Winston's Investment Ideas 05 (May 19 - Jul 22)

[winston]

I still do not know how to value "Growth", "Momentum" or "Stupidity". If you are offended, I should apologize first. I'm just not as smart as you.

At the same time, outsize returns could come from being in some "stupid" stocks. So I should also invest in some "stupid" stocks once in a while.

And suddenly:-

1. Bitcoin is down 6%

2. Tesla is down 9%. And if you did not managed to sell your Tesla at US$900, you are now down 20%. Chamath, what happened?

3. Rock-Star Fund Manager Cathie Woods of ARK is also down big. She has 10% of her ARKK and ARKW in Tesla, so no wonder ARKW is down 6% and ARKK is down 5%.

4. Clean Energy ETF, ICLN, is down 7%. If you did not sell at the range high, you are now down 20%.

5. JD.com is down 7% in the US

6. Meituan is down 6% in HK

7. Xiomi is down 5% in HK

8. Tencent is down 4% in HK

9. AMD is down 5%

10. The A50 China ETF is down 5%

11. The Hang Seng Tech ETF (3033) is down 5%

12. CSI 300 is down 4%

13. Supermax is down 5%

[winston]

TOL @ Feb 28, 2021

Buy.jpg

Time To Nibble?

The markets have been weak for the past week and I'm starting to increase my positions.

However, if one is a strict "CANSLIM" follower, one would not be buying at this point in time. This is because 70% of the stocks do usually move in the direction of the markets.

Anyway, I'm betting that the current weakness in the markets is due to Profit-Taking and not a change in Fundamentals and that it would turn around quickly (hopefully).

The naysayers will probably say that there's actually a change in Fundamentals due to the increase in Interest Rates as well as Inflation.

As far as I'm concerned, Interest Rates are still at historical low and Inflation will not be an issue for a while.

That does not mean that the markets cannot go down further if things go sideways quickly eg. Margin Calls, Short-Selling, Panic etc.

However, I'm betting that with the "New Money From The New Month", there could be a spike upwards next week.

Thereafter, it would probably be a 'Wait & See" market.

For HK & China, it would probably be supported by the "CPPCC & SCNPC Meetings" on March 4 & 5.

For the US, it would probably be supported by the US$1.9t Stimulus on March 15.

For Malaysia, it would probably be supported by the expected OPR cut on March 4.

Having said that, I should remind myself to watch my Cash Levels. I do not have much Liquid Cash left and if the markets do crash for whatever reason, I would not have a lot of Cash to go bargain hunting again.

That does not mean that I cannot sell some of my existing holding or cash out some of my FDs before their expiry. However, it's not something that I would like to do as it's telling me that I'm out of synch with things.

"I am right and the market is wrong" always leads me to trouble.

BTW, I do keep some Cash under my wife's and kid's name so that I do not have easy access to those Cash. Knowing my own personality, I could easily go to 100% exposure to Equities, in this type of markets. I also do not want to use my Margin Accounts.

As for my Currency exposure, I have sold all of my GBP and AUD. I'm only left with SGD, MYR, HKD and USD, which is used in my Equities trading.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (34% from 26% last week from 15% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (81% from 83% from 79%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 60%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be pegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (30 from 27 from 19)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
c. Heavy Exposure to Glove Makers eg. Top Gloves, Supermax, Hartalega and Riverstone
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$61.62 from US$59.04 last week from US$59.72 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: Strong Buy
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1732 from US$1783 from US$1825;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: Strong Sell
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$26.67 from US$27.37 from US$27.44
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.10 from US$4.07 from US$3.80;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Lower. US$47,447 from US$55848 from US$47976 (@ 11.30AM on Feb 27, 2021)
a. Record: US$58354
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk-Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Neutral: 48 from 59 last week from 63 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Lower; 3811 from 3907 last week from 3935 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: Neutral
c. Will likely be buying ETFs in the US instead of Individual counters, due to not having an information edge, as well the time difference which is not conducive for trading activities.
d. Bought ARKK Disruptive Innovation ETF; RSI 34
e. Bought ICLN Global Green Energy ETF; RSI 30

