TOL @ Jan 04, 2026
January Effect?
The "January Effect" is a theory suggesting that stock prices experience a seasonal increase during January, outperforming other months of the year.
This supposed anomaly is most often observed in small-cap stocks and is typically attributed to year-end investor behavior eg. tax-loss harvesting etc.
Anyway, the "CNN Greed & Fear Index" is now at "Neutral 45" from "Greed 56" last week and "Extreme Fear 24" just a month ago.
Was the rise over the past few weeks due to "Window Dressing", the "Santa Rally" and now, the January Effect?
Meanwhile, Cryptos are still weak (measure of sentiment) while the VIX still shows "complacency".
The following are some good articles this week, from Investor Place:-
1. The Signs We’re Watching For When To Bail
a. Speculation over substance
b. Easy money and leverage
c. New Financial Products
d. Retail Crowding In
e. Headline-Grabbing deals
2. Tech Predictions 2026: The Year Software Crawls Into Physical Reality
a. Factory Robots Are Actually Working Now
b. Robotaxis Stop Being a ‘San Francisco Thing’
c. AI Glasses Bring Ambient Intelligence Mainstream
d. Nvidia’s Lock on AI Chips Is Breaking
e. Nuclear SMRs Hit Criticality: Proof Over Promises
I'm currently reflecting on the following:-
1. Can AI & Tech continue to rally and how long would it take for their EPS to catch up to their lofty valuations?
2. How long more do I have to wait for the "Non-Tech" sectors to become "Extreme Value Investments" since they are now in a "slow motion train wreck" situation?
There are many moving parts out there now and I will try to look at the "Big Picture" next week.
In the meantime, we now have this issue in Venezeula while there are protests in Iran and the Saudis and UAE are fighting in Yemen, not to mentioned the Ukraine War.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
2. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
3. Jan 2026: January Effect; Small Caps Outperformance
4. Jan 27 & 28: FOMC meeting
5. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (38% from 39% last week from 41% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 29% (8 Counters); Tariff;
b. US: 34% (9 Counters); Stagflation?
c. Malaysia: 37% (9 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Flat; US$57 from US$57 last week from US$58 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Lower; US$4342 from US$4563 from US$4330;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Lower; US$72 from US$80 from US$59;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Lower; US$5.70 from US$5.85 from US$5.36;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$89,946 ( @ 7.41 AM, Jan 03, 2026) from US$87,358 last week from US$90,335 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Mixed (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "Neutral 45" from "Greed 56" last week from "42 Fear" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Lower; 6858 from 6930 last week from 6835 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.9
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Higher; 26302 from 25818 last week from 25691 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 3969 from 3964 last week from 3890 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Lower; 1670 from 1677 last week from 1666 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought PPB
d. Sold Tenaga
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 03, 2026 @ 7.45 AM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 157 from 157 last week from 156 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Flat; 3.15 from 3.15 from 3.17;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.17 from 1.18 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7917 from 7.7715 from 7.7825;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Flat; 4.05 from 4.05 from 4.10;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Weaker; 1.29 from 1.28 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 7.00 from 7.01 from 7.05;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 98.43 from 98.05 from 98.39; Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.20% from 4.13% from 4.19%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 3.48% from 3.48% from 3.52%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.24 from 97.16 from 97.07;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
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Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
by winston » Sun Jan 04, 2026 9:23 am
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 113693
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
by winston » Sun Jan 11, 2026 8:45 am
TOL @ Jan 11, 2026
US Earnings Season
It will be US Earnings Season soon and expectations are quite high that the party can continue for a little while more.
Fourth-quarter earnings are now forecast to increase 8.1%, up from estimates for 7.2% at the end of September.
For Calendar Year 2026, FactSet is currently projecting earnings to accelerate to a 14.5% annual pace.
Meanwhile, the "CNN Greed & Fear Index" has increased to "Neutral 51" up from "Neutral 45" last week and "Extreme Fear 24" just a month ago.
The VIX is also still low and showing "complacency".
The following are some good articles this week:-
1. Market 360: Five Predictions for 2026:-
a. Kevin Hassett Should Be Named the Next Federal Reserve Chair
b. At Least Two More Key Interest Rate Cuts in 2026
c. AI Revolution & Data Center Boom Accelerates
d. U.S. Economy on Track to Achieve 5% GDP Growth
e. Earnings Momentum Set to Hit the Gas in 2026
2. Business Times: 2026 Outlook:-
a. Look for gradual growth globally
b. Expect inflation to be “sticky” in the US but low elsewhere
c. Navigate tricky US rate-cut decisions
d. Keep investors on their toes with geopolitics
e. Anticipate consequences from US fiscal policy dominance
3. AWS: Five Technology Predictions That Will Transform How We Live
a. AI companions will redefine human connection
b. Developers will become modern renaissance polymaths
c. Quantum computing demands immediate security action
d. Military innovation will accelerate civilian technology
e. Education will become truly personalized
The Optimists are arguing that we will remain in a bull market that is supported by strong earnings growth, easing financial conditions and growth-supportive policies.
