Winston's Investment Ideas 02 (Apr 10 - Jul 12)

[kennynah]

what you think?

[winston]

Thanks K.

So you will be buying on dips then

Yes, I have the same feeling too. I think the correction is probably over for now. The question is how high it will bounce from here and whether I want to sell into the strength.

Headwinds include Europe after Wednesday, coming US downgrade again, US deficits bickering, deleveraging etc.

[winston]

TOL as of October 30, 2011:-


Happy Halloween !




It's the time of the year to go "trick or treating".

And the clowns in Europe, have decided to give you a trick, instead of the customary treat.

So were you "shocked and awed" by their EUR 1 trillion trick ?

Or would you have prefered to have a few candies, although they could have been spiked ?

Finally, why did you go "trick or treating" at the clowns tent and subjected yourself to some potential harm ? What happened to your Risk Management skills ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$93 from US$87 last week from US$87 the previous week. Didn't the "experts" say that there would be a record number of Hurricanes this year ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1745 from US$1640 last week from US$1681 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested. Now that Deepavali is over, what's the next catalyst ?

3. Silver - Stronger. US$35.27 from US$31.33 last week from US$32.16 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$29.84; Missed the boat again ?

4. Commodities - Now that the USD is dropping, are you going to be chasing Commodities ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2473 from 2317 last week from 2431 the previous week. Support at 2300 ? Will they be reducing the RRR selectively for some banks ?

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 20019 from 18026 last week from 18502 the previous week. Was he rally due to the expirations of Futures & Options ? Resistance at 19500 taken out. Next stop at 20,500? Support at 16250 ? Sold Anhui Conch, CNBM & China Yurun. Bought Little Sheep.

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2906 from 2712 last week from 2744 the previous week. Sold 50% Fraser Commercial.

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1285 from 1238 last week from 1225 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Resistance at 1270 taken out. Next resistance at 1300 then 1350 ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 9050 from 8679 last week from 8748 the previous week. Support at 8500 then 8375 ? Resistance at 9100 ? And how many more Olympus Scandals are out there in Corporate Japan ?

10. JPY - Record. 75.83 from 76.29 last week from 77.22 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.68 to 77.44. Are the exporters hurt yet, from the high Yen and the slow global economy ?

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows ; http://www.epfr.com/

12. AUD - Stronger @ 1.0703 from 1.0370 last week from 1.0345 the previous week. Vested

13. EUR - Stronger. EUR @ 1.4148 from 1.3896 last week from 1.3878 the previous week. Time to get out of my EUR Fixed Deposits which I have been siting on for about 5 years. By the way, the latest Italian Bond auctions were at a record yield.

14. USD - Weaker. 75.08 from 76.39 last week from 76.61 the previous week.

15. Properties - Weaker. New projects in Shanghai were launched at a 20% discount

16. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD @ 7.7646 from 7.782 last week from 7.778 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113. Turnover on the HKSE increased significantly on Thursday & Friday, even exceeding HK$100b on Friday versus about HK$65b for an average day.

17. Sentiment - Stronger. What has changed since the last week ? And was there really any chance that the EFSF will not be getting their EUR 1 trillion or that the hair cut would not be 50% ?

18. Economies of Developed Markets - The latest US earnings does not support the case of a Depression.

19. Risk Management- Time to be a bit careful with the risk-on trades. This rally is now about 4 weeks old.

20. Hedge Funds - Have not heard of any major redemptions

21. Leverage - Will the Investment Banks be selling into the strength, to reduce their leverage ?

22. Credit Markets - No warning signs yet, from the TED spread, Euribor-OIS spread or the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan Investment Grade index.

23. Market Direction - Stronger

Now that we got the breakout, what will you be doing ?
1. Chase the rally ?
2. Wait for the dip, before buying again ?
3. Sell into the strength ? or
4. Short-Sell / Buy some Puts because you dont believe that the European issues have been sorted out ?

As for myself, I have been selling into the strength and raising some cash. However, I still think there would be a year-end Window Dressing rally, so I would probably be buying on any dips over the next few weeks.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind
thoughts and comments


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[Chinaman]

Now that we got the breakout, what will you be doing ?
1. Chase the rally ?
2. Wait for the dip, before buying again ?
3. Sell into the strength ? or
4. Short-Sell / Buy some Puts because you dont believe that the European issues have been sorted out ?

