School of Hard Knocks 02 (Jan 10 - Jan 13)

Re: School of Hard Knocks 02 (Jan 10 - Dec 10)

Postby b0rderc0llie » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:20 am

For the commodities, if we have bought it before the financial crisis, it will be hit during the crisis. If we had held onto them until now, they would be profitable. If we had bought more during the crisis, it would be even better.

For the equities and the QE2, I am 100% long equities. Crisis come, I will raise money, buy somemore. Buying and holding.
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Re: School of Hard Knocks 02 (Jan 10 - Dec 10)

Postby kennynah » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:34 am

b0rderc0llie wrote:For the commodities, if we have bought it before the financial crisis, it will be hit during the crisis. If we had held onto them until now, they would be profitable. If we had bought more during the crisis, it would be even better.

For the equities and the QE2, I am 100% long equities. Crisis come, I will raise money, buy somemore. Buying and holding.


BC :

your method is generally acceptable and should be practiced...

after some time, i've come to know that you have a very large monetary buffer for every position you take...to ensure that you allow for a large price fluctuation.... usually, this means you end up winning, but not always so immediately...
Last edited by kennynah on Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:04 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: School of Hard Knocks 02 (Jan 10 - Dec 10)

Postby b0rderc0llie » Mon Oct 11, 2010 10:48 am

I've lost on shorting gold, copper and 10 year US treasury note futures. I do not have a cut loss, but I had closed my positions as I do not want to be short on those anymore. The only short I have now is on wheat futures.
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Re: School of Hard Knocks 02 (Jan 10 - Dec 10)

Postby kennynah » Mon Oct 11, 2010 11:06 am

good luck on your wheat....

i reckon i dont have much luck on this counter...i seemed to have gotten the timing off a little...so, i'm out just before the limit up move last fri...in this sense, i was fortunate not to be hurt by it.. hope you are fine on this counter...

by the way...corn limit up $45 when trading started early this morning...
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Re: School of Hard Knocks 02 (Jan 10 - Dec 10)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 12, 2010 12:48 pm

TOL:-

Kennynah got me thinking from the "Warning Signs" thread ..

If you have read the books on Jesse Livermore, you would know that he went bankrupt 3 times. And it was over-confidence that wiped him out each time ...

I recall Jesse Livermore mentioning the following:
When times are good, make sure you put away something for a rainy day. Put it inside a Trust where you cant touch the money. Alternatively, pass the money to your wife as she's always more careful with money than you ...
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: School of Hard Knocks 02 (Jan 10 - Dec 10)

Postby kennynah » Tue Oct 12, 2010 1:00 pm

winston wrote:When times are good, make sure you put away something for a rainy day. Put it inside a Trust where you cant touch the money. Alternatively, pass the money to your wife as she's always more careful with money than you ...


i duno about this man....hahahaha.... when was the last time you looked into the wardrobe and count the number of branded bags your wife has :mrgreen:
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Re: School of Hard Knocks 02 (Jan 10 - Dec 10)

Postby iam802 » Tue Oct 12, 2010 1:36 pm

it shows you how BIG Winston is playing.

BIGGER than the branded bags :)
1. Always wait for the setup. NO SETUP; NO TRADE

2. The trend will END but I don't know WHEN.

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Re: School of Hard Knocks 02 (Jan 10 - Dec 10)

Postby kennynah » Tue Oct 12, 2010 1:47 pm

my bad 8-)
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Re: School of Hard Knocks 02 (Jan 10 - Dec 10)

Postby winston » Tue Oct 12, 2010 2:11 pm

Ha Ha ...

Having said the above, I think a new generation of heroes have not appeared yet. it normally takes about 10 years for a new generation of heroes to appear.

So the current players would still remember the Financial Crisis from 2 years ago. Therefore, they wont be too reckless either...

