US - Fed 04 (Apr 21 - Dec 25)

[winston]

Fed on track to shed US$1 trillion holdings

The US Federal Reserve's balance sheet has contracted by nearly US$1 trillion (HK$7.8 trillion) in the last two months, and further reductions are expected to hit the markets, according to the Financial Times.

Data show that the Fed's portfolio had shrunk by US$0.98 trillion as of August 9 from its peak of US$8.55 trillion last May.

And analysis suggests that the reduction is expected to exceed US$1 trillion by the end of August, the report said.

Meanwhile, Fed's goal is to shrink another US$1.5 trillion from its balance sheet by mid-2025, a time when the US government is dramatically increasing the size of the debt it issues and demand from foreign investors is weakening, which could push up the cost of borrowing for both the government and corporations, it said.

The report added that more market volatility is expected in September and October, citing traders.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/section- ... n-holdings

[behappyalways]

FOMC Minutes Signal Hawkish Fed Fears "Significant Upside Risks To Inflation"
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc- ... -inflation

[behappyalways]

Fed Warns Consumers Will Deplete Excess Savings By End Q3
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fed-w ... uarter-end

[winston]

Jackson Hole Preview

The Federal Reserve's Economic Policy Symposium will take place in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, from August 24-26.

The topic of this year's retreat to the Tetons is "Structural Shifts in the Global Economy."

All eyes will be on how Fed officials react to the strength of the economy and potential inflation risks just a few weeks ahead of the September meeting.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to deliver an update that relies heavily on recent data, including the recent CPI numbers and core PCE inflation report.

Powell is expected to highlight some of the progress made in combating inflation, but stay on script with his most recent commentary about the need to stay vigilant.

UBS thinks Powell leaves enough of a hawkish edge that the door remains open to more rate hikes, even though the firm is confident he will stop well short of putting an interest rate hike on the table for September.

Bank of America said Powell is likely to reiterate the Fed's commitment to its 2% inflation target and to push back - implicitly or explicitly - against the degree of rate hikes that markets are pricing for next year.

BofA said it would be surprised to see any large shift in Fed communications around the neutral rate at Jackson Hole, given that there is significant uncertainty around estimates of this rate.

If the Fed were to signal expectations for a higher neutral rate, it would likely be interpreted by the market as hawkish since it implies higher overnight rates to slow the economy.

Source: Seeking Alpha

[behappyalways]

Markets weren’t expecting a September rate hike, and Powell didn't try to change those expectations
https://twitter.com/NickTimiraos/status ... 5950995531


"We'll KEEP AT IT until the job is done."
https://twitter.com/JackFarley96/status ... 0699981023

[behappyalways]

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, Signals Much More Hawkish 2024
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-9



The dot plot is interesting with one more hike projected for 2023.
https://twitter.com/AyeshaTariq/status/ ... 4364830069

[behappyalways]

For The First Time In 13 Years, The Fed Is Cutting Workers As It Books $100 Billion In Losses
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/first ... ion-losses

[behappyalways]

Felix responds to potential Fed QE question during client webinar on September 6, 2023
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LuG32PDRdQE

[behappyalways]

Powell Signals December Rate Hike Unlikely
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/powel ... e-unlikely

[winston]

The Fed won’t be cutting rates until late 2024 ?

The shocking statement [last Friday] came from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who basically said the Fed won’t be cutting rates until late 2024…

If the Fed is smart, they’re going to be cutting rates next year. And they ought to because they’re killing the economy.

The question is how many industries they need to kill.

Source: Investor Place