Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL @ Jul 20, 2025

Trading Break.jpg

Exhausted and Numb = Trading Break

I'm actually quite exhausted trying to keep up with the antics of the Administration since April, so it's a good time to take a trading break especially when the markets are trading at an elevated level.

Anyway, I recalled reading somewhere that when a trader's mental efficiency drops to < 90%, he will start to lose money. A trading break would also allow me to see the market factors in a better perspective.

The following are my comments on the various markets this week:-

1. Japan: Waiting for the Japanese Election. Japanese market is stronger than expected. They are currently trying to sort out the 25% tariff especially on Cars, Steel and Aluminium as well as the Rice Subsidy.

2. US: Earnings Season. Powell's Exit; US Un-Exceptionalism; Big Bad Bill; Epstein Files; US markets stronger than expected. The "technical experts" are now saying that the markets will weaken after July 28th. I see a US Stagflation and am reducing my US Equities exposure as it has recovered all it's losses from April

3. HK: Stronger than expected and at "3 Year High". Most of the rise has been outside the Big Techs this time. I see another two more years of economic slowdown in HK & China and I'm reducing my HK & China exposure since it has recovered all it's losses from April

4. Malaysia: The Banks were quite weak and I have been adding to my exposure to the Banks. I do understand that the foreigners could be reducing their exposure to the Malaysian Banks, that NPLs could be rising and the NIM could be shrinking. However, I'm betting that the banks are now at a reasonable valuation and since they could continue to pay a good yield, I'm using some of my Malaysian Cash to buy some of the Malaysian Banks.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. July 21st: Malaysia - Cost-Of Living Assistance Program
2. US: Ingoing Earnings Season
3. Various Tariffs Announcement
4. China: Politburo Meeting; Additional Stimulus?
5. Jul 26: Malaysia - Anti-Anwar Rally
6. Jul 29 & 30; FOMC Meeting; Non-Event even if they reduce by 25 bps
7. Jul 31: 13th Malaysian Plan

As mentioned, I'm exhausted and numb so it's a good time to reduce my trading activities especially when the markets are "elevated". I will not be chasing any short term opportunity unless there's a crash in the markets.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Flat; (38% from 38% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 31% (7 Counters); ADR Relisting?
c. US: 27% (10 Counters); Stagflation?
d. Malaysia: 42% (15 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too big nor concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country should be adequate for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to Malaysian Banks
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Jul 19, 2025 @ 9.08 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$67 from US$68 last week from US$66 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$3358 from US$3364 from US$3347;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks' holdings is about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will the sale of "Used Gold" be more than Central Banks' demand?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Vested in GLD
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$38 from US$39 from US$37;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Vested in SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Flat. US$5.60 from US$5.60 from US$5.06;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$72 from US$72 from US$77;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$117,727 from US$117,383 last week from US$108163 two weeks ago @ 9.09 AM on Jul 19, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Flat; "75 Extreme Greed" from "75 Extreme Greed" last week from "78 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 6297 from 6260 last week from 6279 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5700; 5500; 5120; 4980; 4830; 4125; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: Fwd PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Sold SLV (Silver ETF)

2. HK Equities - Higher; 24813 from 24172 from 23916;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24750 (Mar 2025); 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Bought PopMart (9992)
e. Sold 1/4 Vitasoy
f. Sold Alibaba (9988)
g. Sold China Renaissance (1911)
h. Sold Sino Biopharm (1177)
i. Sold CR Beverage (2460)
j. Traded Baidu (9888)

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3534 from 3510 from 3472;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1536 from 1550 from 1528:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought RHB
d. Bought Hong Leong Bank
e. Added to DNEX
f. Traded Zetrix


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jul 18 @ 4.00 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 149 from 147 last week from 145 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.31 from 3.32 from 3.32;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.18;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8487 from 7.8494 from 7.8496;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Flat; 4.25 from 4.25 from 4.22;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.27;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.18 from 7.17 from 7.17;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 98.37 from 97.87 last week from 96.99 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 4.42% from 4.42% last week from 4.33% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.87% from 3.89% from 3.89%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.70 from 96.44 last week from 96.91 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Jul 27, 2025

Complacent.jpg

Complacent TACO Markets?

