Winston's Investment Ideas 03 (Jul 12 - Sep 15)

[winston]

TOL as of Jan 26, 2014



Happy Year of the Horse !

It's going to be a new lunar year soon. And what would the year of the horse brings ?

Would it be galloping away as in previous years ? Or would it be an injured horse ?

The market actions in the US and Latin America does not looked promising.

Maybe this is a buying opportunity unless this dip has a bit longer to go.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$96.90 from US$92.89 last week from US$94.17 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1269 from US$1249 last week from US$1236 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$19.90 from US$20.16 last week from US$20.13 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.26 from US$3.34 last week from US$3.35 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1790 from 1839 last week from 1842 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22450 from 23133 last week from 22846 the previous week. No trade.

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2054 from 2005 last week from 2013 the previous week

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3076 from 3147 last week from 3144 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 15392 from 15734 last week from 15912 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 102.29 from 104.30 last week from 104.13 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.6064 from 2.5849 last week from 2.5857 the previous week. Vested. Am surprised that the MYR is so weak. Traditionally, the MYR is strong at this period because the Msian workers are changing their SGD into MYR.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.8688 from 0.8781 last week from 0.8995 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1109 from 1.1201 last week from 1.1371 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Flat. 2.8954 from 2.8953 last week from 2.9401 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3678 from 1.3541 last week from 1.3667 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7631 from 7.7553 last week from 7.7544 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Weaker. 80.46 from 81.18 last week from 80.87 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Higher. 3.91% from 3.82% last week from 3.92% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 3.80% from 3.71% last week from 3.81% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.72% from 2.82% last week from 2.86% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Mixed

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Would you be buying on this dip ?

5. Spore Properties - A bit of drop. What happens if there's a big drop ?

6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction - Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 02, 2014:-



Buying the dip ?

Now that the dip is here, it is time to buy ?

Or is it time to sell into the technical rebound ?

The US$10b tapering is not really a big deal but the outflows in anticipation of the tapering is a big deal.

Can Weak Earnings, Weak Growth and Rising Interest Rates, be the next catalysts to bring things down further ?


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk-Off

1. Oil - Higher. US$97.46 from US$96.90 last week from US$92.89 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1244 from US$1269 last week from US$1249 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$19.14 from US$19.90 last week from US$20.16 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.19 from US$3.26 last week from US$3.34 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1790 from 1839 last week from 1842 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22450 from 23133 last week from 22846 the previous week. Bought Std Chartered and China Resources Enterprise

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2054 from 2005 last week from 2013 the previous week. Bought A50 listed in HK.

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3076 from 3147 last week from 3144 the previous week. Sold Suntec Reit. Bought RH Petrogas

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 15392 from 15734 last week from 15912 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 102.10 from 102.29 last week from 104.30 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.6212 from 2.6064 last week from 2.5849 the previous week. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.8754 from 0.8688 last week from 0.8781 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1176 from 1.1109 last week from 1.1201 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.9294 from 2.8954 last week from 2.8953 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3489 from 1.3678 last week from 1.3541 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7639 from 7.7631 last week from 7.7553 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Stronger. 81.25 from 80.46 last week from 81.18 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 3.77% from 3.91% last week from 3.82% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 3.66% from 3.80% last week from 3.71% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.64% from 2.72% last week from 2.82% the previous week.

4. The Reserve Bank of India raised its repo rate by 25 basis points to 8.00 percent from 7.75 percent.

5. The Monetary Policy Committee of the South Africa Reserve Bank raised the repurchase rate by 50 basis points to 5.5 percent.

6. Turkey's central bank doubled the one-week repo rate to 10 percent from 4.5 percent, the central bank,


Others

1. Sentiment - Mixed

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Are u buying on the dip or trying to sell into the rebound ?

5. Spore Properties - A bit of drop
6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction - Lower


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 09, 2014:-

What Crash ?



Just last week, the "experts" on TV were asking you to sell.

And they have these stories on an Emerging Markets Contagtiion to frighten you.

It's was if Argentina was the same as Turkey as Indonesia as China.

