InvestIdeas

“The three fundamental risks that we see for the US economy for 2026. . .. There are two internal risks and one external risk.

The first risk is US housing crisis/white swan event. Immigrants came in and filled the gap. That’s now stopped. . .. Deportations are going to continue over the next year to two years, and that is going to continue to put pressure on homes. Affordability is a disaster. Incomes do not allow people to buy homes at these prices. The only way to correct this is home prices dropping 25% to 30% over the next two years. That would set us up for a recovery.”

“The second risk to the US economy is a stock market bubble. The valuations are as bad as the Dot Com bubble. We expect that to pop sometime this year.

The third risk is China. It is entering into the acute phase of its economic crisis. This is going to be a global contagion. It will hurt Japan and South Korea, and this will spill over to the US. . .. It will be a liquidity crisis, and that is why we are bullish on the US dollar.”