The Pessimists are arguing that valuations are stretched, inflation is stubbornly high especially in the US and it is only a matter of time before fiscal challenges result in higher bond yields, undermining support for equity markets.
As for myself, I'm still "cautiously bearish" but my exposure to equities has slowly crept up to 42% of my Liquid Assets. (I would be more comfortable with an exposure to Equities of about 30%).
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
2. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
3. Jan 14: Malaysia - UMNO AGM
4. Jan 27 & 28: FOMC meeting
5. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown?
6. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (42% from 38% last week from 39% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 27% (8 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 32% (9 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 41% (10 Counters); Dividends & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$59 from US$57 last week from US$57 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Higher; US$4501 from US$4342 from US$4563;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Higher; US$79 from US$72 from US$80; Resistance: US$84;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Higher; US$5.90 from US$5.70 from US$5.85;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$90,586 (@ 8.00 AM, Jan 10, 2026) from US$89,946 last week from US$87,358 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "Neutral 51" from "Neutral 45" last week from "Greed 56" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Higher; 6966 from 6858 last week from 6930 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.6
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Lower; 26231 from 26302 last week from 25818 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4120 from 3969 last week from 3964 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1686 from 1670 last week from 1677 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to PPB
d. Bought CIMB
e. Sold 40% DNEX
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 09, 2026 @ 5.25 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 158 from 157 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.16 from 3.15 from 3.15;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.18;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7949 from 7.7917 from 7.7715;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.07 from 4.05 from 4.05;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.98 from 7.00 from 7.01;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.05 from 98.43 from 98.05;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.17% from 4.20% from 4.13%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher 3.54% from 3.48% from 3.48%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.69 from 97.24 from 97.16;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
US Earnings Season
It will be US Earnings Season soon and expectations are quite high that the party can continue for a little while more.
Fourth-quarter earnings are now forecast to increase 8.1%, up from estimates for 7.2% at the end of September.
For Calendar Year 2026, FactSet is currently projecting earnings to accelerate to a 14.5% annual pace.
Meanwhile, the "CNN Greed & Fear Index" has increased to "Neutral 51" up from "Neutral 45" last week and "Extreme Fear 24" just a month ago.
The VIX is also still low and showing "complacency".
The following are some good articles this week:-
1. Market 360: Five Predictions for 2026:-
a. Kevin Hassett Should Be Named the Next Federal Reserve Chair
b. At Least Two More Key Interest Rate Cuts in 2026
c. AI Revolution & Data Center Boom Accelerates
d. U.S. Economy on Track to Achieve 5% GDP Growth
e. Earnings Momentum Set to Hit the Gas in 2026
2. Business Times: 2026 Outlook:-
a. Look for gradual growth globally
b. Expect inflation to be “sticky” in the US but low elsewhere
c. Navigate tricky US rate-cut decisions
d. Keep investors on their toes with geopolitics
e. Anticipate consequences from US fiscal policy dominance
3. AWS: Five Technology Predictions That Will Transform How We Live
a. AI companions will redefine human connection
b. Developers will become modern renaissance polymaths
c. Quantum computing demands immediate security action
d. Military innovation will accelerate civilian technology
e. Education will become truly personalized
The Optimists are arguing that we will remain in a bull market that is supported by strong earnings growth, easing financial conditions and growth-supportive policies.
The Pessimists are arguing that valuations are stretched, inflation is stubbornly high especially in the US and it is only a matter of time before fiscal challenges result in higher bond yields, undermining support for equity markets.
As for myself, I'm still "cautiously bearish" but my exposure to equities has slowly crept up to 42% of my Liquid Assets. (I would be more comfortable with an exposure to Equities of about 30%).
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US: Why are National Guards being deployed?
2. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
3. Jan 14: Malaysia - UMNO AGM
4. Jan 27 & 28: FOMC meeting
5. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown?
6. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (42% from 38% last week from 39% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 27% (8 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 32% (9 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 41% (10 Counters); Dividends & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$59 from US$57 last week from US$57 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Higher; US$4501 from US$4342 from US$4563;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Higher; US$79 from US$72 from US$80; Resistance: US$84;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Higher; US$5.90 from US$5.70 from US$5.85;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$90,586 (@ 8.00 AM, Jan 10, 2026) from US$89,946 last week from US$87,358 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "Neutral 51" from "Neutral 45" last week from "Greed 56" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Higher; 6966 from 6858 last week from 6930 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.6
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Lower; 26231 from 26302 last week from 25818 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No Trade
3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4120 from 3969 last week from 3964 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1686 from 1670 last week from 1677 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Added to PPB
d. Bought CIMB
e. Sold 40% DNEX
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 09, 2026 @ 5.25 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Weaker; 158 from 157 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Stronger; 3.16 from 3.15 from 3.15;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Weaker; 1.16 from 1.17 from 1.18;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7949 from 7.7917 from 7.7715;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Weaker; 4.07 from 4.05 from 4.05;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.28;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.98 from 7.00 from 7.01;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.05 from 98.43 from 98.05;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 4.17% from 4.20% from 4.13%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher 3.54% from 3.48% from 3.48%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.69 from 97.24 from 97.16;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 113693
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
by winston » Sun Jan 18, 2026 9:07 am
TOL @ Jan 18, 2026
Sell, Hold or Buy?
