Oil 13 (Oct 23 - Dec 27)

[behappyalways]

Clearly, Oman is winning
https://x.com/AyeshaTariq/status/2042119062042624479

[behappyalways]

Kuwait declares force majeure on oil shipments on Hormuz halt
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/o ... ormuz-halt


US Treasury Extends Russian Crude Waiver Amid Supply Disruptions
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... isruptions

[winston]

Iran war to keep petrol market tight for two more years: IEA

The agency says this can result in a shortfall of 120 billion cubic metres of LNG between 2026 and 2030

Global supply could be affected till 2028. It cited damage to LNG facilities in Qatar in March and delays to new projects across the Middle East.

Qatar has said that the Iranian strikes in March damaged about 17 per cent of its liquefaction capacity, with repairs potentially taking as long as five years.

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/intern ... -years-iea

[winston]

Geopolitical and Technical Signals Indicate a Break in Energy's Rally

The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (NYSEARCA: XLE) is up nearly 30% year-to-date (YTD), which decades ago might have lifted the entire S&P 500.

The energy sector now represents less than 5% of the cap-weighted index.

Now that a tenuous ceasefire has been reached, the energy sector looks overbought and may lose some of the catalysts that powered its early-2026 gains.

Investors might consider trimming exposure because the sector faces several emerging challenges.

The first challenge is a fading geopolitical risk premium. Even before the ceasefire, the energy rally was showing signs of fatigue. Futures markets imply oil will remain above $90 per barrel through December, reflecting structurally higher fuel and petroleum prices.

Much — though not all — of the upside for oil and gas producers appears priced in, and de-escalation — despite reports of Iran charging tolls for passage through the Strait of Hormuz — removes a significant risk premium, acting as a headwind for prices.

Another headwind is potential demand destruction. West Texas Intermediate futures spiked to about $115 before settling near $95 after the ceasefire announcement.

While consumers obviously prefer $95 oil to $115, that still represents a major jump from prices below $60 at the start of the year. Sustained prices near $100 can compress margins for airlines and transportation companies, and price shocks typically take months to ripple through the broader economy. High prices won’t benefit energy stocks if consumer demand weakens.

Lastly, technicals suggest a rapid loss of bullish momentum. After the XLE reached an RSI of 80, it plunged below 50 in less than two weeks — a large drop in bullish momentum. Some large-cap energy names remain above the 70 overbought threshold, which may warrant profit-taking.

If the price-shock component of the oil rally is ending, it could trigger a sell-off in some overbought energy names.

Source: Market Beat

[winston]

<Commodity> First US Crude Oil Shipment Arrives in Japan After Iran Conflict, Avoiding Strait of Hormuz

An oil tanker carrying US-produced crude oil arrived at Tokyo Bay in Japan yesterday (26th).

According to the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, this marks the first crude oil shipment procured from the United States to reach Japan after the escalation of tensions in the Middle East.

The government and oil distributors are promoting procurement routes that do not pass through the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East, with the United States expected to become one of the key supply sources.

According to Cosmo Energy Holdings, which was responsible for the procurement, the purchased crude oil totaled approximately 145,000 kiloliters, equivalent to about half a day of Japans domestic consumption.

The tanker departed from Texas in the United States on March 22 and transited the Panama Canal, which accommodates smaller tankers, taking 35 days to arrive in Japan.

This is reportedly faster than the 55-day route via the Cape of Good Hope in Africa. (ec/da)

Source: AASTOCKS Financial News

http://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/ ... -news/AAFN

[behappyalways]

The UAE drops a bombshell: withdrawing from OPEC! Oil prices surge $115 as Gulf powers regroup.

阿聯拋震撼彈 退出OPEC! 油價飆$115 波灣勢力重組｜方念華｜FOCUS全球新聞20260429 ‪@tvbsfocus‬

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BYPDWzQSw ... 8KAYcqIYzv

[winston]

Strait to Safety: How to Hedge Oil Volatility in the Crude Awakening

by Jeffrey Neal Johnson

Key Points

The integrated business model provides a natural hedge, allowing these energy giants to stabilize cash flows across different oil price environments.

ExxonMobil's focus on geographic diversification and low-cost production assets supports its long-term growth and dividend reliability.

Chevron's strategy emphasizes disciplined capital allocation and domestic energy production to support its compelling dividend yield for investors.

Source: Market Beat

[behappyalways]

What Does The End Of OPEC Mean For The Iran War And Global Energy Prices?
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... oil-prices

[winston]

Goldman says global oil stocks approaching eight-year low, depletion speed a concern

Estimated total global oil stocks stood at 101 days of global demand and could fall to 98 days by the end of May. 

Global commercial refined products stocks have drawn down from 50 DoD before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran to 45 DoD now.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/finance/article/331098/

[winston]

Iran war is draining world’s oil buffer at an unprecedented pace

Weaker demand from China, the world’s top oil importer – leaving more available for other buyers.

Indonesia, Vietnam, Pakistan and the Philippines as the biggest worries, potentially hitting critical levels of supplies in as little as a month.

Larger economies in the region, particularly China remain comfortable for now.

European jet-fuel stocks are also depleting fast just as summer vacations approach, and some analysts predict they could hit critical levels as soon as June.

Inventories in OPEC could reach “operational stress levels” early in June, if the strait does not reopen, and then “operational minimum” floors by September. That is the point when the world hits the bare minimum amounts of oil needed for pipelines, storage tanks and export terminals to function properly.

It has left India suffering liquefied petroleum gas shortages, prompted airlines to cancel flights and hit US drivers with soaring gasoline costs.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/compan ... ented-pace