As for myself, I have been selling into the strength and raising some cash. However, I still think there would be a year-end Window Dressing rally, so I would probably be buying on any dips over the next few weeks.

so long i breakeven or at most profit of 5%.....I will sell into the strength.

stock market is not my cup of tea.....despite my gut feel dat once Greek debt problem settle the bull awake and market 'choing' again till CNY in mid'Jan.....some fund mgr are slowly buying in now.

[winston]

TOL as of November 6, 2011:-





Trading Market

This looks like a "Trading Market" again.

And this was the movement in HK this week:-
a. Down 2.5% on Tuesday
b. Up 1.8% on Wednesday
c. Down 2.4% on Thursday
d. Up 3.1% on Friday

With this type of movement, you are forced to either quit the market completely or you become a "Day Trader".

And if you decide to morph into a "Day Trader", why bother with Equities, when you can trade "Bull or Call Warrants" at leverages of between 20 times to 40 times ?


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$94 from US$93 last week from US$87 the previous week. The demand during this period is normally "low" as summer driving is over and winter is not here yet.

2. Gold - Stronger. US$ 17588 from US$1745 last week from US$1640 the previous week. Record US$1920. Lower interest rates will be good for gold. Vested.

3. Silver - Weaker. US$34.12 from US$35.27 last week from US$31.33 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$29.84; Still watching.

4. Commodities - Nowadays, Supply & Demand does not really matter anymore. It's all about the news coming out of Europe

5. Shanghai Equities - Stronger. 2528 from 2473 last week from 2317 the previous week. Support at 2300 ? Resistance at 2570 ? And when will they be reducing the RRR selectively, for some banks ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 19843 from 20019 last week from 18026 the previous week. Resistance at 20,500 and then 25,000? Support at 18000 ? Traded Little Sheep and China Yurun.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2848 from 2906 last week from 2712 the previous week. Sold CHT. Converted Saizen Warrants to Shares.

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1253 from 1285 last week from 1238 the previous week. Support at 1200 ? Resistance at 1285, 1300 then 1350 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8801 from 9050 last week from 8679 the previous week. Support at 8500 then 8375 ? Resistance at 9100 ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 78.24 from 75.83 last week from 76.29 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 77.44.

Will the other countries continue to allow Japan to intervene since a weaker JPY leads to a higher USD and thus, lower Equities and Commodities ?

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows ; http://www.epfr.com/

12. AUD - Weaker. 1.0375 from 1.0703 last week from 1.0370 the previous week. RBA also reduced interest rates by 25 bps. Is that going to be a new trend ? Vested

13. EUR - Weaker. 1.379 from 1.4148 last week from 1.3896 the previous week. Sold my EUR which I've held for 5 years, with a return of 3.6% pa.

Greece is now probably passe. Italy is next and 10-year Italian bonds hit a euro lifetime high of 6.43%. In addition, Berlusconi may have already lost his majority, with the defection of two MPs.

Massive demonstration in Rome now and there will be a vote of no confidence against Berlusconi, maybe as soon as next week.

14. USD - Stronger. 76.91 from 75.08 las week from 76.39 the previous week.

15. Properties - Weaker. New projects in HK were launched at a 30% discount

16. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.768 from 7.7646 last week from 7.782 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

Turnover on HK dropped to HK$72b from HK$78b last week from HK$56b the previous week.

17. Sentiment - Mixed. It's all about Europe and this could continue for another few years.

18. Economies of Developed Markets - Muddling through for a few more years ?

19. Risk Management- Which is your weakness: Greed, Fear, Arrogance and Ignorance ?

20. Hedge Funds - How's the redemptions ?

21. Leverage - Is MF Global the tip of the iceberg ?

22. Interest Rates - The ECB and the RBA reduced interest rates by 25 bps each. Is this a new trend ?

23. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings

24. Tailwinds - Lower Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash - Sideline, Corporations & Bonds, Buybacks, Twist & QE

25. Market Direction - Erratic

Just when you think it's safe to go back into the water, the Greeks dropped some Naval Mines. And the Italians are just waiting around the corner, to drop their Naval Mines too.

With so many Naval Mines around, why would you want to go back into the water ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind
thoughts and comments



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[winston]

TOL as of November 13, 2011:-




Trading Market ( Part 2 )

With the Dow correcting 400 points on one day and then retracing 370 points over the next two days, what choice does one have but to trade this market ?

1. Would "Buy & Hold" works, in this type of market ?
2. Would "Buy High, Sell Higher" works, in this type of market ?
3. Would "Dividends Investing" works, in this type of market ?
4. Would "Short Low, Cover Lower" works, in this type of market ?

