US - Market Strategy 03 (Jan 24 - Dec 26)

[behappyalways]

Shocking
https://x.com/AyeshaTariq/status/1955647229710217704

[winston]

How investors should be thinking as the stock market nears a P/E ratio of 30—a number that spelled disaster before the dotcom crash

By Shawn Tully

On the macro scene, the danger signs are multiplying. The latest employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics disclosed that the U.S. added a meager 73,000 jobs in July, and revised the May and June figures radically downward.

GDP growth has also proved disappointing, clocking far below the Trump administration’s highly aspirational target of 3%. The economy expanded at an annualized clip of just 1.75% through the first half of 2025,

On the inflation front, it appears that the Trump tariffs are finally starting to bite.

The residential real estate market, for both sales and construction, remains stymied by a combination of record housing prices and mortgage rates hovering at roughly 6.7%, twice the cost three and a half years ago.

It’s also cautionary that the P/E struck 30 only during just one period between 1888, where the data begins, and the start of the dotcom takeoff in 1998. The landmark we’ve just seen repeated occurred in 1929, shortly prior to the wipeout ushering in the Great Depression.

Source: Fortune

https://fortune.com/2025/08/16/stock-ma ... d=15883112

[behappyalways]

It's different this time . . .
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1956838222723477938

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Goldman Sachs (GS)... financial giant
Deutsche Bank (DB)... financial services
Royal Bank of Canada (RY)... financial services
Banco Santander (SAN)... Spanish bank
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)... health titan
Sony (SONY)... gadgets and entertainment
eBay (EBAY)... online marketplace
Meta Platforms (META)... social media giant
Reddit (RDDT)... social media
Wayfair (W)... home goods
Hasbro (HAS)... toys
Celsius (CELH)... beverages
Loews (L)... hotels
New Gold (NGD)... gold

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Alight (ALIT)... information technology and consulting
Globant (GLOB)... software
Nomad Foods (NOMD)... frozen food

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Deutsche Bank (DB)... financial services
UBS (UBS)... Swiss bank
Mastercard (MA)... credit cards
Rhythm Pharmaceuticals (RYTM)... biopharmaceuticals
Madrigal Pharmaceuticals (MDGL)... biopharmaceuticals
Analog Devices (ADI)... semiconductors
Stride (LRN)... online education
AT&T (T)... telecom
Wynn Resorts (WYNN)... casinos and resorts
Live Nation Entertainment (LYV)... live events
Celsius (CELH)... beverages
Ryder System (R)... logistics
Barrick Mining (B)... gold miner
Sandstorm Gold (SAND)... royalty and streaming
Bloom Energy (BE)... clean energy

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Unity (UNIT)... telecom
Chime Financial (CHYM)... fintech

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

Why This Time Is Different

Trump 2.0 isn’t just a repeat of 2017. It’s something entirely new – and potentially much bigger. This time, his agenda brings together tax cuts, tariffs, and massive federal spending in a way that could rival the Reagan boom.

Consider what’s already on the table:

Reshoring trillions – Trump is pushing sweeping programs to bring supply chains and manufacturing back to U.S. soil. Some estimates say as much as $10 trillion in onshoring deals have already been announced – that’s a lot of factories, equipment, and jobs returning from overseas.

Tariffs as revenue engines – Far from symbolic, the tariffs are already channeling billions of dollars into government coffers. Some estimates say they could generate around $2.8 trillion through 2034, which could help ease our spiraling national debt, create fiscal firepower for new spending, or be used to funnel money directly into taxpayers’ pockets.

If the Congressional Budget Office’s projection of $4 trillion over 10 years is accurate, maybe all three.

Energy dominance – Deals to expand domestic oil, gas, and alternative energy projects could reshape America’s energy landscape, while unlocking fresh opportunities for investors.

Infrastructure on a scale we haven’t seen in decades – Plans in the pipeline dwarf what we saw during President Trump’s first term, with construction, transportation, and defense industries poised to benefit.

Together, these policies are shaping up to create a seismic shift in how money moves through the economy.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

HIGHS AND LOWS

NEW HIGHS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Interactive Brokers (IBKR)... online brokerage
Robinhood Markets (HOOD)... stock-trading app
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)... health titan
AstraZeneca (AZN)... pharmaceuticals
Intel (INTC)... chipmaker
Garmin (GRMN)... GPS technology
Ciena (CIEN)... telecom equipment
CVS Health (CVS)... drugstores and vaccines
Five Below (FIVE)... discount retail
Levi Strauss (LEVI)... jeans
Monster Beverage (MNST)... energy drinks
Loews (L)... hotels
Caterpillar (CAT)... heavy machinery
Cummins (CMI)... diesel engines
Constellation Energy (CEG)... utilities
Coeur Mining (CDE)... precious metals
Elbit Systems (ESLT)... "offense" contractor
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS)... "offense" contractor
General Dynamics (GD)... defense contractor

NEW LOWS OF NOTE LAST WEEK

Morningstar (MORN)... financial services
FactSet Research Systems (FDS)... financial data
Sprouts Farmers Market (SFM)... grocery stores
Colgate-Palmolive (CL)... personal-care products

Source: Daily Wealth

[winston]

Bubble scenario could take S&P 500 to 9,000 in 2026: Evercore’s Emanuel

by Sam Boughedda

Evercore ISI reiterated its year-end 2026 price target of 7,750 for the S&P 500 and raised the probability of a bubble scenario to 30%.

Strategically, Emanuel advised investors to maintain exposure to “AI Enablers, Adopters and Adapters” in the communication services, consumer discretionary, and information technology sectors, while hedging positions through Nasdaq put options.

The analyst also highlighted health care as a tactical opportunity, calling it “underowned” but now benefiting from easing policy and tariff concerns.

Source: investing.com

https://www.investing.com/news/stock-ma ... el-4272631

[winston]

<Research>G Sachs: Stock Mkt Not in Bubble Yet; Machine Learning/ AI Expected to Spawn New Wave of Superstars

The equity bull market and the continued rise in leading technology firms, have led many to worry about being in a bubble, according to Goldman Sachs' research report.

History suggests that bubbles are usually driven by enthusiasm surrounding transformative technologies, attracting investors, capital and new entrants.

Typical bubble characteristics include rapid asset price hike, extreme valuations and significant systemic risks, triggered by increased leverage.

The median forward 24-month PE ratio for the Magnificent 7, including Apple (AAPL.US), Microsoft (MSFT.US), Alphabet (GOOGL.US), Tesla (TSLA.US), Meta (META.US), Nvidia (NVDA.US) and Amazon.com (AMZN.US)is 27x, or 26x if Tesla, which has a valuation much higher than others, is excluded, Goldman Sachs said.

Leading tech giants of the 2020s are likely to continue dominating their respective fields but rapid innovation, especially around machine learning and AI, is expected to spawn a new wave of tech superstars, launching new products and services on the back of the current capital expenditure boom.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

Lower Interest Rates Could Soon Turn This Bull Market into a Full-Blown Melt Up

by Brett Eversole

This cycle has repeated throughout history…
1. A small problem snowballs into a crisis…
2. The crisis triggers a major policy response…
3. Easy money sets the stage for a market mania.
It happened in 1998 with the dot-com boom… It happened again during the COVID-19 pandemic…

And it appears to be happening again today, even without a crisis.

Many investors are looking for reasons to worry. They’re practically begging for a reason to sell. But the biggest risk today might be owning too few stocks.

Lower interest rates could soon turn this bull market into a full-blown Melt Up. Make sure you’re positioned to profit when that happens.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2025/10/10/ ... n-melt-up/