The markets have recovered all of their losses (and some) since "Liberation Day".

It's as if the tariffs will not be inflationary and it will also not lead to higher unemployment.

Just because the economic numbers do not show much inflation or increased unemployment now, it does not mean that they will not appear in a few quarters.

Yet, the markets are viewing things with rose colored glasses and everything is supposedly hunky dory.

If this is not an "overbought" position, I do not know what is.

Having said that, the "Gaza War", "Ukraine War" and "Iran War", have all de-escalated and are probably non-events for the time being.

Anyway, over the past three months, the "smart money" has been selling while the retail players have been buying the dips. So will the "smart money" now be chasing the rally or will the retail players be selling?

As for myself, I have been selling into the rally whenever I can.

I mentioned last week that I wanted to take a "trading break" as I was quite exhausted and numbed, from the antics of the Administration..

However, there were various trading opportunities this week and I didnt get my trading break eg. Krispy Kreme, ASMPT, Suncon, Sino BioPharma and GOOGL.

Maybe I should wait for the end of the Earnings Season before taking any trading break. In the meantime, I should try to take "mini-breaks" along the way including :-
1. Reading less Analyst Reports
2. Trading only High Conviction Stories
3. Waiting longer for Set-Ups
4. Pursuing only "3 to 1" (Reward vs Risk) opportunities
5. Skipping all "Short-Term" trades (within 3 days)
6. Focusing only on the "Medium-Term" trades (2 to 3 weeks)
etc.

In the meantime, I will leave you with the following from Schiff Sovereign:-
1. US national debt headed for $50T+ by 2033. Eight years away.
2. At just 6% interest, that’s $3T/year in debt service— 40%+ of tax revenue.
3. And that’s the same year Social Security becomes insolvent, i.e. trillions more in bailouts.
4. Foreign buyers are backing away from US government bonds. So the Fed will be forced to print—again.
5. This will almost certainly result in widespread inflation. And that’s before factoring in the inflationary effects of tariffs.

And the "Complacent TACO Markets" continues to rise...

Anyway, I did mentioned about two weeks ago that the "Cycle Experts" have been saying that the markets would be weak after July 28th ..

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US Earnings Season
2. Aug 1: New Money From The New Month
3. Various Tariffs Announcement
4. China: Poliburo Meeting; Additional Stimulus?
5. Jul 29 & 30; FOMC Meeting; Non-Event even if they reduce by 25 bps
6. Jul 31: 13th Malaysian Plan


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (36% from 38% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. Singapore: 0% (0 Counter); Boring Market
b. HK: 17% (5 Counters); ADR Relisting?
c. US: 32% (10 Counters); Stagflation?
d. Malaysia: 51% (16 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too big nor concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Jul 26, 2025 @ 7.08 AM)

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$65 from US$67 last week from US$68 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$3336 from US$3358 from US$3364;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks' holdings is about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will the sale of "Used Gold" be more than Central Banks' demand?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Vested in GLD
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Flat; US$38 from US$38 from US$39;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Vested in SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$5.79 from US$5.60 from US$5.60;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$72 from US$72 from US$72;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$117,228 from US$117,727 last week from US$117,383 two weeks ago @ 7.09 AM on Jul 26, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "74 Greed" from "75 Extreme Greed" last week from "75 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 6389 from 6297 last week from 6260 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5700; 5500; 5120; 4980; 4830; 4125; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: Fwd PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Added to Chagee (CHA)
j. Bought Phillip Morris (PM)
k. Sold 1/2 Alphabet (GOOGL)
l. Sold Krispy Kreme (DNUT)