Which makes me wonder whether these "experts" have really being to these places in the first place.

Anyway, the US market is higher week-on-week and I'm very glad that I went shopping.

Now the question is "when is the time to sell ?".


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$100.14 from US$97.46 last week from US$96.90 the previous week.

2. Gold - Flat. US$1267 from US$1269 last week from US$1249 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$19.98 from US$19.90 last week from US$20.16 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.25 from US$3.26 last week from US$3.34 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 1797 from 1790 last week from 1839 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21637 from 22450 last week from 23133 the previous week. Bought Std Chartered, Petrochina, China Shenghua and Lenovo

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2045 from 2054 last week from 2005 the previous week. Added to A50

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3013 from 3076 last week from 3147 the previous week. Bought RH Petrogas & Keppel Reit

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14462 from 15392 last week from 15734 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat. 102.32 from 102.29 last week from 104.30 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.6262 from 2.6064 last week from 2.5849 the previous week. Vested. Am surprised that the MYR is so weak. Traditionally, the MYR is strong at this period because the Msian workers are changing their SGD into MYR.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.8960 from 0.8688 last week from 0.8781 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1362 from 1.1109 last week from 1.1201 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.984 from 2.8954 last week from 2.8953 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3634 from 1.3678 last week from 1.3541 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7587 from 7.7631 last week from 7.7553 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Stronger. 80.67 from 80.46 last week from 81.18 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Lowr

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 3.69% from 3.91% last week from 3.82% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 3.59% from 3.80% last week from 3.71% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.69% from 2.72% last week from 2.82% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Confused

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates, Tapering, Syria, China Slowdown, Emerging market Contagion

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Asset Allocation, Position Sizing and Trailing Stop Losses. What else is there to manage risk ?

5. Properties - Small drop in Spore & HK. When is the big drop ?

6. Short-Selling & Buying Puts - No set-up

7. US Market Direction - Higher


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments


Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 09, 2014:-

What Crash ?



Just last week, the "experts" on TV were asking you to sell.

And they have these stories on an Emerging Markets Contagtiion to frighten you.

It's was if Argentina was the same as Turkey as Indonesia as China.

Which makes me wonder whether these "experts" have really being to these places in the first place.

Anyway, the US market is higher week-on-week and I'm very glad that I went shopping.

Now the question is "when is the time to sell ?".

I had a gut instinct that the above picture was correct.

And everyone now on CNBC is smiling and joking.

And some "experts" are even saying that this rally has legs.

I have put in the trailing stop losses to protect the profits.

I'm a bit uncomfortable when the US market has now recovered 3/4 of their recent sell-off.

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 16, 2014:-



Being a Contrarian

Now that the market has rebounded and gold is heading upwards, I'm feeling a bit uncomfortable.

I have already sold some shares. Should I sell the rest ?

If not, what Trailing Stop Loss should I put in ?

Nothing has changed from a few weeks ago so why should the market go from one extreme to another ?

Time to remind myself of the Contrarian Chart above.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$100.40 from US$100.14 last week from US$97.46 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1319 from US$1267 last week from US$1269 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$21.48 from US$19.98 last week from US$19.90 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Flat. US$3.26 from US$3.25 last week from US$3.26 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1839 from 1797 last week from 1790 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22298 from 21637 last week from 22450 the previous week. Sold Petrochina and China Shenghua

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2045 from 2054 last week from 2005 the previous week. No Trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3013 from 3076 last week from 3147 the previous week. No Trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14462 from 15392 last week from 15734 the previous week.


Currencies - Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 101.81 from 102.32 last week from 102.29 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.6248 from 2.6262 last week from 2.6064 the previous week. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9034 from 0.8960 last week from 0.8688 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1376 from 1.1362 last week from 1.1109 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.9859 from 2.9840 last week from 2.8954 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3695 from 1.3634 last week from 1.3678 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7553 from 7.7587 last week from 7.7631 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Weaker. 80.14 from 80.67 last week from 80.46 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat. 3.69% from 3.69% last week from 3.91% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Flat. 3.59% from 3.59% last week from 3.80% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.74% from 2.69% last week from 2.72% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Mixed

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Time to tightened the Trailing Stop losses

5. SG Properties - DBS Head expects a 10% to 15% drop


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Feb 23, 2014:-



Market Direction

So where's the market heading now after the technical rebound ?

