How $UNH makes money
https://x.com/Mayhem4Markets/status/1883548663617822787
Rising medical costs.
Cramer: At $400, I would indeed start a position. I have been very negative on UnitedHealth Group Inc (NYSE:UNH) from 6:30 down to this caller right here. I would start a position at 400 bucks. That’s a big change for me.
Parnassus Growth Equity: UnitedHealth’s business model is becoming higher-risk, which coupled with slowing Medicare Advantage growth and regulatory uncertainty led to us exiting the position.
Key Points
UnitedHealth Group announced a surprise CEO transition on May 13.
Shares of the integrated health insurance business are down by more than half from the all-time high it reached last year.
UnitedHealth Group misjudged utilization trends in 2025, but this doesn't seem like a problem it can't solve in 2026.
When UnitedHealth Group reported first-quarter results on April 17, management adjusted its 2025 earnings outlook from a range between $28.15 and $28.65 per share down to a range between $24.65 and $25.25 per share.
Main issues that are squeezing profit margins.
First, the health status of new members isn't as robust as hoped.
It mis-priced premiums for 2025, but its customers can expect a bigger monthly bill in 2026. Management is already incorporating the higher costs it's been experiencing into 2026 Medicare Advantage bids that are due in June.
In 2023, United Health's Optum Health employed around 10% of America's physicians. It's likely the largest employer of physicians in the country.
Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services published its 2027 advance rate notice, revealing a near-flat 0.09% expected average change in revenue—a dramatic decline from approximately 5% in 2026.
“These rates are nowhere near sufficient to cover what are rising cost trends, noting that utilization and unit costs are growing at high single-digit to potentially double-digit rates year over year.
Medicare business, which represents approximately two-thirds of the company’s premium revenue across Medicare Advantage, DSNP, standalone Part D, and MedSup products.
If rates remain insufficient, she expects MAOs to continue paring back benefits and pulling out of certain geographies—marking the second consecutive year of such industry-wide contraction.
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