Aluminum

[winston]

Aluminium’s war shock blunted by dark transits and Chinese supply

By Mark Burton & Julian Luk

In recent weeks Middle Eastern smelters have carried out a series of complex logistical operations — including daring voyages through the strait — to replenish reserves of alumina and other raw materials, helping to avert widespread closures in a region that accounts for nearly 10% of global supply.

And outside the Gulf, smelters in China and Indonesia, have been instrumental in keeping the global market in check as buyers wait for exports to rebound.

A full-blown physical supply freeze has been averted thanks to a combination of rerouted Middle Eastern alumina imports, rising Chinese exports and ramping Indonesian production”.

“While the market managed to survive the last few months by drawing down inventories, these operational buffers have now been decreased.”

Source: Bloomberg

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/807672

[winston]

<Research> G Sachs Raises Aluminum Price Forecasts, Maintains Mid-term Bearish View

G Sachs said in a report that production disruptions in the Middle East have prolonged tightness in the aluminum market and even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, supply pressures are unlikely to ease immediately.

Since its last update, industry feedback and corporate disclosures, indicate that capacity restoration in the Middle East has progressed more slowly than the bank previously assumed.

Even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens under the announced temporary agreement, smelters will not be able to return to full capacity immediately, as damaged electrolytic cells require repairs and curtailed capacity must be restarted gradually.

As a result, the bank raised its forecast for the average LME aluminum price in the third quarter of 2026 and for 2027 to USD3,300 per tonne and USD2,950 per tonne, respectively, from its previous estimates of USD3,200 per tonne and USD2,750 per tonne.

However, these forecasts remain below forward prices of USD3,400 per tonne and USD3,250 per tonne, as stronger supply growth from Indonesia and China, driven by high smelter profit margins, supports the bank’s unchanged mid-term bearish view.


Source: AASTOCKS

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news ... -news/AAFN

[winston]

not vested

Aluminum Set for Worst Monthly Loss Since 2008 on Supply Outlook

Aluminum headed for the steepest monthly loss since 2008 as expectations for a return of lost Middle Eastern supply saw it rapidly unwind an Iran war-induced rally.

The metal has plummeted more than 15% so far in June.

Record exports from China and daring voyages through the strait to replenish alumina reserves have also helped fuel aluminum's swift reversal of its earlier rally.

Expectations the Federal Reserve will need to keep interest rates higher for longer, or possibly raise them, to curb inflation have also weighed on the demand outlook.

Source: Bloomberg

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/commo ... 40699.html

[winston]

Outlook

RHB maintained its 2026 aluminium price forecast at US$3,250 (RM13,229) per tonne while lowering its 2027 estimates to US$3,050 from US$3,150, due to anticipated supply recovery and Indonesian output.

We expect the aluminium market to remain in a structural deficit, widening deficit estimates to two to three million tonnes in 2026 and one million tonnes in 2027 versus 600,000 tonnes pre-conflict.

Source: RHB

[behappyalways]

World's Largest Alumina Refinery Outside China Abruptly Halves Output On NatGas Disruption
https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/w ... disruption