Market Timing 07 (Nov 22 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Is the Recession Over? Big Tech Earnings Go From Slump to Surge

by Luke Lango

On Wall Street, the economic turnaround has arrived.

Which means it is time to tune out the recession chatter and fear-mongering headlines. While they might grab your attention, they won’t guide your investments wisely.

Your portfolio deserves to be ready for what the data says is a major impending economic upturn.

Don’t miss out on this opportunity…

Source: Hypergrowth Investing

[winston]

How the Sausage is Made

by Jeff Clark

After last week’s ugly action, the conditions are in place for a sustainable rally, into the end of the year.

Of course, there aren’t any guarantees.

For reference, though, traders who bought into this same type of setup last year enjoyed a 14% gain in the S&P 500 within six weeks.

A similar move this year would have the index trading at new highs for the year by Christmas.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market- ... e-is-made/

[behappyalways]

Reasonable that we get a bounce and then a resumption of downward pressure
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 5341756499

[winston]

The S&P 500 is on the verge of a technical breakdown. Here's the sell signal to watch for.

by Matthew Fox

Stockton said that 4,180 is a key support level that needs to be preserved to prevent further selling.

Extreme sentiment readings suggest to Stockton that a reversal in stock prices could be imminent.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-ve ... 04679.html

[winston]

There are 2 reasons why the stock market is set to underperform in the next few years, according to Vanguard's CIO

by Jennifer Sor

US stocks are set to underperform, according to Vanguard's chief investment officer.

The firm estimated the S&P 500 would yield between 4.7%-6.7% over the next few years.

That's well below its recent average, thanks to two dynamics that are weakening the outlook for equities:-
1. Valuations are too high
2. The risk premium in the stock market is too low.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2-reason ... 18011.html

[winston]

Buy Stocks Now

by Jeff Clark

The S&P 500 peaked near 4600. It closed Friday near 4120. That’s a 10% decline in three months.

Buying stocks today is a whole lot better than buying them three months ago.

Bullish Percent Index for the S&P 500 (BPSPX) is 23.

Source: Jeff Clark Trader

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/11/01/ ... cks-now-3/

[winston]

Always Remember to Buy in November

by Keith Kaplan

Data shows that November kicks off one of the most seasonally strong periods going back decades.

We may have already seen the bottom. And the first piece of evidence is how much more fundamentally healthy the market is looking right now…

As of today, just 19% of companies in the S&P 500 are trading above their 50-day moving average. That’s up from the 6% on October 1. This is still lousy, shows that the market is getting a lot healthier.

Sell In May And Buy In November

Now’s one of the best times I’ve seen in a long while to begin shopping for stocks.

Don’t let fear keep your portfolio on the sidelines. The odds point to the makings of a rally beginning soon.

Source: TradeSmith

https://tradesoftheday.com/2023/11/02/a ... -november/

[winston]

Stocks Still Have Room to Run

by Sean Michael Cummings

In October, the Bank of America (“BofA”) Bull & Bear Indicator slid to 1.5… its lowest level since November 2022.

The October AAII bullish reading plunged 5 percentage points to just 29%. That’s well below its historic average of 38%.

Of course, stocks could fall further from here. But history shows it’s still too soon to give up on the market. Today’s extreme pessimism could even fuel a big rally to end the year.

A 10% drawdown is painful… but it isn’t a definitive bull market killer. Stocks still have room to run – so don’t let this correction shake you out of the market.

Source: Daily Wealth

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/11/07/ ... om-to-run/

[winston]

We're Rallying ... Right Over a Cliff

If you're scratching your head as to how markets could rise for 7-straight days amid growing bad news about the economy, then you're not alone.

by Bret Jensen

It certainly isn't because growth prospects are improving.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow is currently projecting fourth-quarter growth will be only 25% of the third quarter's growth.

Bloomberg also recently said that S&P 500 companies are citing "weak demand" more during third-quarter earnings season than at any time to date this century and crude oil prices have plunged to three-month lows.

Job growth is clearly slowing over the past few months. Over 60% of Americans are also living paycheck to paycheck, according to the latest surveys. That's one reason credit card debt just hit a record $1.08 trillion in the third quarter, up $154 billion from a year ago. The debt is rising just as credit card interest rates are at historical highs.

U.S. banking lending standards have tightened across the board once again in the third quarter. The report noted almost 30% of banks tighten their standards on small firm C&I loans. Based on historical trends, Deutsche Bank Research articulated this has meant a 90% probability of a recession over the next 12 months.

Source: The Street

https://realmoney.thestreet.com/stocks/ ... f-16137544

[winston]

ETF to Cover $8 Billion in Short Options and the Market Knows It

by Jan-Patrick Barnert

The $7.7 billion Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF sells call options on the Nasdaq 100 to increase returns from the performance of shares in the index.

Thanks to the technology benchmark’s almost 10% rally since late October, the ETF’s short position expiring Friday, is now well below the index’s current level, meaning the fund will need to buy thousands of futures contracts to cover.

The transaction will create about $8 billion in Nasdaq futures to be bought as the hedge comes off.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/etf-cove ... 53572.html