Global Economic Data & News 03 (May 22 - Dec 25)

[winston]

The WEF’s Chief Economists Outlook from May 2022 cited “the perfect storm”, and listed 6 expectations for the future of the global economy:
1. Higher inflation alongside lower real wages globally
2. Food insecurity in developing economies
3. More localization, diversification and politicization of supply chains
4. Greater rollback of globalization in goods, labor and technology than services
5. Sanctions effective in dampening the economic outlook for Russia
6. Continued dominance of the US dollar as a global reserve currency

Additionally, the report cites that it is an incredibly complex environment for policy makers around the globe to navigate, specifying there are tough trade-offs to make.

They are:
1. Balancing the risks of inflation and contraction
2. Balancing the risks of food, fuel and inequality crisis with higher debt and the risk of default
3. Balancing the risks of continued fossil fuel use against the shift to green energy
4. Balancing national priorities with long-term, global goals

In April, the WEF downgraded its forecasts on 143 countries, representing 86% of global GDP, and noted that in the short period of time since then, the situation has worsened.

Source: Simply Wall Street

[winston]

World Bank Cuts 2022E Global Econ Growth to 2.9%, Warns Stagflation Risk

World Bank reduced the 2022E global economic growth by nearly a third to 2.9%, warning that Russia's invasion of Ukraine exacerbated the impact from the COVID-19 pandemic, which in turn rendered many countries vulnerable to potential recession.

World Bank President David Malpass illustrated that, should the downside risks materialize, the global economic growth could further decelerate to 2.1% in 2022 and 1.5% in 2023. Malpass, in addition, warned that there is a considerably high risk of stagflation.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

Why global economies should expect to see out 2022 in better shape than now

Shanghai’s reopening and the Chinese government’s heavy-duty policy support for the Covid-19-battered economy are not the only good news

The Fed’s firm handling of its interest rate rises also signals that US inflation can be tamed without the economy falling into recession, calming investor nerves

by Tai Hui

Source: SCMP

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/ar ... 94535920b1

[winston]

Global Wealth Soared to a Record $530 Trillion Last Year, a New Report Says

The increase was helped along by a surge in demand for assets such as art, wine and property.

By TORI LATHAM

Global wealth skyrocketed to a new high in 2021, increasing 10.6 percent to reach a total of $530 trillion, according to a report released by Boston Consulting Group on June 9. That’s the highest annual rate in more than a decade.

The increase was driven by strong equity markets and a surge in demand for real assets such as wine, art and property, Bloomberg noted.

About $80 trillion of new wealth is likely to be created in the next half-decade alone.

Source: Robb Report

https://robbreport.com/lifestyle/news/g ... 234689614/

[winston]

Planet's richest have lost US$1.4 trillion YTD in 2022 as global markets rattled

by Surin Murugiah

The top five richest individuals, namely Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Bernard Arnault, Bill Gates and Warren Buffet have lost a combined US$220.13 billion year-to-date.

The US, Japan, China and Germany, remain among the top countries where most of the world's wealthy live.

The four are home to almost 64% of high-net-worth individuals (HNWI) globally.

Source: theedgemarkets.com

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... ts-rattled

[behappyalways]

World's Billionaires See $1.4 Trillion In Wealth Evaporate Amid Market Turmoil
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/world ... et-turmoil

[behappyalways]

One person familiar with the situation said shipments of consumer goods from the company hadn't been halted, but planned shipments in July have been halved.

Samsung Asks Component Makers To Delay Shipments Amid Build-Up In Inventories
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/samsu ... nventories

[winston]

Citi: Chance of Global Recession Edges Near 50%

As central banks tighten monetary policy and demand for goods wanes, the probability of the global economy falling into a recession is edging closer to 50%, according to economists at Citigroup (C.US).

The experience of history has illustrated that disinflation will typically carry substantial costs for economic growth, the economists opined.

While the central banks may still be hoping for "soft landings", it would require the supply chain shocks to subside and demand to remain resilient.

Citigroup forecast that the world economy will grow by 3% in 2022 and 2.8% in 2023.

Should a global economic recession take place, the unemployment rate could climb by few ppts, with the economy remaining enervated for a couple of quarters, the report added.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

[winston]

'Alarm stage': this is not a drill

by Julien Ponthus

Heightened risks of a U.S. recession

Germany triggered the "alarm stage" of its emergency gas plan in response to falling Russian supply.

Bond yields across the euro zone fell, taking little notice of Norway's central bank delivering its largest single interest rate increase since 2002.

The economic implications of Russia cutting off gas to Europe to bolster political leverage triggered heavy selling in the euro and Germany's DAX stocks benchmark.

Source: Reuters

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ ... -not-drill

[behappyalways]

經濟衰退會不會真的來？【Yahoo TV ＃風向龍鳳配】
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=f_piv-R8AV0