Will it be grinding higher in view of the low interest rates and improving economies ?

Or would it be heading lower because of Tapering, Slow-down in China and the EM contagion ?

Most of the experienced investors that are I know are staying away from the market.

Maybe that's a sign that this will be a trading or range-bound market.

Therefore, I should behave accordingly ie. buy when there's fear and sell on the technical rebound.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Risk-On

1. Oil - Higher. US$102.30 from US$100.40 last week from US$100.14 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1326 from US$1319 last week from US$1267 he previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$21.84 from US$21.48 last week from US$19.98 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Higher. US$3.29 from US$3.26 last week from US$3.25 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1839 from 1797 last week from 1790 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22568 from 22298 last week from 21637 the previous week. Sold China Silver, Zijin, 1/3 Zhaojin and 1/2 Std Chartered

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2114 from 2045 last week from 2054 the previous week. Sold 1/2 A50

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3100 from 3013 last week from 3076 the previous week. Bought Global Investments. Sold JMH and Soilbuild Reit

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 14866 from 14313 from 14462 the previous week.


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 102.53 from 101.81 last week from 102.32 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5993 from 2.6248 last week from 2.6262 the previous week. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.8973 from 0.9034 last week from 0.8960 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Flat. 1.1375 from 1.1376 last week from 1.1362 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.9566 from 2.9859 last week from 2.9840 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3738 from 1.3695 last week from 1.3634 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7557 from 7.7553 last week from 7.7587 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Stronger. 80.24 from 80.14 last week from 80.67 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 3.60% from 3.69% last week from 3.69% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 3.55% from 3.59% last week from 3.59% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.73% from 2.74% last week from 2.69% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Anxiety

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Raising cash on the Technical Rebound

5. SG Properties - Dripping lower

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 02, 2014:-



Happy New Month !

It's a new month and new money will be flowing into the market again

And suddenly the Emerging Markets are not crashing and the S&P are touching new highs ..

Market Sentiment has been cautious and I still think that it's a trading market.

Inview of the above, I'm starting to move money into some smaller companies as I think that the Blue Chips have had their day already.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Higher. US$102.76 from US$102.30 last week from US$100.40 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1329 from US$1326 last week from US$1319 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$21.22 from US$21.84 last week from US$21.48 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.23 from US$3.29 last week from US$3.26 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1859 from 1839 last week from 1797 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Higher. 22837 from 22568 last week from 22298 the previous week. Buy Shimao. Added to Zhaojin and China Resources Enterprise

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2056 from 2114 last week from 2045 the previous week. Added to A50

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3111 from 3100 last week from 3013 the previous week. Added to RH Petrogas

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14841 from 14866 last week from 14313 the previous week.

6. Malaysian Equities - Added to Menang


Currencies - Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 101.80 from 102.53 last week from 101.81 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5848 from 2.5993 last week from 2.6248 the previous week. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.8927 from 0.8973 last week from 0.9034 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1317 from 1.1375 last week from 1.1376 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Weaker. 2.9251 from 2.9566 last week from 2.9859 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3803 from 1.3738 last week from 1.3695 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7605 from 7.7557 last week from 7.7553 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Weaker. 79.78 from 80.24 last week from 80.14 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 3.48% from 3.60% last week from 3.69% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 3.51% from 3.55% last week from 3.59% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.65% from 2.73% last week from 2.74% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment - Cautious

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Are you still thinking of the financial tsunami of 2006 ? That was 7 years ago !

5. Properties - What would be the catalyst that will drive prices significantly lower ?


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 09, 2014:-

New High



Now that most markets are trading at multi-year highs, where do we go from here ?

And for how many years have those perma-bears, been saying that the sky would be falling ?

