Grab

[winston]

not vested

Citi Cuts Grab Holdings Limited (GRAB.US) TP to USD6.4, Maintains Buy

Citi issued a research report stating that Grab Holdings Limited (GRAB.US) delivered better-than-expected results for 1Q.

Revenue rose 24% YoY to USD955 million, while group EBITDA reached USD154 million, mainly driven by solid on-demand GMV growth and better-than-expected EBITDA margin in the mobility segment.

Management is prudently addressing headwinds in the mobility business and indicated that the impact of Indonesia's 8% commission cap is manageable.

Transaction volume increased 32% YoY, demonstrating resilient demand. In addition, proactive support measures are expected to mitigate fuel cost pressures arising from the Middle East conflict.

Following the results, the broker adjusted its earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2028 to USD437 million, USD509 million and USD631 million, respectively.

It lowered the TP from USD7.2 to USD6.4 and maintained the Buy rating, citing confidence in the company's solid execution capabilities and its leading applications in AI and autonomous driving.

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

Grab should consider a Singapore dual listing on SGX

Beyond an uplift to investor recognition, the company could also benefit from EQDP funds

by Benjamin Cher

Grab’s market capitalisation of US$15 billion is about a tenth of Uber’s US$155 billion.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... isting-sgx

[winston]

vested

Grab Holdings Faces Hurdles, But Upside Potential Is Hard to Ignore

by Thomas Hughes

Grab Holdings is on track to unlock value as it expands and improves profitability with scale.
Buybacks highlight management's confidence in the outlook.
Indonesian regulation changes have a limited impact on the business.

Grab Holdings’ (NASDAQ: GRAB) biggest challenge this year is investor perception. On one hand, its dominance in Indonesia is being tested by regulatory changes. On the other, the stop-and-start negotiations with GoTo have the market on edge.

In the first case, a cap on commissions in its largest market is forcing a business reset. In the second, Grab stands to benefit either way. A merger would create a ride-hailing giant but it would also face significant obstacles, including the possibility of divestitures.

The combined company would command roughly 90% of Indonesia’s ride-sharing market, which appears unlikely given the government’s stance. Regulators are concerned about the impact on drivers, which would be substantial.

The impact of Indonesia’s regulatory change will be felt, but executives say it should be minimal, affecting only a small portion of the company’s overall business, if at all. As it stands, two-wheel transportation, including motorbikes, is the primary target of the regulation, and those services account for less than 6% of Grab's total volume.

The caveat is that capping commissions effectively increases driver pay and may reduce the need for incentives. Even so, the impact should be both limited and short-lived.

Grab Trades at Rock Bottom Pricing

Grab stock is not cheap today, trading at nearly 40X its current-year earnings forecast but it looks deeply undervalued relative to forward estimates.

Reliable forecasts put the stock at just 18X earnings by 2028, with the potential for that metric to fall into the low single digits by mid-2035.

The main constraint is time, but the recent Q1 2026 results suggest the company is on track to meet its goals. Assuming Grab grows in line with its outlook and reaches a 22X valuation in 2035, in line with the broad market average, the stock would be worth more than $30 per share based on forward earnings, representing about 1,000% upside from current levels.

Institutional investors own more than 55% of the stock, have accumulated shares for more than two years, and increased activity sequentially in 2025 and again in Q1.

Early Q2 institutional activity shows some slowing, but sentiment remains bullish, underscoring the value on offer. The likely outcome is that institutions will continue to accumulate the stock, limiting downside risk in 2026.

The chart price action suggests a bottom may be forming. Support is evident near $3.50, matching the lows set in 2025 and reinforced by the indicators.

MACD momentum and stochastic oscillators indicate the market is in the midst of a shift; the question is whether that shift is from a downtrend to a range-bound phase or to a rebound.

Grab Holdings’ Business Is Booming, Hurdles or Not

Grab Holding’s business is thriving. Q1 revenue grew 24% to $955 million, beating the consensus by nearly 400 basis points, driven by strength in on-demand and financial services.

Delivery revenue grew 22% on a 24% increase in gross merchandise volume, supported by a 7% increase in volume per user.

Mobility was also strong, up 19%, as was the Financial segment, which increased by more than 100%.

Margins were a standout detail. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 46%, providing evidence of improving profitability at scale. That improvement was also reflected in free cash flow, which rose to $489 million on a trailing 12-month basis, up 68% from the prior quarter, and is expected to remain strong through year-end.