The markets are still grinding higher.
The "CNN Greed & Fear Index" has increased to "Greed 62" this week from "Neutral 51" last week from "Extreme Fear 24" about a month ago.
The VIX is still low and still showing "complacency".
The following are some good investment articles this week:-
1. Business Times: Key Themes for Global Markets This Year:-
a. Global AI leadership divide
b. High valuations across multiple regions
c. Rate cuts in the West
d. Rate hikes in the East eg. Japan
e. Potential currency volatility
2. Daily Wealth: For Now, We Can Expect Stocks to Keep Moving Higher:-
a. Market Breadth Is Expanding; The NYSE Advance/Decline line is hitting all-time highs, right alongside the overall market
b. No Concentration Risk; The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is hitting highs as well
c. About 60% of stocks are in an uptrend. It’s not low enough to signal a divergence. And it’s not high enough to signal an overheated market.
3. Wolfe Research: Eight risks that could spark stock declines in 2026
a. Rise in retail investors
b. Investors have been lulled by this compression in volatility
c. More debt issuance and the circular nature of some AI sector deals are a flashing sign that "the current environment is transforming into a bubble."
d. The U.S. federal debt load is now "on a completely unsustainable long-term trajectory"
e. There is "significant uncertainty" around the level and outlook for long-term interest rates
f. Should more credit issues surface and become widespread, "this would serve as a downside catalyst for both the economy and equity markets"
g. Rising leverage in multi-strategy hedge funds, coupled with financial deregulation, could exaggerate equity market declines to extremes as well
h. Outside of the U.S., a "meltdown" in Japanese sovereign debt yields due to "unexpected policy changes" could "inspire sharp drawdowns"
As for myself, I'm still "cautiously bearish" but my exposure to equities has slowly crept up to 49% of my Liquid Assets from just 38% two weeks ago. (I should try to reduce my exposure to about 30% but it's easier said than done).
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
2. War in Iran?
3. War in Cuba?
4. War in Colombia?
5. Jan 19: WEF @ Davos
6. Jan 27 & 28: FOMC meeting
7. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown?
8. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (49% from 42% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 35% (8 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 24% (8 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 41% (11 Counters); Banks & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Flat; US$59 from US$59 last week from US$57 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Higher; US$4595 from US$4501 from US$4342;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Higher; US$89 from US$79 from US$72; Resistance: US$84;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Lower; US$5.83 from US$5.90 from US$5.70;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$95,552 (@ 8.10 AM on Jan 17, 2026) from US$90,586 (@ 8.00 AM, Jan 10, 2026) from US$89,946 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "Greed 62" from "Neutral 51" last week from "Neutral 45" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Lower; 6940 from 6966 last week from 6858 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.6
i. Bought Trip.com (TCOM)
j. Sold Phillip Morris (PM)
k. Sold Lockheed Martin (LMT)
2. HK Equities; Higher; 26795 from 26231 last week from 26302 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Trip.com (9961)
f. Bought CATL (3750)
3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4102 from 4120 last week from 3969 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1713 from 1686 last week from 1670 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought IJM
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 16, 2026 @ 3.00 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 158 from 158 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.15 from 3.16 from 3.15;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7998 from 7.7949 from 7.7917;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.06 from 4.07 from 4.05;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.97 from 6.98 from 7.00;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.33 from 99.05 from 98.43;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.23% from 4.17% from 4.20%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.60% from 3.54% from 3.48%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.82 from 97.69 from 97.24;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
Sell, Hold or Buy?
The markets are still grinding higher.
The "CNN Greed & Fear Index" has increased to "Greed 62" this week from "Neutral 51" last week from "Extreme Fear 24" about a month ago.
The VIX is still low and still showing "complacency".
The following are some good investment articles this week:-
1. Business Times: Key Themes for Global Markets This Year:-
a. Global AI leadership divide
b. High valuations across multiple regions
c. Rate cuts in the West
d. Rate hikes in the East eg. Japan
e. Potential currency volatility
2. Daily Wealth: For Now, We Can Expect Stocks to Keep Moving Higher:-
a. Market Breadth Is Expanding; The NYSE Advance/Decline line is hitting all-time highs, right alongside the overall market
b. No Concentration Risk; The S&P 500 Equal Weight Index is hitting highs as well
c. About 60% of stocks are in an uptrend. It’s not low enough to signal a divergence. And it’s not high enough to signal an overheated market.