2. HK Equities - Higher; 25388 from 24813 from 24172;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24750 (Mar 2025); 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Bought China Renaissance (1911)
e. Traded Sino Biopharm (1177)
f. Sold PopMart (9992)
g. Sold ASMPT (0522)
h. Sold Baidu (9888)

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3596 from 3595 from 3534;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1536 from 1550 from 1528:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Traded Suncon


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jul 25 @ 2.40 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 147 from 149 last week from 147 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.30 from 3.31 from 3.32;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.18 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8477 from 7.8487 from 7.8494;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.22 from 4.25 from 4.25;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.16 from 7.18 from 7.17;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 97.45 from 98.37 last week from 97.87 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.39% from 4.42% last week from 4.42% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.92% from 3.87% from 3.89%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 97.04 from 96.70 last week from 96.44 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 03, 2025

Liberation Day.jpg

Liberation Day 2.0; Dip Or Crash?

Over the past 2 weeks, I have mentioned the "Cycle" experts, who were predicting that the markets would be weak after July 28th.

Well, July 28th came and they were correct!

Not sure whether it's pure coincidence as Aug 1st was also the so called "HARD Tariff Deadline". (Well, it was supposed to be a hard deadline but within 24 hours, the deadline was extended for Mexico. So much for credibility).

As for the supposedly "weak cycle" that we are now going into, maybe it can be explained by the fact that people are starting to be tired of the Earnings Announcement, not to mentioned the weekly (if not daily) antics of the Administration.

At the beginning of US Earnings Season, the traders were very enthusiastic about the announcements and were chasing them. But as we move thru the US Earnings Season, (about half the companies have reported), the traders are getting a bit numbed and exhausted of the earnings announcements.

So the traders may no longer be chasing the news or announcements. Instead, they are probably taking profits and going away for their Summer Vacation.

At the same time, the AI Boom, Meme-stock Mania and Record Borrowing to buy stocks, are now fueling talk of a stock market bubble.

If this dip turns into a "M" or "Triple Top", then it could lead to something more serious.

As for myself, I'm expecting the markets to be weak and have been doing the following:-
1. Reducing my exposure to Equities
2. Moving into Defensive Dividends Equities
3. Buying Hedges eg. UVXY, SQQQ, 7515, GLD, TMF etc.
4. Building up a Cash position
etc.

At the same time, I need to remind myself that there's also a meme crowd out there and they could also move markets.

So I need to be a bit more careful, nimble and follow my rules diligently on:-
1. Asset Allocation
2. Diversification by Asset Class, Sector, Currency, Country etc.
3. Trailing Stop Loss
4. Time Expiry For Trades
5. Position Sizing
etc.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US Earnings Season (about half-way)
2. Various Tariffs Announcements & Renegotiations; TACO & Hard Deadlines?
3. Aug 12: China Tariff Announcement
4. Aug 21-23: Jackson Hole Feds Symposium


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (43% from 36% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 26% (6 Counters); ADR Relisting? Weaker Economy?
b. US: 31% (11 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 43% (18 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not too concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies

Commodities: Risk-Off; (As of Aug 02, 2025)

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$67 from US$65 last week from US$67 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Cut 6m bpd (6% Global Demand); To increase production?
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3416 from US$3336 from US$3358;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold (80%) ?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Vested in GLD
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$37 from US$38 from US$38;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. No longer vested in SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.44 from US$5.79 from US$5.60;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$72 from US$72 from US$72;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Lower. US$113,319 from US$117,228 last week from US$117,727 two weeks ago @ 8.08 AM on Aug 02, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "50 Neutral" from "74 Greed" last week from "75 Extreme Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Lower; 6238 from 6389 last week from 6297 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5700; 5500; 5120; 4980; 4830; 4125; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: Fwd PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Bought Novo Nordisk (NVO)
j. Added to UVXY (Volatility ETF)

