Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)

[winston]

TOL: How Long Will This Storm Last (Part 15)?

storm.jpg

It's now the 13th week of the war and Oil is still about 50% higher since the start of the war.

In the meantime, the markets continue to grind higher to record highs.

My exposure to Equities has climbed back up to about 53% of my Liquid Assets this week.

I'm still trying to bring it down to about 30% before Jul 24th (Tariffs from Regulation 301) but it's a very difficult task when you continue to see big dips out there.

In the meantime, Hormuz is still not opened and the euphoria is continuing in the Semiconductor and AI sectors.

Some TA "experts" are now saying that the US market is quite overbought especially in the AI & Semiconductor areas and that there would be a correction within the next few weeks.

This Memorial Day weekend is also the unofficial start of the Summer and the traders would be going on holidays soon. Therefore, trading volumes would be decreasing soon. In a few weeks time, trading volume will decrease further due to the FIFA World Cup.

Another warning sign is the rise in US interest rates. The spike in the US Treasuries yield is a bit of a concern.

The situation in Indonesia is also something else to note as well. The Rupiah has dropped about 35% and is at record low. The Indonesian stock market is dropping and the government has to increase interest rates while the economy is weakening.

Will the situation in Indonesia spread to other countries eg. Thailand, Philippines, India etc. ? (The Asian Financial Crisis started in Thailand and within a very short time, it quickly spread throughout Asia).

My trading strategy continues to be:-
1. To reduce the number of counters from 34 to 15;
2. To reduce my exposure to ADRs; The Cold War will continue;
3. To reduce my exposure to Equities to about 30% by Jul 24 (Tariffs Regulation 301)
4. To be invested in Growth and Momentum only; There's always a Bull Market somewhere;

On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. FIFA World Cup: Jun 11 - Jul 19; Lower Stockmarkets Turnover & Casinos Visit;
2. June 16 & 17: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?
3. Jul 01: USMCA Ending; Non-Event?
4. Jul 07: Trump to attend NATO Summit? Non-Event?
5. Jul 24: Restoring Tariffs through Regulation 301;
6. July 28 & 29: FOMC Meeting; Non-Event?


Risk Management:-

1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (53% from 46% last week from 40% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 30% exposure to Equities before Jul 24 (Regulations 301)

2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Max 5 Counters Per Country (Not Easy)
a. HK: 31% (12 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors
b. US: 26% (10 Counters); Overbought AI & Semiconductors;
c. Malaysia: 43% (12 Counters); Banks; Elections;
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.

3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? USD; CHF? SGD?

4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities eg. HK and Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
c. Heavy exposure to USD & HKD
d. Heavy exposure to China ADRs (Cold War)
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies


Commodities: Risk Off; Data as of every Saturday;

1. WTI Oil. Lower; US$97 from US$105 last week from US$95 two weeks ago;
Support: US$84 (Apr 2026); US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$115 (Apr 2026); US$128 (2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Global Demand: 100m bpd
b. Straits of Hormuz: 20m bpd off-line; Japan, Korea, China;
c. G7: Releasing 400m barrels (20 days of Hormuz); 3 Months to release; Max: 1.2b barrels (60 days of Hormuz)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250

2. Gold; Lower; US$4523 from US$4562 from US$4731;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024: US$80b, 20% of Demand
d. Investors: 45% of Gold Demand
e. 30% of mined gold are used for Jewellery
f. 5% of mined gold are for Industrial
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

3. Silver; Lower; US$76 from US$77 from US$81;
Resistance: US$93; US$117; Support: US$70; US$58 (Dec 2025);
a. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
b. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
c. Solar Industry: 20% of Demand
d. Small position in SLV to follow the story
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340

4. Copper. Higher; US$6.38 from US$6.30 from US$6.30;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 6.20 (Jan 2026)
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23

5. Bitcoin. Lower; "75,421 @ 8.20 AM May 23, 2026" from "79,147 @ 8.35 AM May 16 2026" from "80,297 @ 9.21 AM May 9 2026";
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Middle East & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$124,000 (Sep 2025)
i. Support: US$60,000, US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240


Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)

CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "59 Greed" from "63 Greed" last week from "67 Greed" two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

1. US Equities; Higher; 7473 from 7409 last week from 7399 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7500
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 19; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 40; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought GRAB
j. Traded FUTU

2. HK Equities; Lower; 25612 from 25968 from 26393;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Baidu
f. Bought New Oriental Education

3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4113 from 4136 from 4180;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Targeted Stimulus Programs
c. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
d. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
e. No Trade

4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1713 from 1740 from 1722:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to Alliance Bank
d. Traded PUC


Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on May 22, 2026 @ 3.14 PM)

1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 159 from 158 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140

2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.10 from 3.09 from 3.09;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

3. AUD to USD; AUD Weaker; 0.71 from 0.72 from 0.72;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8361 from 7.8303 from 7.8295;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80

6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 3.97 from 3.95 from 3.92;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.28 from 1.28 from 1.27;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110

8. USD to CNY; CNY Flat; 6.80 from 6.80 from 6.80;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200

9. Dollar Index - USD Stronger; 99.31 from 99.08 last week from 98.08 two weeks ago;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Properties:-

1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190

3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90

4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220


Others

Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90

Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230

Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150

Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.55% from 4.60% last week from 4.36% two weeks ago;

Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.12% from 4.08% from 3.89%;

Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 96.25 from 95.72 last week from 96.52 two weeks ago;

Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210

Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180

US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170

Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230


Please Note:-

The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.

Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics

Please do forward if you find the above useful.