So maybe it's back to the good old fashion, "Buy on Dips, Sell into Strength" strategy.

Or if one wants to be a bit adventurous, one can also "Short the Rally then Cover on Dips".

Either way, it's a "Trading Market" and I need to constantly remind myself to behave accordingly.

Alternatively, one can always watch from the sidelines, if one cannot stand the volatility


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$99 from US$94 last week from US$93 the previous week. Is Oil pricing in some problems in Iran or was it due to the lower USD ? Missed the boat ?

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1789 from US$ 1758 last week from US$1745 the previous week. Record US$1920. Didnt the parrots say that gold will be weak ? Vested.

3. Silver - Stronger. US$ 34.65 from US$34.12 last week from US$35.27 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$29.84; Resistance at US$38 ? Still watching.

4. Rubber - Plunged 16 percent this month as the Thailand flood cut automobile output

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2481 from 2528 last week from 2473 the previous week. Support at 2300 ? Resistance at 2570 ? And when will they be selectively reducing the RRR ? Watching A50.

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 19137 from 19843 last week from 20019 the previous week. Resistance at 20,500 ? Support at 18000 ? Sold Little Sheep. Bought China Yurun, SJM and China Merchant Bank.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2791 from 2848 last week from 2906 the previous week. Bought Noble, Genting and China Mingzhong.

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1264 from 1253 last week from 1285 the previous week. Support at 1220 ? Resistance at 1285 then 1300 ? Traded S&P Inverse ETF

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8514 from 8801 last week from 9050 the previous week. Support at 8500 then 8375 ? Resistance at 9100 ? And why would you want to invest in this country ? Watching Japan ETF.

10. JPY - Stronger. 77.19 from 78.24 last week from 75.83 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50. When will they intervene again ? And will the other countries continue to allow Japan, to intervene ?

11. Emerging Markets - Inflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. AUD - Weaker. 1.0279 from 1.0375 last week from 1.0703 the previous week. Vested

13. EUR - Weaker. 1.375 from 1.379 last week from 1.4148 the previous week. Not vested anymore.

14. 10 Year Italian Bonds - 6.335%; Record 7.483%.

15. USD - Flat. 76.90 from 76.91 last week from 75.08 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

16. Properties - Weaker. New projects in HK and China were launched at a 30% discount. Transactions have decreased significantly as well.

17. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7778 from 7.7680 last week from 7.7646 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

Turnover on HKSE also dropped to HK$ 60b from HK$72b last week from HK$78b the previous week.

18. Sentiment - Weak. It's hard to be bullish when you can suddenly get a 400 points plunge on the Dow.

19. Risk Management- Did you manage to protect yourself when the Dow dropped 400 points ? Did your Stop Loss managed to protect you, when it gap downwards ?

20. Economies of the Developed Markets - Latest US numbers shows an improvement but it's still a muddling through situation

21. Hedge Funds - November 15th deadline for Jan 1st redemption

22. Deleveraging - Are the IBs continuing to raise capital whenever the market rallies ?

23. Interest Rates - Indonesia reduced interest rates by 50 bps each.

24. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements

25. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash - Sideline, Corporations & Bonds, Buybacks, Twist & QE

26. Market Direction - Trading Market.

Buy Dips & Sell Rallies ?

However, Year-End Window Dressing is also about 1.5 months away.

Therefore, I should start switching to a "Buy & Hold" strategy over the next few weeks.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

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Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[kennynah]

a good idea to take the profits when they arise...if you are a micro term trader

but if it is a longer term investment, stick to your conviction in your market view, give it enough deviation room, and let the situation pan out...

[winston]

TOL as of November 20, 2011:-


Triple Top ?




I dont really use charts to trade but I cant help seeing a "Triple Top" forming on the S&P 500.

However, I have not heard anyone mentioning "Triple Top" on CNBC yet.

Anyway, the market does "feel" quite weak, so it does not hurt, to be a bit more careful.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Weaker. US$97 from US$99 last week from US$94 the previous week.

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1726 from US$1789 last week from US$ 1758 the previous week. Record US$1920.

3. Silver - Weaker. US$32.31 from US$ 34.65 last week from US$34.12 the previous week. High: $48.58; Low: US$29.84; Resistance at US$38 ? Margins requirement raised in Shanghai.