3. Wolfe Research: Eight risks that could spark stock declines in 2026
a. Rise in retail investors
b. Investors have been lulled by this compression in volatility
c. More debt issuance and the circular nature of some AI sector deals are a flashing sign that "the current environment is transforming into a bubble."
d. The U.S. federal debt load is now "on a completely unsustainable long-term trajectory"
e. There is "significant uncertainty" around the level and outlook for long-term interest rates
f. Should more credit issues surface and become widespread, "this would serve as a downside catalyst for both the economy and equity markets"
g. Rising leverage in multi-strategy hedge funds, coupled with financial deregulation, could exaggerate equity market declines to extremes as well
h. Outside of the U.S., a "meltdown" in Japanese sovereign debt yields due to "unexpected policy changes" could "inspire sharp drawdowns"
As for myself, I'm still "cautiously bearish" but my exposure to equities has slowly crept up to 49% of my Liquid Assets from just 38% two weeks ago. (I should try to reduce my exposure to about 30% but it's easier said than done).
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. US: Tariff (Supreme Court)
2. War in Iran?
3. War in Cuba?
4. War in Colombia?
5. Jan 19: WEF @ Davos
6. Jan 27 & 28: FOMC meeting
7. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown?
8. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Higher (49% from 42% last week from 38% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 35% (8 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 24% (8 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 41% (11 Counters); Banks & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Flat; US$59 from US$59 last week from US$57 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Higher; US$4595 from US$4501 from US$4342;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 4600
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Will Central Banks' demand (20%) > Retail Gold supply (80%)?
d. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
e. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
f. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
g. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
h. 2026 target: US$4900 GS;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Higher; US$89 from US$79 from US$72; Resistance: US$84;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 91; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Lower; US$5.83 from US$5.90 from US$5.70;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance: 5.19
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
5. Bitcoin. Higher; US$95,552 (@ 8.10 AM on Jan 17, 2026) from US$90,586 (@ 8.00 AM, Jan 10, 2026) from US$89,946 two weeks ago;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030
c. Demand from Russia-Ukraine War, Iranian & Venezuela Sanction?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "Greed 62" from "Neutral 51" last week from "Neutral 45" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Lower; 6940 from 6966 last week from 6858 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold: 1.6
i. Bought Trip.com (TCOM)
j. Sold Phillip Morris (PM)
k. Sold Lockheed Martin (LMT)
2. HK Equities; Higher; 26795 from 26231 last week from 26302 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Bought Trip.com (9961)
f. Bought CATL (3750)
3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4102 from 4120 last week from 3969 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1713 from 1686 last week from 1670 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Bought IJM
Currencies: Risk Off (Data from XE.com on Jan 16, 2026 @ 3.00 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 158 from 158 last week from 157 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.15 from 3.16 from 3.15;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Flat; 0.67 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Flat; 1.16 from 1.16 from 1.17;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.7998 from 7.7949 from 7.7917;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.06 from 4.07 from 4.05;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Flat; 1.29 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.97 from 6.98 from 7.00;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Stronger; 99.33 from 99.05 from 98.43;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 4.23% from 4.17% from 4.20%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Higher; 3.60% from 3.54% from 3.48%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.82 from 97.69 from 97.24;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 113693
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
by winston » Sun Jan 25, 2026 9:21 am
The Big Picture (Update)
There are still many uncertainties and moving parts out there so it's time to look at the "Big Picture" again
1. Interest Rates:- The Feds are expected to make 2 or 3 cuts in 2026 unless the new Fed Chair decides to be adventurous. Various moving parts here including:-
a. Things are slowing down in the US
b. There are about $28t of the National Debt to be refinanced over the next four years and
c. Inflation is creeping in from the tariffs
Lower interest rates in 2026 is starting to be a non-event while some "experts' are expecting interest rates to rise in 2027.
2. USD:- There is still no alternative to the USD yet. However, a mere 2% shift away from US Assets, can easily result in a US$1t outflow. The Europeans were deeply offended at the WEF, while 40 year Japanese Bonds are now touching 4%.
3. Japan:- The new PM wants to unleash Abenomics 2.0. If that's the case, the JPY will weaken, leading to higher inflation. A weaker JPY will be good for the Japanese Trading Houses and the Nikkei 225. However, if inflation rises a lot, the BOJ may be forced to increase interest rates, which may result in more Japanese money flowing back to Japan. The Nikkei is now close to the record high though.
4. Commodities:- There is now a speculative FOMO rally in Precious Metals, Copper, Rare Earth and Uranium. However, demand for Commodities are not really that strong due to the global slowdown. The Speculative FOMO rally must be allowed to run it's course before demand destruction kicks in eg. Cocoa. A strong USD will not be good for Commodities. I will not be chasing this FOMO rally in Commodities.
