Warning Signs 04 (Jul 23 - Dec 26)

[winston]

Credit Spreads Spike to a Year-Plus High

by Brett Eversole

The spike we’ve seen in recent weeks is a bad sign. It’s a clear red light for investors and the economy.

The high-yield spread was at roughly 3.1 on March 24. It has since spiked above 4. And it peaked above 4.6 on April 7, after Trump announced his new global tariff policies.

The good news is, spreads have fallen from their recent peak. That means we could end up shrugging off this current bout of pessimism. But if the spread spikes again from here, economic turmoil could easily follow.

Either way, the bond market is worried… And that’s worth paying attention to.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/04/25/ ... plus-high/

[winston]

One chart shows tariffs are already slowing economic activity

Incoming shipments to the Port of Los Angeles are expected to be roughly 36% lower than the previous year in the week ending May 10.

Source: Yahoo Finance

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-char ... 5920839559

[behappyalways]

Global stock markets are going crazy!

Four "irrational trends": Be careful of this kind of US stock market, which may cause a "cliff-like" collapse?

【CC字幕】全球股市瘋漲！陳鳳馨揭露四大「非理性熱潮」：小心這類美股恐爆「斷崖式」崩跌？【Yahoo TV #風向龍鳳配

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=RB4Y7RELFRk

[winston]

by behappyalways;-

Another Canary: The Las Vegas Economy Is Tanking Just Like It Did In 2008 And 2009

Source: Zero Hedge

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-fina ... 8-and-2009

[winston]

3 Potential Economic Landmines Not On Most Investors' Radars

by Bret Jensen

Summary

Inflation, monetary policy, federal debt levels, tariffs and slow economic growth remain top concerns for investors.

However, there are several potential economic landmines not getting much attention from the financial press that prudent investors should have on their radars.

These include a deteriorating CRE sector, massive re-migration and surging student loan delinquency rates.

Source: Seeking Alpha

https://seekingalpha.com/article/481632 ... e=hs_email

[winston]

Hedge funds are placing risky bets on the U.S. stock market — here's why to worry

by Noah Weidner

Bank of America's monthly fund survey has found that fund managers reducing their nearly record-low holdings of cash.

Some hedge fund investors are now shorting volatility.

Net shorts on the Cboe Volatility Index VIX reached levels not seen since Sept. 2022.

Investors might be moved by earnings, but they are equally moved by 'Fedspeak.'

Source: The Street

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hedge-fu ... 40343.html

[winston]

Pentagon pizza index shows "DEFCON 1" hinting at officials working late in the building

Pizza orders had apparently spiked around the Pentagon according to Pentagon Pizza Index.

by Aaratrika Bal

Source: Prime Time

https://www.primetimer.com/news/pentago ... e-building

[winston]

Danger Not Seen in 40+ Years - This SIGNAL Happens Before Every Market Crash

“Danger is an understatement right now,” says veteran Wall Street strategist Peter Grandich, founder of Peter Grandich & Company and author of Confessions of a Former Wall Street Whiz Kid.

In today’s interview with Daniela Cambone, Grandich warns that the so-called “everything bubble” in stocks, bonds, real estate, and other assets is entering its final stage.

He points to four historic crash signals — fantasy pricing, paper riches, overconfidence and dangerous assumptions—all flashing red at once.

Grandich cautions that the U.S. can no longer afford another financial crisis, with consumers already stretched thin, tariffs weighing on businesses, and housing and auto markets flashing warning signs.

Source: ITM TRADING, INC.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICWZ1nouhWc

[winston]

Wall Street boss warns of ‘cockroaches’ in $3tn debt market

by Chris Price

He was worried about more corporate collapses in the wake of the bankruptcies of subprime car lender Tricolour and auto parts supplier First Brands.

JP Morgan lost $170m in the collapse of Tricolour.

“My antenna goes up when things like that happen. I probably shouldn’t say this but when you see one cockroach, there’s probably more.”

The comments will fuel mounting concerns about the health of the opaque $3tn private credit market, often referred to as shadow banking.

Private equity companies and other money managers in this corner of finance extend loans to companies rather than banks. Regulation is far lighter compared to traditional banks and the sector is far less transparent.

Observers worry lending practices have gotten looser and fear the true performance of loans is being masked by financial engineering.

Source: The Telegraph

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-str ... 46205.html

[winston]

Growing disconnect between stock market and underlying economy

The fundamentals of the domestic economy, which point to steady but unspectacular growth, do not really justify unbridled optimism

by R Sivanithy

World Bank estimates indicate that by 2027, global gross domestic product growth may average only 2.5 per cent in the 2020s – the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s.

This apparent contradiction of a booming market alongside a tepid economy mirrors a trend seen in many other places, such as the US.

One major reason behind this disconnect is liquidity. The US Federal Reserve’s prolonged period of monetary accommodation from 2008 until 2022 has flooded global markets with cheap money and although US rates were raised in 2022, in response to surging inflation, liquidity remains abundant due to 14 years of “quantitative easing”.

A second reason for the market’s strength is, ironically, the very fact that the economy isn’t too hot, which is fuelling expectations that the Fed will have to cut interest rates sooner or later to stimulate business activity.

In the US, Tech giants such as Nvidia, Tesla, Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Meta, have propelled the major indices to record highs, even as inflation remains sticky and labour markets remain weak amid the destabilising effects of recent policy shifts, especially new tariffs.

Those who chase the rally without regard to valuations or earnings sustainability may find themselves exposed when the tide turns. Last week’s correction should be an early warning signal.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... ng-economy