2. HK Equities - Lower. 28980 from 30645 from 30174;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought HKEX
d. Bought ASM Pacific
e. Bought Kingsoft
f. Bought CICC
g. Bought Suzhou Basecare (2170)
h. Added to Hang Seng Tech ETF (3033)
i. Traded Zijin
j. Traded China Telecom
k. Traded Conch Cement
l. Sold CK Asset
m. Sold China Overseas Land

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3509 from 3696 from 3655;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 2949 from 2881 from 2925;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the tourists and business travelers returning that soon
b. Sold Jardine Matheson
c. Sold Jardine Strategic

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 28966 from 30018 from 29520;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1578 from 1599 from 1579;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Traded Destini
b. Traded Supermax
c. Sold 1/2 Hume Cement
d. Sold Malayan Cement


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Feb 27 @ 11.45 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 106.88 from 105.54 last week from 104.94 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.0397 from 3.0486 from 3.0511;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7706 from 0.7870 from 0.7759;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.2075 from 1.2122 from 1.2120;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7563 from 7.7531 from 7.7528;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. Inflow for IPOs?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.0494 from 4.0395 from 4.0426;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3322 from 1.3251 from 1.3249;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 6.4781 from 6.4856 from 6.4580;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3931 from 1.4010 from 1.3853;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 90.88 from 90.36 from 90.48;
a. Expecting the USD to weaken in the mid-term
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.41% from 1.34% last week from 1.21% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 0.13% from 0.11% from 0.11%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 108.16 from 109.30 from 109.64;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.44 from 87.50 from 87.78;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 1700 from 1770 from 1313; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[helios]

I wish I am your wife or kid so I can trade some of yours ^^ in proxy !

[winston]

I wish I am your wife or kid so I can trade some of yours ^^ in proxy !

haha

[winston]

TOL @ Mar 7, 2021

bsh.jpg

Buy or Bye?

The markets have been weak for the past two weeks and I'm starting to think that maybe I should raise some Cash for deployment later.

However, before I say "bye" to the markets, I should remind myself of the following:-

1. US Checking Accounts are at an all-time high of $4.8t, which is way above the $2.25t at the end of 2019. In 15 months, the amount of money in the US Checking Accounts has more than doubled.

2. The US jobs number from February came in hot -- twice what the economists expected. However, the US Labor force participation is still at a generational low.

3. Average US Hourly Weekly Earnings were up almost 6%, compared to the February of last year (pre-Pandemic).

4. The US 4Q Earnings has already delivered big positive surprises. Wall Street was looking for an earnings decline of 9% (compared to 4Q 2019). We're nearly through all the reports and earnings grew by 4% in the fourth quarter.

5. With this, the Wall Street earnings estimates for 2021 have been dialed UP. But these numbers will still be probably crushed.

6. For the 1Q 2021, they're looking for earnings growth of 21%. For the second quarter, growth of 50%.

In view of the above, maybe the rise in the 10 years are not too unreasonable. However, I'm still not seeing any warning signs in the following:-
1. JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) and
2. HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF)

Intuitively, I think that it's a "Trader's Market" so I'm behaving accordingly.
I'm forcing myself to buy on any "fear" and thereafter, take small profits up to the 50% retracement. I will probably be doing this type of trading for the next few weeks.

