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by winston » Fri Sep 01, 2023 5:50 pm
Stocks could slump within the next few months, says Tudor Investments' Ulrike Hoffmann-Burchardi.
Risks include AI disappointment, slower growth, and banking problems, the investor warns.
Inflation, a government shutdown, and a private-market shakeout could also cause problems, she says.
by winston » Sun Sep 03, 2023 10:56 am
September is historically the worst month for stocks.
Looking back to 1945, the S&P 500 has declined more than half the time in September, according to CFRA, with an average return of -0.73%.
But before you get caught up in seasonal market trends, September might not be as bad as history predicts.
Excitement around AI, cash on the sidelines, and Apple’s (AAPL) rumored brand-new iPhone, may be enough to buck September's usual downward trend.
The total assets in money market funds have risen dramatically this year, totaling $5.57 trillion as of Aug. 23.
by winston » Sun Oct 01, 2023 6:02 pm
On Tuesday, the VIX closed above its upper Bollinger Band. This will generate a broad stock market buy signal when it closes back inside the bands.
We’re now in position for another VIX buy signal at any moment.
If the bounce follows the same script as the previous buy signals, then the S&P 500 could be trading sharply higher by Halloween.
So, despite the bearish action we’ve witnessed all month, it looks like the stock market is setting up for a decent short-term bounce. We’ll look for an appropriate time to trade it.
by winston » Wed Oct 04, 2023 9:16 am
by winston » Wed Oct 04, 2023 9:28 am
Septembers are tough for stocks – and last month was a real killer.
But stocks are likely to resume their rise from here.
Don’t get scared out of the market yet… If anything, history shows that now is a good time to buy.
by winston » Tue Oct 10, 2023 10:00 pm
CNN Business’ Fear & Greed Index. This gauge tracks seven different indicators – including volatility, momentum, and demand for “safe” investments, to name a few.
Investors are terrified today. The bad news may seem never-ending. But history suggests you shouldn’t join the panic.
The next leg up looks to be just around the corner… and all this negative sentiment should fuel the bull run to come.
by winston » Wed Oct 11, 2023 2:00 pm
The perfect opportunity for investors to buy the dip in stocks is approaching, according to Fundstrat's Mark Newton.
The S&P 500 will drop to 4,200 before recovering, Newton said on CNBC Tuesday.
That's largely because the Fed is probably done hiking interest rates.
by winston » Thu Oct 12, 2023 9:50 pm
The put-to-call ratio jumped to more than 1.5 last Wednesday. That was its highest level since December 2022. And it was a clear sign that market fear had taken hold…
The last extreme in the put-to-call ratio was on December 21, 2022 – when it jumped above 1.5 for the first time in more than a year. That happened near the lows of a market pullback that had started earlier that month… And roughly seven months later, the S&P 500 was up 20%.
Clearly, folks are worried about the market right now. But historical trends indicate that now is not the time to panic. If the trend holds, we could be in for a sharp snapback rally in the near term.
by winston » Fri Oct 20, 2023 9:56 pm
Since 1950, losing streaks of four or more weeks led to 5% gains over six months and 9.8% gains over the following year.
You don’t have to panic right now. And if history plays out as expected, you still want to own stocks today.
by winston » Tue Oct 24, 2023 11:20 am
Stocks have room to rally 14% this year, according to Piper Sandler strategist Craig Johnson.
Johnson pointed to various indicators eg. S&P 500 breadth, Bank of America's Bull and Bear Indicator, VIX etc. that suggest the S&P 500 is oversold
Stocks look fairly resilient when considering the current array of economic headwinds, he said.
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