Dont they conveniently appear on CNBC whenver there's a dip and fade away when the market continue it's grind higher ?

As for myself, I still think that it's a trading market so I will continue to buy on any panic and sell on the technical rebound.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Flat. US$102.69 from US$102.76 last week from US$102.30 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1340 from US$1329 last week from US$1326 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$20.88 from US$21.22 last week from US$21.84 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$3.08 from US$3.23 last week from US$3.29 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk On

1. US Equities - Higher. 1878 from 1859 last week from 1839 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 22660 from 22837 last week from 22568 the previous week. Buy Fast Retailing. Sold and bought back Zhaojin

3. Shanghai Equities - Flat. 2058 from 2056 last week from 2114 the previous week. No trade

4. Spore Equities - Higher. 3136 from 3111 last week from 3100 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Higher. 15274 from 14841 last week from 14866 the previous week.

6. Malaysian Equities - Added to Menang


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 103.30 from 101.80 last week from 102.53 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Stronger. 2.5680 from 2.5848 last week from 2.5993 the previous week. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9069 from 0.8927 last week from 0.8973 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1506 from 1.1317 last week from 1.1375 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.9548 from 2.9251 last week from 2.9566 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3875 from 1.3803 last week from 1.3738 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7609 from 7.7605 last week from 7.7557 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Weaker. 79.70 from 79.78 last week from 80.24 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Higher

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 3.42% from 3.48% last week from 3.60% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 3.36% from 3.51% last week from 3.55% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.79% from 2.65% last week from 2.73% the previous week.


Others

1. Sentiment -Confused

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - Checking the trailing Stops. Should I increase it to 15% from 8% ?

5. Properties - Dropping slowly


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 16, 2014:-

Anxiety




Can you feel the anxiety in the air ?

It's as if the sky is falling.

Has anything really change from 3 weeks ago ?

Do you really think that Ukraine can bring down the world ?

Do you really think that Yellen will continue with the tapering if the US economy is not strong ?

Do you really know what you are doing ?


The week in review:-


Commodities - Mixed

1. Oil - Lower. US$99.00 from $102.69 last week from US$102.76 the previous week.

2. Gold - Higher. US$1382 from US$1340 last week from US$1329 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Higher. US$21.46 from US$20.88 last week from US$21.22 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Lower. US$2.94 from US$3.08 last week from US$3.23 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Lower. 1841 from 1878 last week from 1859 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21539 from 22660 last week from 22837 the previous week. Bought Poly Culture, China Shenghua, China Silver, China Resources Enterprise. Traded Zhaojin

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower. 2004 from 2058 last week from 2056 the previous week. No trade

4. Spore Equities - Lower. 3074 from 3136 last week from 3111 the previous week. No trade

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14328 from 15274 last week from 14841 the previous week.

6. Malaysian Equities - Added to Menang again


Currencies- Mixed

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger. 101.36 from 103.30 last week from 101.80 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5919 from 2.5680 last week from 2.5848 the previous week. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker. 0.9030 from 0.9069 last week from 0.8927 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Weaker. 1.1426 from 1.1506 last week from 1.1317 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 2.9614 from 2.9548 last week from 2.9251 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger. 1.3911 from 1.3875 last week from 1.3803 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker. 7.7672 from 7.7609 last week from 7.7605 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - Weaker. 79.41 from 79.70 last week from 79.78 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Lower

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Lower. 3.41% from 3.42% last week from 3.48% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Lower. 3.34% from 3.36% last week from 3.51% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower. 2.65% from 2.79% last week from 2.65% the previous week.

4. Thailand cut interest rate by 25 bps

5. Chile cuts interest rate for fourth time in six months to 4% from 4.25%


Others

1. Sentiment -Confused

2. Headwinds - Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - What would you be doing if the market dips 15% ?

5. Properties - HK is starting to drop


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

[winston]

TOL as of Mar 23, 2014:-

tired-of-writing.gif

Tired

Are you a bit tired from trading this market ?

Just when you thought that it was going up, it dropped.

And when you thought that it was going to drop, it rises.