5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is adding to the world's Liquidity. There's supposedly a lot of money (US$7t?) on the sidelines in China, waiting to buy on any dips. The US is now starting QE again. At the last crisis, about US$16t were deployed between the Feds, ECB, BoJ and PBOC. For the next crisis, will they be able to coordinate things again with the bad relationships between them now?
6. Global Economy:- K Economy with AI & Tech on one side and the traditional businesses on the other. A mild global recession is probably the base case now. Will it morph into a Global Recession or Depression?
7. Market Sentiment:- With the constant Flip-Flopping, market sentiment has been damaged. Therefore, a 25% discount should automatically be applied to any business consideration. Chasing any over-crowded trade at this point in time, is probably risky, unless one is very nimble. Bitcoin (a good measure of Market Sentiment) has been quite weak. The VIX is also very low indicating "Extreme Complacency".
8. Earnings:- Outside of the Technology and AI sectors, things have not been that great. Supply chains are being disrupted and once the full impact of the tariffs hits later this year, demand could be affected. We are now working through the front-loaded inventories. Business Confidence has been severely affected and will probably not return for a few years.
9. Trading Strategy:- With so many moving parts and the constant flip-flop, it's very difficult to trade in this type of market as one can easily get whip-lashed. One could try to fade the big moves but it's not easy. A sharp drop in price may present some medium term opportunity but it should be looked at on a case-to-case basis as one do not want to be catching a falling piano.
I'm still "cautiously bearish" as the markets continue to grind higher. I have reduced my exposure to Equities this week from about 49% of Liquid Assets, to about 37%.
I would really start worrying when a see the "M" or "Triple Tops" forming on the charts.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Jan 27 & 28: FOMC meeting
2. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown?
3. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review
4. Feb 20: US: Tariff Ruling by Supreme Court
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (37% from 49% last week from 42% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 26% (6 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 31% (8 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 43% (10 Counters); Banks & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$61 from US$59 last week from US$59 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Higher; US$4980 from US$4595 from US$4501;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
d. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
e. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
f. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Higher; US$101 from US$89 from US$79;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 51; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Higher; US$5.95 from US$5.83 from US$5.90;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23
5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$89,434 @ 9.02 on Jan 24, 2026 from US$95,552 @ Jan 17, 2026 from US$90,586 @ Jan 10, 2026;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030 ?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Iran & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "52 Neutral" from "Greed 62" last week from "Neutral 51" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Lower; 6916 from 6940 last week from 6966 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Lower; 26737 from 26795 last week from 26231 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Sold 1/2 PopMart (9992)
f. Sold Trip.com (9961)
g. Sold CATL (3750)
h. Sold Covered Call ETF (3416)
3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4136 from 4102 last week from 4120 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1720 from 1713 last week from 1686 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Traded IJM
d. Traded Hong Leong Bank
e. Sold PPB
Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jan 23, 2026 @ 10.05 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 158 from 158 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.13 from 3.15 from 3.16;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Higher; 0.69 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Higher; 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.7979 from 7.7998 from 7.7949;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.01 from 4.06 from 4.07;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.28 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.96 from 6.97 from 6.98;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 98.33 from 99.33 from 99.05;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 4.23% from 4.23% from 4.17%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 3.60% from 3.60% from 3.54%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.87 from 97.82 from 97.69;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
There are still many uncertainties and moving parts out there so it's time to look at the "Big Picture" again
1. Interest Rates:- The Feds are expected to make 2 or 3 cuts in 2026 unless the new Fed Chair decides to be adventurous. Various moving parts here including:-
a. Things are slowing down in the US
b. There are about $28t of the National Debt to be refinanced over the next four years and
c. Inflation is creeping in from the tariffs
Lower interest rates in 2026 is starting to be a non-event while some "experts' are expecting interest rates to rise in 2027.
2. USD:- There is still no alternative to the USD yet. However, a mere 2% shift away from US Assets, can easily result in a US$1t outflow. The Europeans were deeply offended at the WEF, while 40 year Japanese Bonds are now touching 4%.
3. Japan:- The new PM wants to unleash Abenomics 2.0. If that's the case, the JPY will weaken, leading to higher inflation. A weaker JPY will be good for the Japanese Trading Houses and the Nikkei 225. However, if inflation rises a lot, the BOJ may be forced to increase interest rates, which may result in more Japanese money flowing back to Japan. The Nikkei is now close to the record high though.
4. Commodities:- There is now a speculative FOMO rally in Precious Metals, Copper, Rare Earth and Uranium. However, demand for Commodities are not really that strong due to the global slowdown. The Speculative FOMO rally must be allowed to run it's course before demand destruction kicks in eg. Cocoa. A strong USD will not be good for Commodities. I will not be chasing this FOMO rally in Commodities.