Finally, it's interesting to hear Cramer mentioned that he's raising Cash as he's expecting a correction. He also mentioned that we are only still at Stage 1 (Denial) of the "5 Stage Grief Process":-
1. Denial
2. Anger
3. Bargaining
4. Depression and
5. Acceptance


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (31% from 34% last week from 26% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 10% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (79% from 81% from 83%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 60%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be pegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (29 from 30 from 27)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
c. Heavy Exposure to Glove Makers eg. Top Gloves, Supermax, Hartalega and Riverstone
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$66.26 from US$61.62 last week from US$59.04 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: Strong Buy
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1698 from US$1732 from US$1783;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: Strong Sell
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$25.28 from US$26.67 from US$27.37
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Flat. US$4.10 from US$4.10 from US$4.07;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-Off; Lower. US$48375 from US$47,447 last week from US$55848 two weeks ago (@ 12.07 PM on March 6, 2021)
a. Record: US$58354
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 59 from 48 last week from 59 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Higher; 3842 from 3811 last week from 3907 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: Strong Sell
c. Bought ARKG (Genomic Revolution Fund); RSI 28
d. Sold ARKK Disruptive Innovation ETF

2. HK Equities - Lower. 28980 from 30645 from 30174;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought JD.com
d. Sold Kingsoft
e. Traded Zijin

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3502 from 3509 from 3696;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3014 from 2949 from 2881;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers being back soon
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 28864 from 28966 from 30018;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1600 from 1578 from 1599;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought Malayan Cement
b. Sold MAA Group
c. Traded Destini
d. Traded Supermax
e. Traded Arab Malaysian Bank


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 06 @ 2.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 108.41 from 106.88 last week from 105.54 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.0351 from 3.0397 from 3.0486;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7687 from 0.7706 from 0.7870;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1912 from 1.2075 from 1.2122;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7634 from 7.7563 from 7.7531;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.0740 from 4.0494 from 4.0395;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3423 from 1.3322 from 1.3251;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.4968 from 6.4781 from 6.4856;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3833 from 1.3931 from 1.4010;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 91.98 from 90.88 from 90.36;
a. Expecting the USD to weaken in the mid-term
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.59% from 1.41% last week from 1.34% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 0.14% from 0.13% from 0.11%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 108.20 from 108.16 from 109.30;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 86.62 from 86.44 from 87.50;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1779 from 1700 from 1770; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[winston]

TOL @ Mar 14, 2021

tech.jpeg

Time To Monitor Tech?

The tech counters have been volatile and I'm starting to force myself to look at them more closely, both in the US and HK.

I do not know whether they have found support yet but the price now is certainly better than say, 3 weeks ago.

I'm focusing on the established Big Techs, that are trading at "reasonable" valuation, instead of the smaller ones that are less liquid and not profitable yet.

At the same time, I need to remind myself that if there's a tech bust, it can last up to a year, with at least a 50% retracement.

In HK, I was trying to get some tech exposure through 3033 (Hang Seng Tech ETF) and the China Big Techs. However, they have been weak and volatile. So I need to stagger my buying.

In the US, I was trying to get some Tech exposure through the ARK ETFS eg. ARKK. ARKW, ARKF, ARKG but they are a bit too volatile for me. In addition, I'm also not too sure that Tesla has found a bottom yet (ARKK and ARKW has 10% in Tesla) and I'm also not too interested in Bitcoin unlike Cathie Woods.

So in the US, I may buy the Big Techs directly or through XLK.

I will be monitoring the RSI of the Tech counters and if they do touch 30, I may want to start thinking about having an initial position.

Besides Big Techs in the US and HK, I'm also keeping an eye on the overall HK and China market.

The HSI has lost about 2000 points in the past few weeks. There could be some interesting Value stocks there, especially when Covid19 is probably under control there.

The A Shares have also being weak and I'm also watching the A50 ETF (2822) and the CSI 300 (3188).

