Beware the scorching gold rallyIt is now 55 per cent higher than in January and 47 per cent past its previous inflation-adjusted peak, reached in 1980.
Many analysts predict it will break US$5,000 by the end of 2026. Then again, early this year, none had anticipated it would cross US$4,000 in 2025.
The gold price has roughly doubled since March 2024, despite the lack of a recession. America’s S&P 500 index has risen by more than 30 per cent over the period; real interest rates remain high.
What may have started, months ago, as a limited push for more gold in central banks’ reserves thus seems to have snowballed into a self-propelled mass of hot money chasing prices higher.
That is a bad omen for “strong hands”. At some point, this classic “momentum trade”– of investors following trends – will stop.
The longer it lasts, the more chips the brashest players stand to lose at the end.
Source: Economist
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