5. Liquidity:- The markets remain fairly liquid. China is adding to the world's Liquidity. There's supposedly a lot of money (US$7t?) on the sidelines in China, waiting to buy on any dips. The US is now starting QE again. At the last crisis, about US$16t were deployed between the Feds, ECB, BoJ and PBOC. For the next crisis, will they be able to coordinate things again with the bad relationships between them now?
6. Global Economy:- K Economy with AI & Tech on one side and the traditional businesses on the other. A mild global recession is probably the base case now. Will it morph into a Global Recession or Depression?
7. Market Sentiment:- With the constant Flip-Flopping, market sentiment has been damaged. Therefore, a 25% discount should automatically be applied to any business consideration. Chasing any over-crowded trade at this point in time, is probably risky, unless one is very nimble. Bitcoin (a good measure of Market Sentiment) has been quite weak. The VIX is also very low indicating "Extreme Complacency".
8. Earnings:- Outside of the Technology and AI sectors, things have not been that great. Supply chains are being disrupted and once the full impact of the tariffs hits later this year, demand could be affected. We are now working through the front-loaded inventories. Business Confidence has been severely affected and will probably not return for a few years.
9. Trading Strategy:- With so many moving parts and the constant flip-flop, it's very difficult to trade in this type of market as one can easily get whip-lashed. One could try to fade the big moves but it's not easy. A sharp drop in price may present some medium term opportunity but it should be looked at on a case-to-case basis as one do not want to be catching a falling piano.
I'm still "cautiously bearish" as the markets continue to grind higher. I have reduced my exposure to Equities this week from about 49% of Liquid Assets, to about 37%.
I would really start worrying when a see the "M" or "Triple Tops" forming on the charts.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Jan 27 & 28: FOMC meeting
2. Jan 31: US Government Shutdown?
3. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review
4. Feb 20: US: Tariff Ruling by Supreme Court
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (37% from 49% last week from 42% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 26% (6 Counters); AI; Tariffs;
b. US: 31% (8 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 43% (10 Counters); Banks & Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-On; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$61 from US$59 last week from US$59 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Higher; US$4980 from US$4595 from US$4501;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
d. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
e. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
f. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Higher; US$101 from US$89 from US$79;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 51; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Higher; US$5.95 from US$5.83 from US$5.90;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23
5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$89,434 @ 9.02 on Jan 24, 2026 from US$95,552 @ Jan 17, 2026 from US$90,586 @ Jan 10, 2026;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030 ?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Iran & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$80,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk Off (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Lower; "52 Neutral" from "Greed 62" last week from "Neutral 51" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Lower; 6916 from 6940 last week from 6966 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. No Trade
2. HK Equities; Lower; 26737 from 26795 last week from 26231 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. Sold 1/2 PopMart (9992)
f. Sold Trip.com (9961)
g. Sold CATL (3750)
h. Sold Covered Call ETF (3416)
3. Shanghai Equities; Higher; 4136 from 4102 last week from 4120 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1720 from 1713 last week from 1686 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Traded IJM
d. Traded Hong Leong Bank
e. Sold PPB
Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jan 23, 2026 @ 10.05 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Flat; 158 from 158 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.13 from 3.15 from 3.16;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Higher; 0.69 from 0.67 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Higher; 1.17 from 1.16 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Stronger; 7.7979 from 7.7998 from 7.7949;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 4.01 from 4.06 from 4.07;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.28 from 1.29 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.96 from 6.97 from 6.98;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 98.33 from 99.33 from 99.05;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 4.23% from 4.23% from 4.17%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 3.60% from 3.60% from 3.54%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Higher; 97.87 from 97.82 from 97.69;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
-
winston - Billionaire Boss
- Posts: 113693
- Joined: Wed May 07, 2008 9:28 am
Re: Winston's Investment Ideas 06 (Aug 22 - Dec 26)
by winston » Sun Feb 01, 2026 9:44 am
Is The Storm Coming?
The big story this week, was the plunge in Silver of about 30%, on Friday. This was not really unexpected as Silver was behaving euphorically. However, the speed and magnitude, was a bit too fast and furious.
For the past few weeks, almost every single day, I was receiving videos of how great Silver was. And every day, I was waiting to buy some DSL (Ultrashort Silver ETF) for a quick trade.
Unfortunately, I didn't get my chance to buy some DSL at all. I was expecting Silver to drop maybe a few percent a day, for a few days and when the weak trend was in place then that would be my que to buy some DSL.
Anyway, the other Commodities also dropped together with Silver on Friday eg. Gold, Platinum, Copper, Rare Earth etc.
Are Commodities trying to tell us something about the Market Sentiment out there? (The Silver Market is now worth about US$5t).
