US - Market Strategy 03 (Jan 24 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

Shocking
https://x.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1955647229710217704

[winston]

How investors should be thinking as the stock market nears a P/E ratio of 30—a number that spelled disaster before the dotcom crash

By Shawn Tully

On the macro scene, the danger signs are multiplying. The latest employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed that the U.S. added a meager 73,000 jobs in July, and revised the May and June figures radically downward.

GDP growth has also proved disappointing, clocking far below the Trump administration’s highly aspirational target of 3%. The economy expanded at an annualized clip of just 1.75% through the first half of 2025,

On the inflation front, it appears that the Trump tariffs are finally starting to bite.

The residential real estate market, for both sales and construction, remains stymied by a combination of record housing prices and mortgage rates hovering at roughly 6.7%, twice the cost three and a half years ago.

It’s also cautionary that the P/E struck 30 only during just one period between 1888, where the data begins, and the start of the dotcom takeoff in 1998. The landmark we’ve just seen repeated occurred in 1929, shortly prior to the wipeout ushering in the Great Depression.

Source: Fortune

https://fortune.com/2025/08/16/stock-ma ... d=15883112

[behappyalways]

It's different this time . . .
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1956838222723477938

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Goldman Sachs (GS)... financial giant
Deutsche Bank (DB)... financial services
Royal Bank of Canada (RY)... financial services
Banco Santander (SAN)... Spanish bank
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)... health titan
Sony (SONY)... gadgets and entertainment
eBay (EBAY)... online marketplace
Meta Platforms (META)... social media giant
Reddit (RDDT)... social media
Wayfair (W)... home goods
Hasbro (HAS)... toys
Celsius (CELH)... beverages
Loews (L)... hotels
New Gold (NGD)... gold

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Alight (ALIT)... information technology and consulting
Globant (GLOB)... software
Nomad Foods (NOMD)... frozen food

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Deutsche Bank (DB)... financial services
UBS (UBS)... Swiss bank
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM)... biopharmaceuticals
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)... biopharmaceuticals
Analog Devices (ADI)... semiconductors
Stride (LRN)... online education
AT&T (T)... telecom
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)... casinos and resorts
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)... live events
Celsius (CELH)... beverages
Ryder System (R)... logistics
Barrick Mining (B)... gold miner
Sandstorm Gold (SAND)... royalty and streaming
Bloom Energy (BE)... clean energy

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Unity (UNIT)... telecom
Chime Financial (CHYM)... fintech

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

Why This Time Is Different

Trump 2.0 isn’t just a repeat of 2017. It’s something entirely new – and potentially much bigger. This time, his agenda brings together tax cuts, tariffs, and massive federal spending in a way that could rival the Reagan boom.

Consider what’s already on the table:

Reshoring trillions – Trump is pushing sweeping programs to bring supply chains and manufacturing back to U.S. soil. Some estimates say as much as $10 trillion in onshoring deals have already been announced – that’s a lot of factories, equipment, and jobs returning from overseas.

Tariffs as revenue engines – Far from symbolic, the tariffs are already channeling billions of dollars into government coffers. Some estimates say they could generate around $2.8 trillion through 2034, which could help ease our spiraling national debt, create fiscal firepower for new spending, or be used to funnel money directly into taxpayers’ pockets.

If the Congressional Budget Office’s projection of $4 trillion over 10 years is accurate, maybe all three.

Energy dominance – Deals to expand domestic oil, gas, and alternative energy projects could reshape America’s energy landscape, while unlocking fresh opportunities for investors.

Infrastructure on a scale we haven’t seen in decades – Plans in the pipeline dwarf what we saw during President Trump’s first term, with construction, transportation, and defense industries poised to benefit.

Together, these policies are shaping up to create a seismic shift in how money moves through the economy.

Source: Investor Place