2. HK Equities - Lower; 24507 from 25388 from 24813;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 24750 (Mar 2025); 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Bought PopMart (9992)
d. Traded China Renaissance (1911)
e. Sold ASM Pacific (0522)

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3582 from 3596 from 3595;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1533 from 1536 from 1550:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought Zetrix
d. Bought Microlink Warrants
e. Sold 1/2 Suncon
f. Traded Ekovest


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 02 @ 3.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 148 from 147 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.32 from 3.30 from 3.31;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Lower; 0.65 from 0.66 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.16 from 1.18 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8496 from 7.8477 from 7.8487;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.28 from 4.22 from 4.25;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 129 from 1.28 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Weaker; 7.21 from 7.16 from 7.18;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 98.68 from 97.45 last week from 98.37 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.22% from 4.39% last week from 4.42% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.70% from 3.92% from 3.87%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Lower: 96.35 from 97.04 last week from 96.70 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 10, 2025

slope-of-hope-wall-of-worry.jpg

Climbing A Wall of Worry?

The markets grinded higher last week as if everything is so great:-
1. Cant they not see that Stagflation is appearing?
2. Cant they not see the coming Global Slowdown?
3. Cant they not see that Equities are now Overbought and Overvalued?
4. Cant they not see that the huge US Deficit requires refinancing?
5. Cant they not see that the Middle Class is shrinking?
etc.

Is it just me that can see the above while the bulls are all blind?

Or is it just me that is blind, while the bulls can see the great opportunities out there, say in Artificial Intelligence, Robotics, Semiconductors, Cryptos, Pharmas etc.

While we climb the "Wall Of Worry", it's timely to remind myself of the quote that says that "there's no limit to stupidity".

Am I so stupid or are the bulls that stupid?

Well, how long does it take to prove one's stupidity? Three months? Six months? Two years?

Even at three months, one would have run out of capital if one is betting against the market.

However, I do agree that it may take some time for things to manifest and I need to remind myself to be not too early for the party else I would be looking at huge losses if I'm betting against the market.

Jesse Livermore, the supposedly greatest trader of all times, did go bankrupt three times because he was too early when betting against the market.

There's a time to be a Bull. There's a time to be a Bear. And there's also a time to just step aside and wait.

Maybe this is the time to just step aside and just go fishing. BTW, in my trades below, you would have noticed that my trading activities have also dwindled down quite a bit.

I will also be going for an extended trip soon so it's also time to pare down some of my positions. I also dont want to be checking my positions when I'm on holiday and I'm not too sure that the internet connectivity is going to be that great where I'm heading.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Ukraine War: TACO (I can stop this war in 1 Day) is meeting Putin in Alaska; Zelensky has already mentioned that none of the land in Ukraine can be ceded. Probably a non-event unless they pisses off each other.
2. US Earnings Season (last few laps)
3. Various Tariff Announcements & Renegotiations; India? Japan?
4. Aug 12: China Tariff Announcement
5. Aug 21-23: Jackson Hole Feds Symposium


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (37% from 43% last week from 36% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 15% (4 Counters); ADR Relisting? No longer actively trading HK after the run-up
b. US: 39% (12 Counters); Stagflation? To reduce number of counters to 10;
c. Malaysia: 46% (17 Counters); Banks Attractive? To reduce number of counters to 5;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to Malaysian Dividend Stocks eg. Banks
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$64 from US$67 last week from US$65 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: 4Q Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increased 0.5m bpd;
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
g. Watching XLE
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3491 from US$3416 from US$3336;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold (80%) ?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Vested in GLD
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$39 from US$37 from US$38;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
d. Vested in SLV
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.47 from US$4.44 from US$5.79;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Uranium - Flat; US$72 from US$72 from US$72;
Support: 14 (2016); Resistance: 140 (2007);
a. Kazatomprom, world's largest, to keep production flat in 2022 & 2023.
b. If O&G drops, how would that affect Uranium?
c. Watching SRUUF, URA, URNM and CCJ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

