not vested
Tesla - Stock Analyst Research
Target Price* 215.00
Recommendation SELL
Tesla Inc. – All-in on autonomous vehicles and robotics4Q25 results were above our expectations.
FY25 revenue/adj. PATMI was at 109%/111% of our FY25e forecasts, driven by higher-than-expected auto gross margins.
Adj. PATMI (excl. stock-based compensation, “SBC”) fell 16% due to a decline in vehicle deliveries, lower regulatory credit revenue, and higher OPEX from AI and R&D projects.
418k deliveries (-16% YoY), a record YoY decline from the removal of the US$7,500 EV tax credit.
Gross margins improved by 3.8% points YoY and 2.1% points QoQ.
ASPs rose by 6% YoY as selling prices of EVs rose with the removal of the EV tax credit, while auto revenue declined by 11% YoY from lowered demand due to the higher prices.
We maintain our SELL recommendation and a lower DCF target price of US$215 (prev. US$220) as we roll over our valuations to FY26e.
We lower FY26e earnings by ~29% as we lower auto revenue and raise OPEX estimates.
We expect auto deliveries to continue declining in FY26e due to the removal of the US$7,500 EV tax credit in the US.
Our WACC/growth rate assumptions of 9%/5% remain unchanged. We remain cautious on TSLA. It faces multiple headwinds, including tariffs, loss of tax credits, and a decline in market share in China.
Significant revenue contribution from multi-year initiatives (FSD, Robotaxi, Optimus robot) is still far out (>5 years), and steep valuations of ~360x PE FY26e suggest this has already been priced in.
Source: Phillips
https://www.poems.com.sg/stock-research/TSLA/
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