When Bitcoin rose rapidly to the range high of US$127,000 in early October 2026, it also suddenly dropped. However, the drop was not as bad as Silver on Friday.
Anyway, Bitcoin still has not recovered from it's drop and is still about 38% from the top. I trust that the other cryptos are also quite weak.
Are Cryptos trying to tell us something about the Market Sentiment out there? (Most youngsters now have some money in Cryptos and the Crypto Market is now worth about US$3t).
The only strength out there now, is in the AI & Tech Sector. This week we also saw a 10% correction in Microsoft, one of the strongest AI & Tech stock. This was unexpected as the market has been brushing aside the Mag 7's huge capex in the AI area for the past few quarters.
Is this start of the decline of the Mag7s, AI & Tech counters? If so, can the rest of market weather the storm?
Volatility seems to be increasing and my gut feel is that things may be a bit choppy going forward. I have been hunkering down and since the Equities market were strong over the past few weeks, I have managed to reduce my exposure from about 49% of Liquid Assets to about 32% now. (In my previous blogs, I have been using the word "cautiously bearish" while the markets grind up).
Finally, it also does not help Market Sentiments, that there's about 12 US ships in the Middle East, waiting to attack Iran. My gut feel here, is that they will be attacking Iran within a week or two. Hence, the need for me to have a portfolio that can weather the coming storm.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Feb 08: Japanese Election
2. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review
3. Mid Feb: US Attacking Iran?
4. Feb 20: US: Tariff Ruling by Supreme Court
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (32% from 37% last week from 49% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 29% (6 Counters); K Economy
b. US: 35% (9 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 36% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$65 from US$61 last week from US$59 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$75; 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Lower; US$4763 from US$4980 from US$4595;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
d. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
e. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
f. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Lower; US$79 from US$101 from US$89;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 49; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Flat; US$5.95 from US$5.95 from US$5.83;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23
5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$78,771 @ 8.46 AM on Feb 01, 2026 from US$89,434 @ 9.02 on Jan 24, 2026 from US$95,552 @ Jan 17, 2026;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030 ?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Iran & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "58 Greed" from "52 Neutral" last week from "Greed 62" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Higher; 6954 from 6916 last week from 6940 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought XLE (Energy ETF)
j. Sold Meta (FB)
k. Bought SLV (Silver ETF)
2. HK Equities; Higher; 27390 from 26737 last week from 26795 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No trade
3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4118 from 4136 last week from 4102 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1741 from 1720 last week from 1713 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold IJM
d. Sold CIMB
Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jan 30, 2026 @ 4.08 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 154 from 158 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.11 from 3.13 from 3.15;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Higher; 0.70 from 0.69 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Higher; 1.19 from 1.17 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8067 from 7.7979 from 7.7998;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 3.94 from 4.01 from 4.06;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.27 from 1.28 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.95 from 6.96 from 6.97;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 96.44 from 98.33 from 99.33;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 4.24% from 4.23% from 4.23%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.53% from 3.60% from 3.60%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 97.82 from 97.87 from 97.82;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
The big story this week, was the plunge in Silver of about 30%, on Friday. This was not really unexpected as Silver was behaving euphorically. However, the speed and magnitude, was a bit too fast and furious.
For the past few weeks, almost every single day, I was receiving videos of how great Silver was. And every day, I was waiting to buy some DSL (Ultrashort Silver ETF) for a quick trade.
Unfortunately, I didn't get my chance to buy some DSL at all. I was expecting Silver to drop maybe a few percent a day, for a few days and when the weak trend was in place then that would be my que to buy some DSL.
Anyway, the other Commodities also dropped together with Silver on Friday eg. Gold, Platinum, Copper, Rare Earth etc.
Are Commodities trying to tell us something about the Market Sentiment out there? (The Silver Market is now worth about US$5t).
When Bitcoin rose rapidly to the range high of US$127,000 in early October 2026, it also suddenly dropped. However, the drop was not as bad as Silver on Friday.
Anyway, Bitcoin still has not recovered from it's drop and is still about 38% from the top. I trust that the other cryptos are also quite weak.
Are Cryptos trying to tell us something about the Market Sentiment out there? (Most youngsters now have some money in Cryptos and the Crypto Market is now worth about US$3t).
The only strength out there now, is in the AI & Tech Sector. This week we also saw a 10% correction in Microsoft, one of the strongest AI & Tech stock. This was unexpected as the market has been brushing aside the Mag 7's huge capex in the AI area for the past few quarters.
Is this start of the decline of the Mag7s, AI & Tech counters? If so, can the rest of market weather the storm?
Volatility seems to be increasing and my gut feel is that things may be a bit choppy going forward. I have been hunkering down and since the Equities market were strong over the past few weeks, I have managed to reduce my exposure from about 49% of Liquid Assets to about 32% now. (In my previous blogs, I have been using the word "cautiously bearish" while the markets grind up).