Looks like it's still a trading market.

But one will need to be very sharp and alert in this type of market.

Maybe it's time to take a trading break.


The week in review:-

Commodities - Ris

1. Oil - Higher. US$99.55 from US$99.00 last week from $102.69 US$102.76 the previous week.

2. Gold - Lower. US$1335 from US$1382 last week from US$1340 the previous week. Record US$1920. Vested.

3. Silver - Lower. US$20.28 from US$21.46 last week from US$20.88 the previous week. Range High: 49.50;

4. Copper - Flat. US$2.95 from US$2.94 last week from US$3.08 the previous week.

5. Is it time to look at Commodities ? It's hated, relatively cheap and maybe on an uptrend


Equities - Risk Off

1. US Equities - Higher. 1867 from 1841 last week from 1878 the previous week.

2. HK Equities - Lower. 21437 from 21539 last week from 22660 the previous week. Sold Lenovo; Bought Zhaojin

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher. 2048 from 2004 last week from 2058 the previous week. No trade

4. Spore Equities - Flat. 3073 from 3074 last week from 3136 the previous week. Sold RH Petrogas

5. Japan Equities - Lower. 14224 from 14328 last week from 15274 the previous week.

6. Malaysian Equities - Added to Menang; Big drop from RM 1.02 to RM 0.85


Currencies- Risk-On

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker. 102.25 from 101.36 last week from 103.30 the previous week. The 52 week range is 75.62 to 105.18

2. SGD to MYR - MYR Weaker. 2.5963 from 2.5919 last week from 2.5680 the previous week. Vested.

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger. 0.9081 from 0.9030 last week from 0.9069 the previous week

4. AUD to SGD - AUD Stronger. 1.1572 from 1.1426 last week from 1.1506 the previous week; H 1.36; L 1.11; Vested

5. AUD to MYR - AUD Stronger. 3.0044 from 2.9614 last week from 2.9548 the previous week

6. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker. 1.3794 from 1.3911 last week from 1.3875 the previous week

7. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger. 7.7581 from 7.7672 last week from 7.7609 the previous week. 52 week range is 7.7495 - 7.7978. Vested

8. Dollar Index - USD Stronger. 80.11 from 79.41 last week from 79.70 the previous week.


Interest Rates- Risk-Off

1. Yield on 10 Year Italian Bonds - Flat. 3.41% from 3.41% last week from 3.42% the previous week; Record 7.483%.

2. Yield on 10 Year Spanish Bonds - Higher. 3.36% from 3.34% last week from 3.36% the previous week. Line in the sand at 7.5% ?

3. Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher. 2.74% from 2.65% last week from 2.79% the previous week.

4. Thailand cut interest rate by 25 bps

5. Chile cuts interest rate for fourth time in six months to 4% from 4.25%



Others

1. Sentiment -Confused

2. Headwinds - European Contagion, Deleveraging, Lower Margins, Weaker Earnings, Falling Property Prices, Downgrades by Rating Agencies, Austerity Programs, Iran, Demographics, Debt Ceiling Debates; Tapering, Syria, Ukraine, China Slowdown

3. Tailwinds - Low Interest Rates, EM Consumption, EM Demographics, Cash on Sideline, Cash in Corporations for M&A, Cash in short-term Bonds, Buybacks, Money-Printing, US Housing Recovery, China Recovery, Great Rotation

4. Risk Management - How's your confidence level ?

5. Properties - Dropping in HK


The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. Use the above comments at your own risk and please do also feel free to provide me with your kind thoughts and comments

Please Note:-

Support the forum button- If you have benefited from the ideas in the forum but have not participated in the discussions, we would appreciate your kind support to defray the expenses of maintaining the forum.

Private Messages ( PM ) - Please do check your Inbox for any PMs. The Inbox is located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.

Second Opinion - Please see the "Second Opinion" thread in the "Services for InvestIdeas Members" section, located just below the Miscellaneous Section.

Active Topics - Do you know that there's an "Active Topics" button? It's located on the top left hand corner of the Index Page.