6. Bitcoin - Higher. US$116,708 from US$113,319 last week from US$117,228 two weeks ago @ 7.53 AM on Aug 09, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "59 Greed" from "50 Neutral" last week from "74 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 6389 from 6238 last week from 6389 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 5700; 5500; 5120; 4980; 4830; 4125; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6400; 7000
b. S&P 500: Fwd PE 22; Average 16
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Bought Eli Lilly (LLY)

2. HK Equities - Higher; 24858 from 24507 from 25388;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Sold PopMart (9992)
e. Sold China Renaissance (1911)

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3635 from 3582 from 3596;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1557 from 1533 from 1536:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold 1/2 Suncon


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Aug 09 @ 8.20 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 148 from 148 last week from 147 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.30 from 3.32 from 3.30;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.66;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.18;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Weaker; 7.8499 from 7.8496 from 7.8477;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.24 from 4.28 from 4.22;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.28 from 129 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.18 from 7.21 from 7.16;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 98.26 from 98.68 last week from 97.45 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.28% from 4.22% last week from 4.39% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 3.76% from 3.70% from 3.92%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.72 from 96.35 last week from 97.04 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 17, 2025

chaos.jpg

Remaining Sane In A World Of Chaos

The markets grinded higher again this week and I again took the opportunity to reduce my exposure to Equities.

Last week, I was ranting that the market was too complacent and somehow cannot see the various risks out there including;-
1. US Stagflation is appearing
2. A Global Slowdown is coming
3. Equities are now Overbought and Overvalued
4. The huge US Deficit requires refinancing
5. The global Middle Class is shrinking
6. The effects of the Tariffs are appearing
etc.

I then saw an article that mentioned that about 70% of the US trading activities are quant related and that could be the reason for the complacency in the markets.

Quant trading activities are mostly "Momentum Driven" and with the proliferation of ODTE (One Day To Expiry) options, it's no wonder that the computers do not care about economic or business fundamentals.

So when the market is rising, it will continue to go higher because the computers are buying and buying. However, once the momentum reverses (for whatever news), the selling will be fast and furious as the computers will have no problem selling and cutting losses (unlike humans).

As I would be going on a trip in early September, my strategy is to be a bit more careful over the next few weeks. If I was not going for my trip, I would probably be employing a "Hit & Run" strategy ie. trying to make quick 3% profits on small trades.

In the meantime, I'm trying to stay sane by reminding myself to be always in the present moment while repeating my affirmations.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US Earnings Season (last few laps)
2. Various Tariffs Announcements & Renegotiations; Semiconductors; Drugs
3. China: Beidaihe Retreat
4. Aug 21-23: Jackson Hole Feds Symposium
5. Sept 07: OPEC+ Meeting


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (32% from 37% last week from 43% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 20 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 14% (4 Counters); ADR Relisting?; Maximum 5 counters;
b. US: 37% (10 Counters); Stagflation?; Maximum 8 Counters;
c. Malaysia: 49% (15 Counters); Banks Attractive? Maximum 7 Counters;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to Malaysian Dividend Stocks eg. Banks
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-Off;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$63 from US$64 last week from US$67 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increased 0.5m bpd;
d. Next OPEC+ meeting: Sep 07, 2025
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
g. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
h. No longer interested in Oil (XLE)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Lower; US$3383 from US$3491 from US$3416;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold (80%) supply?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Vested in GLD
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Lower; US$38 from US$39 from US$37;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.49 from US$4.47 from US$4.44;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.10
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin - Higher. US$119,071 from US$116,708 last week from US$113,319 two weeks ago @ 4.10 PM on Aug 15, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "64 Greed" from "59 Greed" last week from "50 Neutral" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 6450 from 6389 last week from 6238 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash = PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.5
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Sold Alphabet (GOOGL)
j. Sold Eli Lilly (LLY)

2. HK Equities - Higher; 25270 from 24858 from 24507;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Sold 1/3 Vitasoy (0345)

