by winston » Thu Aug 06, 2026 11:01 am
Congress Just Advanced a Major Russia Sanctions Bill. Here’s Why It Probably Won’t Change the War.
A bipartisan Senate vote advanced the Graham Act — a sweeping bill authorizing 500% tariffs on Russian goods and 100% tariffs on the five largest buyers of Russian oil, including China and India.
The bill’s broad presidential waivers, Trump’s hesitance to enforce it, and resistance from Beijing and New Delhi mean the real-world impact could be minimal.
Why Trump is unlikely to impose meaningful tariffs on China and India
How Russia’s shadow fleet and Treasury Department staffing cuts weaken enforcement
What the bill’s sanctions-relief-for-peace clause actually means
Which House Democratic objections could narrow the bill further
The stakes are enormous: Russian oil exports are still flowing, Ukraine’s drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are accelerating, and Putin shows no signs of serious negotiation.
The Graham Act could become meaningful leverage for a peace deal or it could become yet another tool the White House uses selectively to manage optics rather than change outcomes on the ground.
Source: RANE Worldview
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"