For next week, we have the following:-
1. Mar 16 & 17: US Fed Meeting; Not expecting much unless Powell stumbles
2. Mar 18 & 19: US & China meeting in Alaska; Not expecting much


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (27% from 31% last week from 34% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (80% from 79% from 81%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 60%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be pegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (26 from 29 from 30)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
c. Heavy exposure to Glove Makers eg. Top Gloves, Supermax, Hartalega and Riverstone
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Risk-On (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$65.57 from US$66.26 last week from US$61.62 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: Strong Buy
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1726 from US$1698 from US$1732;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: Strong Sell
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$26.01 from US$25.28 from US$26.67
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.15 from US$4.10 from US$4.10;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Lower. US$57503 from US$48375 last week from US$47,447 two weeks ago (@ 6.00 PM on March 13, 2021)
a. Record: US$58354
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 59 from 59 last week from 48 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Higher; 3943 from 3842 last week from 3811 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: Strong Buy
c. Sold ARKG (Genomic Revolution Fund)

2. HK Equities - Lower. 28740 from 28980 from 30645;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Sold JD.com
d. Traded Zijin

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3453 from 3502 from 3509;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3095 from 3014 from 2949;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers being back soon
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 29718 from 28864 from 28966;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1600 from 1578 from 1599;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Bought Sarawak Oil Palm
b. Sold Malayan Cement
c. Sold Hume Cement
d. Traded Supermax


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Mar 12 @ 10.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 109.07 from 108.41 last week from 106.88 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0594 from 3.0351 from 3.0397;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7745 from 0.7687 from 0.7706;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.1932 from 1.1912 from 1.2075;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Flat. 7.7635 from 7.7634 from 7.7563;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1170 from 4.0740 from 4.0494;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3461 from 1.3423 from 1.3322;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.5037 from 6.4968 from 6.4781;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3888 from 1.3833 from 1.3931;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 91.82 from 91.98 from 90.88;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.61% from 1.59% last week from 1.41% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Higher; 0.15% from 0.14% from 0.13%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.26 from 108.20 from 108.16;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 86.70 from 86.62 from 86.44;l

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 1970 from 1779 from 1700; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[winston]

TOL @ Mar 21, 2021

waiting.jpg

Waiting and Watching

Nothing much has changed since last week:-
1. The 10 years have been rising slowly
2. The Tech stocks are still weak
3. The USD is relatively weak
4. The Chinese markets are still weak
etc.

In this type of markets, I would prefer to "wait and see" instead of making any bets unless there's a convincing story.

I'm still watching:-
1. The China Markets: A50 (2822) and CSI300 (3188)
2. Big Techs: GOOG, AAPL, MSFT, Tencent, Alibaba; I already have a position in JD.com ( for the IPO of JD Logistics), ASM Pacific (exposure to semiconductors industry) as well as 3033 (Hang Seng Tech Index).
3. USD: It has been strong lately so it may be the time to convert it to another currency.
4. Momentum Stocks: ARK ETFs; When will Bitcoin, TSLA and other illiquid money-losing tech counters collapse?

Anyway, the consensus view is that the 10 years may reach around 2.20% by the end of the year. That's about a 0.5% move from here. I dont think it's the end of the world but the markets is still continuing to switch from the "Momentum" plays.

I'm more worried about "Stagflation" than "Inflation". Everyone seems to think that the vaccines will be able to save the global economy and that we would be able to fly again by Autumn 2021. So what happens if that's not the case?

I'm seeing the SMEs closing left, right and centre. At the same time, the cost of foodstuff, medicine etc have gone up in price. And people are lining up to get into Louia Vuitton, Chanel etc. (it took me about 30 minutes to get into Chanel yesterday). Something is not right somewhere. Maybe it's the revenge spending ..