Guidance was left unchanged, with revenue expected to grow in the low-20% range and adjusted EBITDA projected to increase by approximately 42%.

Evidence of management’s confidence in the outlook can be seen in the capital return program. The company initiated an accelerated share repurchase earlier this year and is on track to return as much as $400 million to investors by year-end. Grab’s biggest risk is competition, but it is managing that risk well.

Source: Market Beat

[winston]

vested

Evaluating Grab Holdings (NasdaqGS:GRAB) After Robust Q1 Results And Trimmed Analyst Price Targets

Result: Fair Value of $10.13 (UNDERVALUED)

Grab trades on a P/E of 36.7x, slightly above the peer average of 36.4x and well above its fair ratio of 26.3x, which points to valuation risk if expectations reset.

Source: Simply Wall St

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 04722.html

[winston]

not vested

The fintech inflection begins

2Q26F preview: we expect resilient EBITDA of S$158m (+45% yoy), still led by on-demand GMV growth and loan book growth.

FS segment is the key rising star from 2HFY26F, in our view, supported by Super Bank consolidation and Stash acquisition (pending approval).

Commission rate cap for 2W in Indonesia has been finalised, removing a key overhang.

Retain Add as we expect 38% FY27F EBITDA growth.

TP: US$4.50

Source: CGS

https://rfs.cgsi.com/api/download?file= ... 85DD92840C

[winston]

Uber-Delivery Hero: a new overhang for Grab

Uber's return to ASEAN could reshape competition

Uber's proposed USD15b acquisition of Delivery Hero could mark its return to ASEAN 8 years after its exit from the region.

While regulatory approval is one hurdle, we believe the bigger question is whether Uber intends to rebuild a long-term operating presence in ASEAN. Several aspects of the transaction suggest that it does.

Most notably, despite the existing noncompete agreement with Grab, Uber excluded Foodpanda's ASEAN operations from the SSW Partners divestment, even though the business is worth just c. USD1b within a USD15b transaction.

In our view, this suggests Uber deliberately preserved its strategic optionality, making the acquisition more than just a food delivery deal — it could ultimately reshape competition across ASEAN's on-demand services landscape.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/547143.pdf

[winston]

vested

Grab reports US$252 million in Q2 earnings, raises guidance for 2026

Company also reaches a record 54 million monthly transacting users in the quarter, says group CEO Anthony Tan

by Benjamin Cher

Grab announced a profit of US$252 million for the second quarter of 2026, a 620 per cent increase from US$35 million in Q2 2025.

Revenue for Q2 rose 22 per cent on the year to US$997 million from US$819 million.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... dance-2026

[winston]

not vested

Resilient execution, buybacks but Uber re-entry a watchpoint

Retain BUY but Uber remains key debate

We maintain our BUY on Grab.

We raise FY26–28 adjusted EBITDA by 3–5% and NPAT by 3–13%, reflecting stronger Deliveries assumptions and the consolidation of Stash and Superbank.

However, we trim our SoTP-based TP to USD5.40 (from USD6.25) after migrating our On-Demand valuation methodology from EV/Sales to EV/EBITDA, benchmarked against global peers.

Following a 28% YTD share price correction, we believe Grab offers an attractive risk-reward given resilient earnings growth despite softer macro conditions, although Uber's proposed Delivery Hero acquisition remains the key medium-term watchpoint.

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/551292.pdf

[winston]

vested

Atome: paying up for the next growth engine

Atome valuation leaves little room for error Grab’s USD1.49bn acquisition of a 60% stake in Atome marks its largest financial services transaction to date.

Based on Grab’s targets, we estimate Atome could contribute c.USD200m–220m of EBITDA by 2028, implying c.12x FY28 EV/EBITDA based on our estimated ultimate consideration.

This is well above the c.7x paid for Stash and most fintech peers, but broadly comparable with Affirm at 12.6x and below PayTM at 30x.

We view the valuation as full rather than excessive. Importantly, the premium valuation requires Grab to successfully leverage Atome’s underwriting technology, merchant relationships, and consumer-lending infrastructure across its much larger ecosystem.

TP: US$5.40

Source: Maybank

https://mkefactsettd.maybank-ke.com/PDFS/562554.pdf