I think the current "euphoria" is being played up by the BBs. I dont think there's alot of participation from the retail investors. So the BBs are probably playing amongst themselves :?
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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Re: School of Hard Knocks 02 (Jan 10 - Dec 10)

Postby winston » Thu Dec 09, 2010 9:38 pm

The Financial Media Wants to Brainwash and Bankrupt You By Dan Ferris


The financial news media is conspiring to blow up your brokerage account and flush your retirement savings down Ben Bernanke's new commode.

I'm not saying the editors of top financial newspapers and magazines sat down together and hashed out a plan to brainwash you and bankrupt you. No, I really don't think they did that. It only looks like they did it…

The conspirator I'd like to focus on today is Barron's, one of the most well-respected publications in the industry. By the look of it, you'd think it made a bet that it could nail the best "cover story sell signal"…

The cover story sell signal is one of the best contrarian indicators around. Whenever a trend is deeply ingrained enough in the public mind to sell magazines off the newsstand, you know it's about to end.

For example, in March 1999, oil was around $15-$16 a barrel. The cover of The Economist showed a picture of two oil workers covered in the stuff, with the headline, "Drowning in Oil," implying weaker oil prices. That was the beginning of the massive bull run that eventually took oil to $147 a barrel in 2008.

Another famous example is from BusinessWeek. In August 1979, the cover said, "The Death of Equities." Stocks bottomed in the second quarter of 1980, retested the bottom in 1982, and took off on the biggest bull market in history.

These days, you'll find the most irresponsibly ostrich-like, head-in-sand attitude on the cover of the November 29 issue of Barron's…

It shows a retiree lounging with a cocktail next to a waterfall of money. The headline promises, "How to keep the income flowing." The article inside is called "Going with the flow."

That doesn't sound very contrarian to me… It's essentially an invitation to throw caution to the wind and take on more overpriced risk. And the Barron's story is recommending a whole slew of risky investments…

Among the high-risk offerings touted by Barron's: emerging market debt, foreign government bonds, high-yield corporate bonds, Build America Bonds (subsidies for municipal bond issuers), senior bank loans, MLPs, dividend-paying stocks (well, that one's a pretty good idea, actually), variable annuities, and the one that's been going straight to hell faster than the rest of them lately, municipal bonds.

It's as though someone at Barron's sat down and decided to make a list of the riskiest stuff you could buy right now. Income – especially fixed income – is clearly a bubble. That Barron's is trying to sell this list of fixed-income and near-fixed-income investments as a retirement-worthy portfolio seems more irresponsible than usual.

It even tells retirees to take more risk, saying, "Generating a rich stream of post-retirement income these days requires investments that retirees once might have shunned."

Adding particular insult to injury, a smaller headline on the left-hand margin of Barron's November 29 cover says, "REITs have the right stuff."

I guess as long as you ignore the cacophonous crashing sound coming from the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) market, the equity in commercial real estate looks positively peachy. In particular, the delinquency rates on mortgage-backed securities secured by apartment buildings spiked more than 100 basis points in November, to 15.8%. That's from the same report by CMBS tracker Trepp that says the overall CMBS delinquency rate rose to 8.93%, up 35 basis points from October.

The loans underlying U.S. commercial real estate are blowing up at higher rates. But Barron's thinks the equity slice, the riskiest piece of the pie, is somehow appropriate for retirees.

Let me tell you something: If the bond holders aren't getting paid, the equity holders can throw their tickets in the trash, have a smoke and a pancake, and resign themselves to getting crushed.

And like every other kind of yield, REIT yields have compressed like prosciutto under a Sumo wrestler. The U.S. Real Estate Index dividend yield has fallen from 11.19% in February 2009 to less than 4.6% today. For taking on all kinds of risk, you're paid just a little more than 30-year Treasurys.

That's a bad deal. And you should turn up your nose.

Barron's and the rest of the financial news industry is a shameless tout machine, by all appearances in the direct employ of Wall Street, the Fed, and anybody who's already got a ton of money.

It's forgotten how to say, "Inflation is bad for business, and what's bad for business is bad for stocks. Sell fairly valued stocks. Hold cash. Buy only when valuations are dirt cheap and business quality is stellar."

Source: Daily Wealth
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