Jeffrey Gundlach (DoubleLine Capital)

[behappyalways]

US economy will 'hit a wall' by the spring – and inflation could spike again, warns 'bond king' Jeffrey Gundlach
https://www.businessinsider.com/jeffrey ... ing-2023-9

[behappyalways]

"It's Sad" - Jeff Gundlach Laments Former Bond King's Bellicose Rant
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-s ... icose-rant

[winston]

'Bond King' Jeffrey Gundlach warns of 'demons on the horizon' for stocks - and predicts a dollar disaster and recession next year

by Theron Mohamed

Stock investors aren't paying attention to "demons on the horizon," Jeffrey Gundlach says.

The DoubleLine Capital boss sees a recession next year as companies and consumers feel the squeeze.

Gundlach warns that government spending during the next downturn could devastate the US dollar.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bond-kin ... 31877.html

[winston]

Economic pain resulting in a bond bull market?

I do think rates are going to fall as we move into a recession in the first part of next year…

I really believe that layoffs are coming. We’ve seen hiring freezes, and now we’re starting to see layoff announcements ... they’re out there [for] financial firms and technology firms, and I believe that’s going to spread.

Source: Investor Place

[winston]

Stocks are as overvalued as they were at the start of the 2022 bear market, 'Bond King' Jeff Gundlach says

by Filip De Mott

Stocks are as overvalued now as they were in early 2022, Jeffrey Gundlach told CNBC.

The new highs resulted from rate cut expectations, which have been excessive, he said.

He suggested investors turn to credit and cash, making fund available for when stocks cheapen.

Source: Business Insider

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-o ... 59475.html

[behappyalways]

Recession is coming — and a raft of companies will fail, warns elite investor Jeffrey Gundlach
https://www.businessinsider.com/recessi ... tes-2024-5

[behappyalways]

Fed rate cuts are arriving too late and layoffs show the US economy is already in a recession, bond king Jeff Gundlach says
https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rat ... ach-2024-9

[winston]

'New Bond King' Gundlach: USD to Decline Long-Term; Favorable Outlook on Int'l Stock Markets

As the US dollar is now at the beginning of a long-term descension, overseas stock markets will continue to outperform the U.S. stock market, said the "New Bond King", Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine.

If the US dollar falls against other currencies, and international stock markets perform excellently, the dollar investors buying foreign stocks may enjoy double benefits.

Therefore, investing in some emerging market countries is entirely sensible, said the CEO, with a continued preference for India as a long-term holding target. Investing in some Southeast Asian countries, and even Mexico and Latin America, is also a viable option.

Although U.S. inflation is relatively low now, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at next week's meeting, and inflation is expected to reach about 3% by the end of this year.

Source: www.aastocks.com

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

'New Bond King' Gundlach: US LT Bonds No Longer Seen as Safe-Haven Assets

Unlike the pattern over the past 15 years, the US Dollar Index fell instead of rising this time when the S&P 500 saw a correction of more than 10%, said Jeffrey Gundlach, DoubleLine Capital's CEO who is known as the "New Bond King".

In addition, US Treasury yields typically fall when the Fed starts cutting rates, but this time they have risen for a period, with the yield curve becoming steeper, Gundlach added.

In Gundlach's opinion, this situation has reflected the market's realization that the US government's interest payments on debt are unsustainable amid a persistent USD2.1 trillion deficit and continued high interest rates.

Many people haven't realized that the interest rate the US government pays on its debt has risen from 2% in the past to the current 4%.

While the issue of interest payments is building up, Gundlach pointed out that the public is recognizing that long-term US Treasuries are no longer regarded as high-quality safe-haven assets, as evidenced by the lack of response in long-term yields to falling rates and inflation.

Source: AAStocks Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

DoubleLine’s Gundlach warns of fiscal crisis in next recession

By Greg Ritchie & Michael MacKenzie

The next US downturn could trigger a debt crisis that sends long-term Treasury yields sharply higher.

He’s focusing on low-duration assets to shield Doubleline’s funds against further increases in interest rates.

“You would have the budget deficit go easily to 12% of GDP. That would create US$3 trillion of interest expense probably per year, and you just can’t do it.”

We’re in backward land and in the next recession long-term rates are going to go up and they’ll go up because of the debt crisis that it’s going to usher in.

Operation Twist: Federal Reserve would suppress long-end rates while keeping short-end rates elevated. “I think they would do that somewhere around 6.5%”.

Home
DoubleLine’s Gundlach warns of fiscal crisis in next recession
US Economy
DoubleLine’s Gundlach warns of fiscal crisis in next recession
By Greg Ritchie & Michael MacKenzie / Bloomberg
18 Sep 2026, 06:05 am
Google News Preferred Icon
Make The Edge Malaysia your preferred source on Google


main news image
The analyst cited the breakdown of closely-watched market correlations, including the ratio of gold and copper to Treasury yields, since 2020 as evidence of a regime change where the secular direction for interest rates is higher.

(Sept 18): DoubleLine Capital chief executive Jeffrey Gundlach warned that the next US downturn could trigger a debt crisis that sends long-term Treasury yields sharply higher — defying decades of conventional wisdom that bonds will always serve as safe haven during times of economic strife.

Such a scenario could push the Federal Reserve and the Treasury into unconventional policies, such as the central bank buying long-dated bonds in a repeat of Operation Twist, or even a debt restructuring. He said he’s focusing on low-duration assets to shield Doubleline’s funds against further increases in interest rates.

“If there’s a recession, there’s going to be incredible attention paid to the fiscal situation,” he said at an event in New York. “You would have the budget deficit go easily to 12% of GDP. That would create US$3 trillion of interest expense probably per year, and you just can’t do it.”

Gundlach’s views, while extreme, reflect growing investor concerns over the diversification benefits of fixed income, which are traditionally seen as buffering losses from stock portfolios during economic downturns.

In recent years, the inflationary nature of recent shocks has pummelled bonds, sometimes leading them to sell off at the same time as equities. Should the next recession prove similarly inflationary, that would limit the scope for central bankers to stimulate the economy by lowering interest rates.

Gundlach cited the breakdown of closely-watched market correlations, including the ratio of gold and copper to Treasury yields, since 2020 as evidence of a regime change where the secular direction for interest rates is higher. The dollar, meanwhile, doesn’t hold the same inverse relationship to US stocks, he said.

“We’re in backward land and in the next recession long-term rates are going to go up and they’ll go up because of the debt crisis that it’s going to usher in,” he said.

Gundlach founded DoubleLine in 2009 after a contentious exit from TCW, where he’d become a star bond manager. DoubleLine managed US$95 billion in assets and had more than 250 employees as of March.

Gundlach said he is now “a little less negative on the long end” than he was a year ago but remains positioned for yields to ultimately move higher. He sees the potential for greater US policy interventions to cap the bond sell-off should it continue.

One possibility would be a repeat of Operation Twist, in which the Federal Reserve would suppress long-end rates while keeping short-end rates elevated. “I think they would do that somewhere around 6.5%,” he said of the yield level likely to trigger action.

Another option would be a restructuring of Treasury debt — a risk he has warned about before. That would involve cutting coupon payments across outstanding bonds.

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/818467