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3697 from 3635 from 3582;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1576 from 1557 from 1533:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold 1/2 RHB
d. Sold Ambank
e. Sold Bursa


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Aug 16 @ 7.46 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 147 from 148 last week from 148 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
e. Monitoring FCY and YCL
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Weaker; 3.28 from 3.30 from 3.32;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Flat; 0.65 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8253 from 7.8499 from 7.8496;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.21 from 4.24 from 4.28;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 129;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.18 from 7.18 from 7.21;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 97.84 from 98.26 last week from 98.68 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Higher; 4.32% from 4.28% last week from 4.22% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Flat; 3.76% from 3.76% from 3.70%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 96.92 from 96.72 last week from 96.35 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Aug 24, 2025

dotdash.jpg

Irrational Exuberance 2.0 ?

It was about 30 years ago that Alan Greenspan used the word "irrational exuberance", to describe the dot.com fever.

And a few months after the comment by Alan Greenspan, we had the dot.com bust.

After 30 years, can we again use that word to describe the current AI fever? (The valuations now are similar to the dot.com fever).

More importantly, will we also have an AI bust in a few months time, at the same magnitude as the dot.com bust?

In addition to the current hype surrounding AI, the bulls are also saying that this rally has legs for the following reasons:-
1. Reduced tariff uncertainty
2. Moderating Inflation from an improving USD, widespread Chinese deflation, lower energy prices from “drill, baby, drill” etc.
3. A soon to be "Accommodative Central Bank"
4. Onshoring anticipated at > US$10 trillion eg. automotive suppliers & manufacturing, semiconductors and drug manufacturing.
5. Tax and Regulatory support
etc.

At the same time, the bears are reminding us of the following:-
1. Unemployment has risen to 4.2% from 3.4% in 2023
2. CPI inflation of 2.7% is above the Fed's 2% inflation target
3. The US GDP is expected to fall to 1.4% from 2.8% last year and
4. The Big, Beautiful Bill will add $3.4 trillion to the U.S. debt by 2034

So who will be right in a few months time?

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US Earnings Season (last few lap)
2. Various Tariffs Announcements & Renegotiations; Semiconductors; Drugs
3. China: Beidaihe Retreat
4. Sept 07: OPEC+ Meeting


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower; (30% from 32% last week from 37% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 16% (4 Counters); ADR Relisting? Tariffs;
b. US: 38% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 46% (14 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to Malaysian Dividend Stocks eg. Banks
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk-On;

1. WTI Oil - Higher. US$64 from US$63 last week from US$64 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increased 0.5m bpd;
d. Next OPEC+ meeting: Sep 07, 2025
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
g. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
h. No longer interested in Oil (XLE)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3416 from US$3383 from US$3491;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold (80%) supply?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Vested in GLD
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$39 from US$38 from US$39;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.46 from US$4.49 from US$4.47;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.10
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin - Lower. US$116,995 from US$119,071 last week from US$116,708 two weeks ago @ 5.36 AM on Aug 23, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as every Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Lower; "61 Greed" from "64 Greed" last week from "59 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 6450 from 6389 last week from 6238 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 180; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. Sold Novo Nordisk (NVO)

2. HK Equities - Higher; 25316 from 25270 from 24858;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. No Trade

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3826 from 3697 from 3635;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1597 from 1576 from 1557:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold MPI


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Aug 22 @ 5.10 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Weaker; 149 from 147 last week from 148 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.28 from 3.28 from 3.30;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Weaker; 0.64 from 0.65 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Weaker; 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.8176 from 7.8253 from 7.8499;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Weaker; 4.23 from 4.21 from 4.24;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Weaker; 1.29 from 1.28 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Flat; 7.18 from 7.18 from 7.18;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 98.73 from 97.84 last week from 98.26 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.26% from 4.32% last week from 4.28% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.70% from 3.76% from 3.76%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 97.43 from 96.92 last week from 96.72 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

b]TOL @ Aug 31, 2025[/b]

Buy, Sell or Hold.jpg

Sell, Hold or Buy?

