2.56. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat. 0.87 from 0.87 from 0.88

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.11 from 1.11 from 1.12. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.83 from 2.83 from 2.86. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.26 from 1.25 from 1.27

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7600 from 7.7607 from 7.7576. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 85.91 from 86.64 from 85.64


Others

1. Sentiment - Complacent

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Debts (US$5t); China Collapse, European Contagion, Higher Oil Prices (Nigeria, Iraq & Russia); Declining USD; US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise;

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; China's Gold (3000 tonnes); Santa Rally; Presidential Cycle

4. Risk Management - Peter Lynch: "If you want to panic, do it early"

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.28% from 2.43% from 2.53%
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Asian Section - Please note that you will need to sign in, to view Asian News and the Asian stocks section

[winston]

Selling into the rebound ?

roller coaster.jpg

It was a roller-coaster ride this week. And the plunge may be a bit too much for some people.

The question now is: "Do you want to sell into the technical rebound or risk losing some of the gains that you have made back ?

The technical "experts" are saying that this volatility may last a few weeks. The fundamental "experts" are saying that the selling is over and there's no other place to put your money.

As for myself, I think that the volatility would continue and it does not hurt to take some money off the table.

When things are on sale later, the money can then be redeployed. However, I do not think that it will be a fire-sale as there's no fear in the market yet.

But when you can feel the fear, would you still be able to run ?

Finally, I'm quite happy that I have reduced my exposure to Equities by about 20% before this ride. However, a say 10% hit to my existing portfolio will still hurts. Hence, I may be selling into any strong technical rebound next week .


Commodities:- - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Lower. US$83 from US$86 from US$90

2. Gold - Higher. US$1239 from US$1223 from US$1191. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Flat. US$17 from US$17 from US$17. Range High: 49

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.00 from US$3.04 from US$3.00

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk-Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1887 from 1906 from 1968

2. HK Equities - Lower. 23023 from 23089 from 23065. Sold Austnutria. Traded Tianhe Chemical and HSI Call 16631

3. Shanghai Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2341 from 2375 from 2364

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3168 from 3224 from 3253. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14533 from 15301 from 15709

6. Malaysian Equities - Lower. 1788 from 1809 from 1841. Bought Menang Warrants. Traded Sapura Kencana and Tek Seng.

7. Put Warrants & Short-Selling - No Trade


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 107 from 108 from 110. The 52 week range is 76 to 105

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.57 from 2.55 from 2.54. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.88 from 0.87 from 0.87

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.12 from 1.11 from 1.11. H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.87 from 2.83 from 2.83. Vested

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.28 from 1.26 from 1.25

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7576 from 7.7600 from 7.7607. 52 week range is 7.7497 - 7.7677. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Weaker. 85.11 from 85.91 from 86.64


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Rating Agencies' Downgrades , Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates (Mar 2015); Tapering, China Debts (US$5t); China Collapse, European Contagion, US Unfunded Debts (US$170t); Fed Leverage (77:1); Global Derivatives (US$700t); US Treasury Collapse; Declining Money Velocity; Increasing Misery index; US Bank Debts (US$60t); Stock-Market Cap to GDP ( 200% ); Petrodollar Demise

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, Great Rotation; New Energy Sources; China's Gold (3000 tonnes); Santa Rally; Presidential Cycle; Low Oil Prices

4. Risk Management - How much would you lose if your portfolio drops 10% ?

5. Properties
a. Spore - HDBs dropped by about 8% in the past year
b. Malaysia - 30% of the condos in KL are vacant
c. HK - rebounding

6. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.19% from 2.28% from 2.43%

7. Interest rates- Bank Of Korea Cuts Benchmark Rate To 2.00%


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Asian Section - Please note that you will need to sign in, to view Asian News and the Asian stocks section