4. Commodities - How low can Commodities go with the Strong USD, Ongoing Deleveraging and the Global Slowdown ?

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2417 from 2481 last week from 2528 the previous week. Support at 2400 then 2320 ? Resistance at 2570 ? And when will they be selectively reducing the RRR ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 18491 from 19137 last week from 19843 the previous week. Resistance at 20,500 ? Support at 18000 ? Sold China Merchant Bank & Lansen. Bought Lianhua. Added to SJM.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2730 from 2791 last week from 2848 the previous week. Sold Genting. Added to China Mingzhong.

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1216 from 1264 last week from 1253 the previous week. Support at 1220 ? Resistance at 1285 then 1300 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8375 from 8514 last week from 8801 the previous week. Sitting at strong support of 8375. Next Support at 8100.? Resistance at 9100 ?

10. JPY - Stronger. 76.91 from 77.19 last week from 78.24 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50. When will they intervene again ?

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. AUD - Weaker. 1.001 from 1.0279 last week from 1.0375 the previous week. Vested

13. EUR - Weaker. 1.3524 from 1.375 last week from 1.379 previous week.

14. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 6.64% from 6.335% last week ; Record 7.483%.

15. USD - Stronger. 78.07 from 76.90 last week from 76.91 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

16. Properties - Weaker. Transaction volumes are coming down.

17. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD @ 7.7881 from 7.7778 last week from 7.7680 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7500 - 7.8113.

Turnover on HKSE also dropped to HK$59b from HK$ 60b last week from HK$72b the previous week.

18. Sentiment - Weak. Chinese Water Torture - drip drip drip until it feels like a stone hitting your face.

19. Risk Management- May have to raise more Cash and then sit on it for a few weeks

20. Economies of the Developed Markets - Who cares about the weekly US data anymore ?

21. Hedge Funds - Redemption at John Paulson's Fund was minimal, despite his poor performance.

22. Deleveraging - MF Global was leveraged 100 to 1. What about the rest of the players ?

23. Interest Rates - Yields are rising on the European Bonds. And when will they spike up for the US and Japan ?

24. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements

25. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash - Sideline, Corporations & Bonds, Buybacks, Twist & QE

26. Market Direction - Weak

May need to be a bit more careful.

Market is very weak and any slightest news can trigger those sell orders.

It's still about 6 weeks to the year-end, so I will need to stagger in the buying.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of November 27, 2011:-



Santa Claus Rally ?

The traditional Santa Claus rally will supposedly start in about two weeks.

Is your portfolio ready for that rally ?

And what happens if Santa Claus does not show up this year, as in 2008 ?



The week in review:-

1. Oil - Flat. US$97 from US$97 last week from US$99 the previous week. Still expecting Oil to fall.

2. Gold - Weaker. US$1686 from US$1726 last week from US$1789 the previous week. Record US$1920.

3. Silver - Weaker. US$31.08 from US$32.31 last week from US$ 34.65 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$29.84; Resistance at US$38 ? Still watching.

4. Commodities - A brewing La Nina weather could worsen the monsoon rains and limit production of some soft commodities.

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2380 from 2417 last week from 2481 the previous week. Support at 2320 ? Resistance at 2570 ? Will the soft landing morph into a hard planding ? When will the NPLs appear ?

6. HK Equities- Weaker. 17689 from 18491 last week from 19137 the previous week. Resistance at 20,500 ? Support at 16250 ? No Trade.

7. Spore Equities- Weaker. 2644 from 2730 last week from 2791 the previous week. Bought Hutch Port. Added to China Mingzhong.

8. US Equities- Weaker. 1159 from 1216 last week from 1264 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Resistance at 1285 ?

9. Japan Equities - Weaker. 8160 from 8375 last week from 8514 the previous week. Support at 8100.? Resistance at 9100 ? And why would you want to invest in this country ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 77.745 from 76.91 last week from 77.19 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50. When will they intervene again ?

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. AUD - Weaker. 0.9714 from 1.001 last week from 1.0279 the previous week. Vested

13. EUR - Weaker. 1.323 from 1.3524 last week from 1.375 the previous week.

14. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher; 7.26% from 6.64% last week from 6.335% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

15. USD - Stronger. 79.63 from 78.07 last week from 76.90 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

16. Properties - HK & China is weaker. However, Singapore is still quite strong.

17. Liquidity - Weaker. HKD 7.7966 from 7.7881 last week from 7.7778 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7605 - 7.7972.