For next week, I dont think that there's not much happening. So it would be be the same old, same old.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (29% from 27% last week from 31% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Worse (82% from 80% from 79%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 60%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be pegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Worse (27 from 26 from 29)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$61.46 from US$65.57 last week from US$66.26 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: Sell
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Higher. US$1744 from US$1726 from US$1698;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: Neutral
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Higher. US$26.33 from US$26.01 from US$25.28
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.10 from US$4.15 from US$4.10;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237

Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$58517 from US$57503 last week from US$48375 two weeks ago (@ 12.20 PM on March 20, 2021)
a. Record: US$58354
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170

Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Greed: 61 from 59 last week from 59 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Lower; 3913 from 3943 last week from 3842 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: Strong Buy
c. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher. 28991 from 28740 from 28980;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought JD.com

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3405 from 3453 from 3502;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3135 from 3095 from 3014;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers being back soon
b. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 29792 from 29718 from 28864;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1626 from 1600 from 1578;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Traded Destini
b. Sold 3/4 Supermax


Currencies: Risk-On (Data from XE.com on Mar 19 @ 3.20 PM)


1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 108.80 from 109.07 last week from 108.41 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0678 from 3.0594 from 3.0351;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.7762 from 0.7745 from 0.7687;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat. 1.1927 from 1.1932 from 1.1912;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7667 from 7.7635 from 7.7634;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat. 4.1160 from 4.1170 from 4.0740;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.3417 from 1.3461 from 1.3423 ;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.5059 from 6.5037 from 6.4968;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Stronger; 1.3939 from 1.3888 from 1.3833;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 91.77 from 91.82 from 91.98;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 1.73% from 1.61% last week from 1.59% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year Treasuries - Lower; 0.15% from 0.15% from 0.14%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 107.56 from 108.26 from 108.20;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Lower; 86.06 from 86.70 from 86.62;

Baltic Dry Index - Higher; 2215 from 1970 from 1779; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
search.php?search_id=active_topics

Support The Forum - If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum. The bottom is at the top right hand corner.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

[investar]

TOL @ Mar 21, 2021

Waiting and Watching


Anyway, the consensus view is that the 10 years may reach around 2.20% by the end of the year. That's about a 0.5% move from here. I dont think it's the end of the world but the markets is still continuing to switch from the "Momentum" plays.

I'm more worried about "Stagflation" than "Inflation". Everyone seems to think that the vaccines will be able to save the global economy and that we would be able to fly again by Autumn 2021. So what happens if that's not the case?

I'm seeing the SMEs closing left, right and centre. At the same time, the cost of foodstuff, medicine etc have gone up in price. And people are lining up to get into LV, Channel etc. (it took me about 30 minutes to get into Channel yesterday). Something is not right somewhere. Maybe it's the revenge spending ..

The consensus view for the 10y was 1.5% at the end of this year, just a few weeks ago. Consensus views (and the changes in them!) are very useful for individual stocks, but not really for things like the 10y. The likelihood of 1.5 at the end of this year still seems higher than 2.2 to me. Increased inflation expectations are the main cause of the rising rates. And there is indeed some evidence of inflation, especially in commodity prices. All this may not necessarily be negative for stock markets overall, but could have significant implications for stock market leadership.

3rd wave is here in many countries... but the "consensus view" seems to be that this is the last wave? Because (and only speaking for developed markets and countries here) the risk group will be vaccinated by the end of this summer?

What is Channel, LV etc?

[winston]

The consensus view for the 10y was 1.5% at the end of this year, just a few weeks ago. Consensus views (and the changes in them!) are very useful for individual stocks, but not really for things like the 10y. The likelihood of 1.5 at the end of this year still seems higher.

It would be great if it's 1.5%. But even at 2.2%, it would not be the end of the world. But the Tech counters are behaving badly. Not sure that it's a buying opportunity yet. I need to see the long "W" or "Triple Bottom" first.

3rd wave is here in many countries... but the "consensus view" seems to be that this is the last wave? Because (and only speaking for developed markets and countries here) the risk group will be vaccinated by the end of this summer?

Hoped that this is the last wave. Summer is just around the corner. If it drags to Autumn, then there would be the new Winter Flu strain again.

What is Channel, LV etc?

Haha, Typo. Chanel and Louis Vuitton.

[winston]

b] TOL @ Mar 27, 2021[/b]

same old.jpg

Same Old, Same Old

From mid-February through yesterday, the Dow climbed 3%, the S&P lost 1% and the Nasdaq is down nearly 9%.

