Europe - Economic Data & News 01 (May 08 - Oct 08)

[kennynah]

yes...indeed...it is PPP at work...

[kennynah]

just when everyone wrote them off.... she performs magic to a sleepy crowd...

German June Trade Surplus Increases More Than Expected
8/7/2008 2:37 AM ET

(RTTNews) - Thursday, the Federal Statistical Office reported that the German trade surplus increased to EUR19.7 billion in June from EUR14.3 billion recorded in May. The trade surplus stood above the expected level of EUR15.5 billion. The trade surplus for May was revised down from EUR14.4 billion reported earlier.

Upon calendar and seasonal adjustment, the foreign trade balance showed a surplus of EUR18.1 billion. On a monthly basis, exports moved up 4.2%, reversing a revised fall of 3.4% in May. At the same time, imports dropped 0.1%, following a revised 0.5% growth in May. Economists were looking for a monthly growth of 1.8% for both imports and exports.

According to the statistical office, exports grew 7.9% annually to EUR88.3 billion, while imports climbed at a slower pace of 5.3% to reach EUR68.6 billion.

Further, the current account surplus totaled EUR18.5 billion, larger than the EUR18.1 billion registered during the same period of last year. In May, the current account surplus totaled EUR7.7 billion. Economists had expected a surplus of EUR12 billion for June.

[blid2def]

Easy lor... just lower their expectations / estimates, then will meet or surpass lor.

[kennynah]

German Industrial Production Recovers In June
8/7/2008 6:19 AM ET

(RTTNews) - German industrial production grew 0.2% in June from the prior month, following a revised decline of 1.8% in May, the Federal Ministry of Economics and Technology reported Thursday. However, output grew less than 0.8% expected by economists.

Industrial production recorded an annual growth of 4.1%, reversing a 1.1% fall in May. On a working day adjusted basis, production climbed 1.7%, larger than the 1.1% recorded in the previous month.

[kennynah]

one obtuse man...

**************

Trichet Sees Downside Risks To EU Growth But Insists Primary Focus On Price Stability
8/7/2008 9:27 AM ET

(RTTNews) - European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet offered remarks accompanying the ECB's decision to maintain its key overnight call rate Thursday, noting that the latest data underpinned July's rate hike.

However, Trichet also signaled that the ECB is concerned about downside risks to economic growth, noting that data since the July press conference suggests that real GDP growth figures for mid-2008 will be substantially weaker than for the first quarter of the year.

"Uncertainty surrounding this outlook for economic activity remains high, owing to, among other things, the very high and volatile levels of commodity prices and the ongoing tensions in financial markets. Overall, downside risks prevail."

Insisting that a weakening of real GDP growth in mid-2008 was expected after strong growth in the first quarter, Trichet emphasized that maintaining price stability in the medium term is the primary objective of the ECB.

Keeping his focus on inflation, Trichet said that risks to price stability remain to the upside.

The latest information available to the ECB "has confirmed that annual inflation rates are likely to remain well above levels consistent with price stability for a protracted period of time and that risks to price stability over the medium term remain on the upside," said Trichet in his introductory statement.

((truncated))

[millionairemind]

Trichet is probably going to crash the Eurozone and plunge it into a recession..

Interesting article written in today's Telegraph.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j ... sis110.xml

Joseph Stiglitz wrote a paper on the errors of the central banks to include just plain inflation targeting.

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/stiglitz99

Joe wrote 2 books - Globalization and its discontent and Making Globalization Work which I tot was very well-written

[millionairemind]

Looks like countries in Eurozone are crapping out one after another.....Trichet will be the culprit responsible to bring about this..

German Economy Contracts for First Time in Four Years (Update2)

By Christian Vits

Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- The German economy, Europe's largest, contracted for the first time in almost four years in the second quarter, led by a slump in construction.

Gross domestic product fell a seasonally adjusted 0.5 percent from the first quarter, when it rose a revised 1.3 percent, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said today. Economists expected a 0.8 percent decline, the median of 41 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey showed. In the year, the economy grew 1.7 percent when adjusted for the number of working days.

The stronger euro and slower global growth have damped demand for German exports just as faster inflation erodes domestic spending power. The second-quarter contraction was exacerbated by companies bringing forward investment in construction due to unusually mild weather in the first three months of the year.

Full story
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

[millionairemind]

European Economy Shrinks 0.2% as Spending, Investment Falter

By Fergal O'Brien and Christian Vits

Aug. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Europe's economy contracted in the second quarter for the first time since the launch of the euro almost a decade ago as faltering sales undermined investment by companies and soaring costs eroded consumer spending power.
Gross domestic product fell 0.2 percent from the first quarter, when it rose 0.7 percent, the European Union statistics office in Luxembourg said today. The year-on-year growth rate slowed for a third straight quarter, to 1.5 percent. Separate figures showed inflation held at 4 percent in July, less than initially estimated.

The stronger euro and slower global growth have damped euro-area exports just as the fastest inflation in 16 years erodes domestic purchasing power. Confidence in Europe's economy has fallen to the lowest in almost 15 years and European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet last week said growth will be ``particularly weak'' through the third quarter.

``One cannot talk about a soft landing of the euro-zone economy,'' said Joerg Kraemer, chief economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. ``This is a cyclical downturn, which tends to be a long haul.''

full story
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... refer=home

[kennynah]

there goes the euro....and can only mean a strengthening of usd...but the strengthening of the usd is not strongly supported in the long run, not until US economy begins to show strength....so such relative usd strength must not be mistaken as being caused by fundamentals.

[millionairemind]

And it gets worse

Savills: Residential building land value drops 20pc
By Jonathan Russell
Last Updated: 11:07pm BST 17/08/2008

Residential building land, one of the core assets of most housebuilders, plummeted in value by 20pc in the first six months of the year and could fall by up to 50pc before the current slump is over.

Research by estate agent Savills shows the value of brownfield sites, down 19.8pc, and greenfield sites, down 22.5pc, fell by roughly four times the rate of the housing market as investors deserted the sector.

With development land a key part of most housebuilders' asset bases, the valuations will be a major concern for the struggling sector.

Full story
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/main.j ... and118.xml