The markets have not gone anywhere over the past week.

The bears are focusing on the following:-
1. Fund managers are reducing their nearly record-low holdings of cash
2. Some hedge fund investors are now shorting volatility
3. Net shorts on the CBOE Volatility Index VIX, reached levels not seen since Sep 2022
4. Investors might be moved by earnings but they are equally moved by 'Fedspeak'
5. Deteriorating Commercial Real Estate sector, massive re-migration and surging student loan delinquency rates.

At the same time, the Bulls are focusing on the following:-
1. Reshoring trillions - about US$10t in deals have already been announced
2. Tariffs as revenue engines - around US$3t in the next 10 years
3. Energy dominance - to expand domestic oil, gas and alternative energy
4. Infrastructure - construction, transportation and defense industries
5, Tariffs - Supreme Court decision in October

As for myself, since I will be travelling shortly, I have been reducing my exposure to Equities over the past few weeks.

I'm still cautiously bullish. Liquidity is fairly high but the macroeconomics are deteriorating.

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Various Tariffs Announcements & Renegotiations; Semiconductors; Drugs;
2. China: Beidaihe Retreat
3. Sep 07: OPEC+ Meeting
4. Mid Oct: Tariff (Supreme Court)
5. Oct: China - Fourth Plenum
6. Oct: Malaysian Budget


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (33% from 30% last week from 32% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 23% (6 Counters); ADR Relisting? Tariffs;
b. US: 34% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 43% (13 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to Malaysian Dividend Stocks eg. Banks
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed; Data as of Saturday;

1. WTI Oil - Flat. US$64 from US$64 last week from US$63 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increased 0.5m bpd;
d. Next OPEC+ meeting: Sep 07, 2025
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
g. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
h. No longer interested in Oil (XLE)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3531 from US$3416 from US$3383;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 3500
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold (80%) supply?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Vested in GLD
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$40 from US$39 from US$38;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Higher. US$4.61 from US$4.46 from US$4.49;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.10
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin - Lower. US$108,525 from US$116,995 last week from US$119,071 two weeks ago @ 7.38 AM on Aug 30, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "64 Greed" from "61 Greed" last week from "64 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 6450 from 6389 last week from 6238 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6600; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 213; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Lower; 25077 from 25316 from 25270;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Bought Alibaba (9988)
e. Bought China Renaissance (1911)

3. Shanghai Equities - Higher; 3858 from 3826 from 3697;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Lower; 1575 from 1597 from 1576:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to Maybank
d. Added to Public Bank
e. Sold Hong Leong Bank


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Aug 30 @ 9.50 PM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Stronger; 147 from 149 last week from 147 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Stronger; 3.29 from 3.28 from 3.28;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.65 from 0.64 from 0.65;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Stronger; 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7966 from 7.8176 from 7.8253;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.22 from 4.23 from 4.21;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Stronger; 1.28 from 1.29 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.13 from 7.18 from 7.18;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 97.86 from 98.73 last week from 97.84 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.22% from 4.26% last week from 4.32% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.62% from 3.70% from 3.76%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Higher: 97.52 from 97.43 last week from 96.92 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.

[winston]

TOL @ Sep 07, 2025

Buy, Sell or Hold.jpg

Buy, Hold or Sell (2.0) ?

The markets didnt go anywhere for the past week although some individual counters were very volatile eg. Alibaba, Alphabet, Broadcom, Chagee, Lululemon etc

As everyone around me are quite bearish, it's timely to see what can go right for the markets including:-
1. The Advance / Decline Line is rising
2. The S&P 500 Equal Weight is breaking out
3. US Strong Corporate Earnings
4. Monetary Easing
5. AI-Led Productivity Gains
6. Regulatory and Taxation Tailwinds
7. Market-Friendly Administration
etc.