The headlines have been attributing this weakness to rising interest rates and the fear of inflation.

The questions on the minds of investors now are "how long will this continue?" and "how bad will it get?".

As it stands, some "experts" are quite bearish on the US markets and they think that the selling is not over. They think that there are bigger forces at play and the current weakness is not just quarter-end rebalancing.

As for myself, it looks like a "Water Torture". Drip, drip and if you are not careful, suddenly, you are down another 10%. Not to mentioned that May is just around the corner.

Therefore, I'm forcing myself to stagger my buying unless there's a very convincing story. Cheap can become cheaper and I want to have some Cash to buy when people are panicking.

I'm still monitoring the following areas that I mentioned last week:-
1. US Big Tech: GOOG, AAPL, MSFT; Bought Coupang
2. HK Big Tech: Tencent; Bought Alibaba
3. A Shares: A50 and CSI 300

The ARK Funds also looks tempting but I think that it would continue to be weak eg. Tesla, Bitcoin, Teladoc, etc.

Even my Clean Energy ETF (ICLN) is weak despite Biden's coming US$3t Infrastructure Program. Maybe it's because of the drop in PLUG, which is 9% of the fund.

So before buying any ETF, it's necessary to see what are their top 10 holdings.

Anyway, there's nothing much happening next week so I think that it would be another uneventful week.

So it's probably time to have coffee with friends, go out to see the Tacoma Trees and head out to the Driving Range.


Weekly Risk Management Progress Report:-

1. To Monitor NET Exposure To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Neutral (29% from 29% last week from 27% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 15% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify From Asian Equities: Progress (81% from 82% from 80%)
Goal: To reduce the percentage of Asian Equities to around 70%

3. To Buy Inverse ETFs and Puts before the next crash:-
Current Position:-
a. TZA (Inverse Russell 3x)
b. SOXS (Inverse Semiconductor 3x)
Goal: To have a sizable short position going into the next crash / recession

4. To Increase "USD/HKD/Gold/Silver" - Progress (26% from 25% from 26%).
Goal: To be in the safe havens before next recession; (HKD may be pegged)

5. To Reduce Number Of Counters: Progress (26 from 27 from 26)
Goal: To focus on maximum 16 counters from 4 countries at any one time.

6. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

7. To diversify from "Value" into "Momentum" stocks
Goal: Exposure to 25% Value Stocks only


Commodities: Risk-Off (Data from Commodities Live every Saturday)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$60.73 from US$61.46 last week from US$65.57 two weeks ago;
Support: US$29; Resistance: US$77 (2018);
a. Daily Technical: Sell
b. Demand is down about 15%?
c. Supply is up by about 15%?
d. Crude glut until 4Q 2021?
e. Will Biden regulate the Fracking Industry to death?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=9249&p=231235#p231235

2. Gold - Lower. US$1731 from US$1744 from US$1726;
Support: 1700; 1490; 1240; 1050; Resistance: 1890; 1950: 2015; 2070;
a. Daily Technical: Neutral
b. They cant print gold
c. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
d. If Bitcoin is moving on Liquidity, shouldn't Gold be also moving on that same Liquidity too?
e. Vested in Gold Coins, GDX and GDXJ
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=8845&p=231236#p231236

3. Silver - Lower. US$25.11 from US$26.33 from US$26.01
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio
b. Industrial Demand
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=10086&start=80

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.08 from US$4.10 from US$4.15;
a. Is the Global Economy doing that great?
viewtopic.php?f=33&t=5598&p=231237#p231237


Bitcoin: Risk-On; Higher. US$54570 from US$58517 last week from US$57503 two weeks ago (@ 7.40 PM on March 27, 2021)
a. Record: US$61361
b. No US Listed Bitcoin ETF yet
c. GBTC is a Closed End Fund; L 31 (Support); H 57 (Resistance)
d. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$5000 to US$8500
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=6175&start=170


Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday every week)

CNN Fear & Greed Index: Neutral: 52 from 61 last week from 59 two weeks ago;

1. US Equities - Higher; 3975 from 3913 last week from 3943 two weeks ago;
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=7643&start=200
a. Support: 3270; 2237 (Mar 2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 4300
b. Daily S&P 500 Technical: Neutral
c. Bought Coupang (CPNG). IPO US$35
viewtopic.php?f=55&t=10324

2. HK Equities - Lower. 28336 from 28991 from 28740;
htttp:/investideas.net/forum/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7470&start=120
a. Support: 24050; 22000; 21600; 19500; 16800
b. Resistance: 31600;
c. Bought Alibaba
d. Traded Smoore
e. Sold JD.com
f. Sold CICC

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3418 from 3405 from 3453;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7190&start=210
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Elevated; Will not chase despite their reopening story

4. Spore Equities - Higher; 3158 from 3135 from 3095;
Resistance 3850
a. I do not see the Tourists and Business Travelers being back soon
b. Sold Manulife US Reit

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 29177 from 29792 from 29718;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7138&start=200
a. Support 15575 (2016); Resistance 30715
b. BOJ owns > Half government bonds and 75% of ETFs
c. Breakeven on BOJ's ETF at 19,500
d. Will not be chasing at this level

6. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1601 from 1626 from 1600;
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=6292&start=30
a. Traded Destini


Currencies: Risk-Off (Data from XE.com on Mar 27 @ 8.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 109.62 from 108.80 last week from 109.07 two weeks ago;
a. 52 week range is 76 to 126
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Unlimited QE
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=4205&start=180

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.0810 from 3.0678 from 3.0594;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the Recession?
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.7631 from 0.7762 from 0.7745;
a. The range is 0.70 (2016) to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
c. How will China further retaliate against Australia?
d. Stronger than expected but I wont be investing in any Australian assets anymore
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5256&start=130

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.1772 from 1.1927 from 1.1932;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=5523&start=100

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7694 from 7.7667 from 7.7635;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
c. No hot IPO
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=3529&start=40

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker. 4.1465 from 4.1160 from 4.1170;
a. 52 Week Range is 3.27 to 4.54
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=397&start=9

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.3459 from 1.3417 from 1.3461 ;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Am uncomfortable holding the currency of a small country where a catastrophe can wipe them out
c. But Singapore has been managing it's finances well.
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=136&start=100

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 6.5416 from 6.5059 from 6.5037;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7720&start=90

9. GBP to USD:- GBP Weaker; 1.3791 from 1.3939 from 1.3888;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=333&start=80

10. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 92.77 from 91.77 from 91.82;
viewtopic.php?f=32&t=7616&start=60


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. Cap of 40% for loans to Developers by banks
b. Cap of 32.5% for mortgage loans by banks
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=8150&start=140

2. HK Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7785&start=150

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7750&start=210

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. How much will it drop and for how long?
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=4220&start=200


Others

Market Sentiment - Complacent
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9099&start=90

Headwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8930&p=231225#p231225

Tailwinds:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=8940&p=231226#p231226

Warning Signs:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=9909&p=231227#p231227

Risk Management:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7547&p=231228#p231228

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 1.67% from 1.73% last week from 1.61% two weeks ago

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 0.14$ from 0.15% from 0.15%

Interest Rates:-
viewtopic.php?f=16&t=7319&p=221670#p221670

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 108.51 from 107.56 from 108.26;

HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF) - Higher; 86.92 from 86.06 from 86.70;

Baltic Dry Index - Lower; 2178 from 2215 from 1970; Low 290; High 2330 (2013)

Covid19 Notes:-
viewtopic.php?f=25&t=5657&start=150

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
viewtopic.php?f=11&t=9039&start=50

Risks Out There:-
posting.php?mode=reply&f=16&t=8930


Please Note:-

The above is to from help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

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