Daily Turnover on HKSE also dropped to HK$51b from HK$59b last week from HK$ 60b last week.

18. Sentiment - Weaker. Can you feel the anger and frustrations on TV and in the blogsphere ?

19. Risk Management- How fast can you run, if Santa Claus does not show up this year ?

20. Economies of the Developed Markets - Can the festive shopping save US, Europe & Japan ?

21. Hedge Funds - No news on any major redemption

22. Deleveraging - MF Global was leveraged at 100 to 1. Taunus ( of DB ) is leveraged at 80 to 1. What about the rest of the players ?

23. Interest Rates - Yields are rising on the European Bonds. When will they also spike up for the US and Japan ?

24. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements

25. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash - Sideline, Corporations & Bonds, Buybacks, Money Printing, Twist & QE

26. Market Direction - Weaker

It will probably be "opportunistic trading", for the next two weeks.

Am not expecting any major movement .

Alternatively, it may be time to take a "trading break" to recharge before the expected Santa Claus rally.

And if Santa does not show up by around December 20th, I may have to sell some Equities by December 31st. Or I may have to buy some Puts to protect the portfolio.


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of December 4, 2011:-




How long will Santa be staying ?

Santa is early this year and I'm a bit concern.

That's because we still have almost 4 more weeks to go, before the year end.

At this point in time, I'm still expecting some Window Dressing and it should begin in a weeks time.


The week in review:-

1. Oil - Stronger. US$101 from US$97 last week from US$97 the previous week.

2. Gold - Stronger. US$1746 from US$1686 last week from US$1726 the previous week. Record US$1920.

3. Silver - Stronger. US$32.56 from US$31.08 last week from US$32.31 the previous week. Range High: $48.58; Range Low: US$29.84; Resistance at US$38 ? Still watching.

4. Commodities - The weaker USD should be providing a strong tail-wind for Commodities

5. Shanghai Equities - Weaker. 2361 from 2380 last week from 2417 the previous week. Support at 2320 ? Resistance at 2570 ?

6. HK Equities- Stronger. 19040 from 17689 last week from 18491 the previous week. Resistance at 20,500 ? Support at 16250 ? Sold SJM.

7. Spore Equities- Stronger. 2773 from 2644 last week from 2730 the previous week. Sold Hutch Port, 1/2 Noble and 1/3 China Mingzhong.

8. US Equities- Stronger. 1244 from 1159 last week from 1216 the previous week. Support at 1120 ? Resistance at 1285 ?

9. Japan Equities - Stronger. 8644 from 8160 last week from 8375 the previous week. Support at 8100.? Resistance at 9100 ?

10. JPY - Weaker. 77.99 from 77.75 last week from 76.91 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 79.50.

11. Emerging Markets - Outflows; http://www.epfr.com

12. AUD - Stronger. 1.0215 from 0.9714 last week from 1.001 the previous week. Vested

13. EUR - Stronger. 1.3389 from 1.323 last week from 1.3524 the previous week.

14. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower; 6.68% from 7.26% last week from 6.64% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

15. USD - Weaker. 78.63 from 79.63 last week from 78.07 the previous week. Vested thru HKD.

16. Properties - Interest rate are rising in HK

17. Liquidity - Stronger. HKD 7.7675 from 7.7966 last week from 7.7881 the previous week. 52-week range is 7.7605 - 7.7972.

Daily Turnover on HKSE increased to HK$67b from HK$51b last week from HK$59b the previous week.

18. Sentiment - Stronger. Looks like the Central Bankers are quite determined to flush the system with Liquidity.

19. Risk Management- It may be time to take some risk until year end.

20. Economies of the Developed Markets - Can the festive shopping save the US, Europe & Japan ?

21. Hedge Funds - No news of any major redemption

22. Deleveraging - The IBs are probably selling into the rally.

23. Interest Rates - Thailand cut interest rates by 25 bps.

24. Headwinds - European Contagion, Weak DMs Economies, Elevated Commodity Prices, Slower EM growth, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices in HK & China, Tighter Credit Requirements

25. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Fair Equities Valuation, Cash - Sideline, Corporations & Bonds, Buybacks, Twist & QE

26. Market Direction - Stronger

It may be time to check the watchlist again. Window Dressing will begin in about one to two weeks.

As I want to be very sharp when Window Dressing begins, I have decided to take a Trading Break to conserve my energy.

This Year-End Window Dressing comes only once a year. If you missed this opportunity, you will have to wait another year to make some serious money.



The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


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