US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 25)

Re: US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 23)

Postby winston » Thu Nov 02, 2023 10:45 am

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks at a press conference in Washington

by Michael S. Derby

Sees no reason to change the current drawdown of the central bank's still-massive balance sheet.

When it comes to rate rises the central bank is probably "close to the end of the cycle.

A potential end to rate hikes has fueled a debate on whether the Fed should also consider winding down the process of allowing just shy of $100 billion per month in Treasury and mortgage bonds it owns to mature and not be replaced.

The Fed is trying to reduce the size of its holdings to withdraw the liquidity it added during the coronavirus pandemic crisis, which caused the size of Fed holdings to more than double to a peak of just shy of $9 trillion last summer.

Rapid decline in the Fed's reverse repo facility, which allows money market funds and others to park cash at the Fed.

This Fed tool is viewed as a proxy for excess and easy to remove liquidity and it has fallen rapidly over recent weeks. After an extended stay of over $2 trillion per day in inflows, it's been hovering just above $1 trillion in recent days.

The balance sheet run-off can run for an additional year and a half to two years.


Source: Reuters

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-pow ... 33430.html
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Re: US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 23)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Nov 10, 2023 1:39 pm

Hawkish Powell using the words "Keep at it" again.
https://twitter.com/mikepsilva/status/1 ... 3764148229
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Re: US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 23)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Nov 24, 2023 5:17 pm

'Hawkish' FOMC Minutes: Warn On Fading Consumer, Financial System Stability Risks
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-minutes-6


I'm the first one to question the economic forecasts that underpin the Fed's rate assumptions. However, it's amazing how US markets keep pricing cuts
https://twitter.com/JulianMI2/status/17 ... 0747983148
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Re: US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 23)

Postby behappyalways » Mon Dec 04, 2023 11:23 pm

November saw the largest easing in US financial conditions of any single month in the past forty years!
https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/ ... 7712251264


Will be quite interesting to see what the Fed has to say about the path of rates in December
https://twitter.com/Mayhem4Markets/stat ... 0749629771
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Re: US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 23)

Postby winston » Fri Dec 15, 2023 2:23 pm

The key takeaways from Wednesday's Fed meeting

1) They are estimating 3 rate cuts next year (presumably 25 basis points each for a total of 75 basis points), which is 1 more rate cut than their previous estimate.

In fact, they see 3 rate cuts in 2024; 4 rate cuts in 2025; and 3 rate cuts in 2026. That would put the Fed Funds midpoint at 4.63% in 2024; 3.63% in 2025; and 2.88% in 2026. (Currently it's at 5.38%.)

2) They estimate inflation (currently at 3.5% y/y), will end under 3% by year's end. They expect it to fall to 2.4% in 2024; 2.1% in 2025, and 2.0% in 2026.

3) They expect GDP to finish at 2.6% for the year in 2023; 1.4% in 2024; and then 1.8% in 2025.

4) And they expect the unemployment rate, currently at 3.7%, to rise to 4.1% in 2024 and 2025.

Source: Zack's
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Re: US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 23)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Dec 22, 2023 11:12 am

Yes. One can see the abrupt change in Powell's stance...or that he sees something that no one sees



Biden Pressures The Allegedly Independent Fed To Stop Rate-Hikes
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bid ... rate-hikes
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Re: US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 23)

Postby behappyalways » Sat Dec 23, 2023 3:14 pm

Is the Federal Reserve hinting that it will cut interest rates next year just to save Biden’s election? Can I still buy U.S. bonds?
聯準會暗示明年降息只為救拜登選情?美債還可以買嗎?陳鳳馨分析【Yahoo TV】#風向龍鳳配
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sX4gAjgjkjE

behappyalways wrote:Yes. One can see the abrupt change in Powell's stance...or that he sees something that no one sees

Biden Pressures The Allegedly Independent Fed To Stop Rate-Hikes
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/bid ... rate-hikes
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Re: US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 23)

Postby behappyalways » Fri Dec 29, 2023 5:42 pm

Pt.1 The U.S. Federal Reserve’s “political interest rate cut”!

23.12.19【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.1 美國聯準會「政治性降息」!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=B01xPVWHEVM
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Re: US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 23)

Postby behappyalways » Tue Jan 16, 2024 3:16 pm

Can the United States really have a soft landing? It's hard!

'24.01.09【豐富│東南西北龍鳳配】Pt.2 美國真能軟著陸嗎?很難!

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=51xqUgNZ4DI
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Re: US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 23)

Postby winston » Thu Feb 01, 2024 9:21 am

Powell Does Not Think US Fed Would Cut Interest Rates in Mar, Given Uncertainty Ahead

US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that the policy rate is probably at the high end of the current cycle, and that if the economy develops as expected, it would be appropriate for the Fed to cut rates at some point this year.

There was no suggestion of a rate cut at the current monetary policy meeting. He also did not think it was likely that the Fed would cut rates in March, and that the ultimate action would depend on how the economy developed.

Powell added that the US economy was making good progress, with inflation coming down from its highs and no sign of rising unemployment. However, he felt that inflation was still too high to guarantee sustained progress in lowering it.

With uncertainty ahead, the Fed would be prepared to leave policy rates unchanged for a longer period of time if conditions were favourable, Powell remarked.

Related News: ADP Employment Change in United States for Jan is 107K, Below Forecast

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN
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