And before I rush out into the markets to deploy my Cash, it's also good to note that Peter Grandich warned that the so-called “everything bubble” in stocks, bonds, real estate and other assets, is entering its final stage.

He points to four historic crash signals:-
1. Fantasy Pricing
2. Paper Riches
3. Overconfidence and
4. Dangerous Assumptions eg. AI & Cryptos
And all are flashing red now.

Anyway, I wont be doing much trading over the next few weeks as I would be going away. Therefore, I have some time to think about whether this market really does have legs (after such a strong run-up) despite the worsening economic indicators.

It's the "Liquidity versus Earnings" discussion again. We know that Valuations are high and Earnings are weakening (except for the Techs). So can the existing Liquidity out there continue to prop up the markets? And what can pr**k the bubble?

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Tariffs; Semiconductors; Drugs etc.
2. China: Beidaihe Retreat
3. US Cities: Why are National Guards being deployed?
4. Sep 07: OPEC+ Meeting
5. Sep 16 & 17 - FOMC Meeting
6. Sep 30: US Shutdown
7. Sep 30: 3Q Window Dressing
8. Oct 14: Tariff (Supreme Court)
9. Oct: China - Fourth Plenum
10. Oct: Malaysian Budget

I will not be able to write an Investment Blog next Sunday.


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher; (36% from 33% last week from 30% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 27% (6 Counters); ADR Relisting? Tariffs;
b. US: 32% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 41% (13 Counters); Banks Attractive?
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to Malaysian Dividend Stocks eg. Banks
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Mixed; Data as of Saturday;

1. WTI Oil - Lower. US$62 from US$64 last week from US$64 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increased 0.5m bpd;
d. Next OPEC+ meeting: Sep 07, 2025
e. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
f. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 57
g. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
h. No longer interested in Oil (XLE)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold - Higher; US$3653 from US$3531 from US$3416;
Support: 2995; 2955; 2930; 1490; Resistance 4000
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold (80%) supply?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Vested in GLD
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver - Higher; US$42 from US$40 from US$39;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper - Lower. US$4.55 from US$4.61 from US$4.46;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.10
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

5. Bitcoin - Higher. US$110,676 from US$108,525 last week from US$116,995 two weeks ago @ 8.14 AM on Sep 6, 2025
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index - Higher; "64 Greed" from "61 Greed" last week from "64 Greed" two weeks ago.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities - Higher; 6482 from 6450 last week from 6389 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 6600; 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 22; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 31; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 213; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 24,380; Support: 22.370; 18000, 17435
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade

2. HK Equities - Higher; 25430 from 25077 from 25316;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800; 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 26400; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. Bought Popmart (9992)
e. Sold Alibaba (9988)

3. Shanghai Equities - Lower; 3813 from 3858 from 3826;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities: Higher; 1577 from 1575 from 1597:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1450, 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to RHB Bank


Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Sep 06 @ 8.15 AM)

1. USD to JPY - JPY Flat; 147 from 147 last week from 149 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR - SGD Flat; 3.29 from 3.29 from 3.28;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
b. When to convert some SGD to MYR?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD - AUD Stronger; 0.66 from 0.65 from 0.64;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD - EUR Flat; 1.17 from 1.17 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD - HKD Stronger; 7.7965 from 7.7966 from 7.8176;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR:- MYR Stronger; 4.21 from 4.22 from 4.23;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD:- SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY:- CNY Stronger; 7.11 from 7.13 from 7.18;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Weaker; 97.74 from 97.86 last week from 98.73 two weeks ago; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
a. The number of land parcels that sold for at least 20 per cent above the asking price accounted for 37 per cent of deals this year.
b. That compares with just 14 per cent for all of last year and 4.6 per cent in 2023.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
a. New launches are at 2017 prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 4.07% from 4.22% last week from 4.26% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries - Lower; 3.51% from 3.62% from 3.70%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF) - Flat: 97.51 from 97.52 last week from 97.43 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.