Finally, it also does not help Market Sentiments, that there's about 12 US ships in the Middle East, waiting to attack Iran. My gut feel here, is that they will be attacking Iran within a week or two. Hence, the need for me to have a portfolio that can weather the coming storm.
On the horizon, we have the following:-
1. Feb 08: Japanese Election
2. Feb 13: HK - Hang Seng Index Review
3. Mid Feb: US Attacking Iran?
4. Feb 20: US: Tariff Ruling by Supreme Court
Risk Management:-
1. To Monitor "Net Exposure" To Equities (Long Less Shorts):- Lower (32% from 37% last week from 49% two weeks ago, of Liquid Assets)
Goal: 20% exposure to Equities before the next crash; Maximum 40%;
2. To Diversify Across Countries; Goal: Maximum 15 Counters (Not Easy)
a. HK: 29% (6 Counters); K Economy
b. US: 35% (9 Counters); K Economy
c. Malaysia: 36% (8 Counters); Special Situations
Goal: To ensure that my portfolio is not concentrated in any country. Ideally, 5 counters from each country for diversification.
3. To be in the "safe havens" before next recession; (HKD may be repegged)
a. Where are the Safe Havens now? Yen?
4. To Minimize Industry / Sector Risk / Country Risk
a. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Equities ie. HK & Msia
b. Heavy exposure to Asian Based Currencies eg. HKD & MYR
Goal: To diversify across various Sectors, Countries and Currencies
Commodities: Risk-Off; Data as of every Saturday;
1. WTI Oil. Higher; US$65 from US$61 last week from US$59 two weeks ago;
Support: US$55 (Apr 2025), US$17 (Mar 2020);
Resistance: US$75; 115 (Jun 2022); US$138 (Jun 2008);
a. Weak Global Demand: Surplus 2m bpd?
b. SPR: 395m of 700m barrels left; Trump replenishing SPR (US$20b);
c. OPEC+: Increasing output to regain market share
d. Saudi's massive budget needs oil prices to be > $81 per barrel
e. Historical High of Gold to Oil: 70
f. Drill Baby Drill = Lower Oil Prices
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=250
2. Gold; Lower; US$4763 from US$4980 from US$4595;
Support: 3400; 2900; 1500; Resistance 5400
a. In a crisis (cash crunch), gold will also be sold
b. Central Banks holds about 20% of all mined gold
c. Central Banks bought about 1000 tonnes in 2024 (US$80b)
d. Central Banks are buying about 80 tonnes monthly
e. About 300 tonnes of gold are mined monthly
f. About half of mined gold are used for jewellery
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
3. Silver; Lower; US$79 from US$101 from US$89;
a. Attractive "Silver to Gold" ratio 49; 80/50 Rule;
b. Industrial Demand eg. Solar, EV, AI
c. Fourth Year of Deficit (2024)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=340
4. Copper. Flat; US$5.95 from US$5.95 from US$5.83;
Support: 3.08; 2.25; Resistance:
a. Slight oversupply for a few years?
b. 14 years to get an operational new mine
c. Monitoring COPX;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 8&start=23
5. Bitcoin. Lower; US$78,771 @ 8.46 AM on Feb 01, 2026 from US$89,434 @ 9.02 on Jan 24, 2026 from US$95,552 @ Jan 17, 2026;
a. Cost of Mining Bitcoin: US$15,000 (Floor?)
b. US$1m Target by Cathie Woods by 2030 ?
c. Demand from Ukraine, Iran & Venezuela?
d. US: Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Existing 200k; Total: 1m Bitcoins?
e. Number of Bitcoins in Circulation: 19.9m
f. Bitcoins left for mining: 1.09m
g. New Bitcoins Per Day: 900
h. Resistance: US$127,000
i. Support: US$54,000
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
Equities - Risk On (Data as of Saturday)
CNN Fear & Greed Index; Higher; "58 Greed" from "52 Neutral" last week from "Greed 62" two weeks ago
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
1. US Equities; Higher; 6954 from 6916 last week from 6940 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=240
a. Support: 6540; 6100; 5700; 5120; 4830; 3850; 3400; 2800; 2237 (2020); 1930 (2016); Resistance: 7000; 7100
b. S&P 500: PE 30; Fwd PE 23; Average 16; Dotcom Crash: PE 32;
c. S&P 500 CAPE Ratio; Current = 41; Sept 1929 = 33; Dec 1999 = 44
d. S&P P/B = 5.3; Peak @ 2000 = 5.1
e. Buffett Indicator: U.S. Equity Market Cap / GDP = 225; >140 is Expensive
f. Nasdaq: PE 30; Forward PE 25; Average 19; Resistance: 26,000; Support: 22,100; 21,000; 17,000;
g. PE of "Magnificent 7" = 27
h. Ratio of S&P to Gold = 1.7
i. Bought XLE (Energy ETF)
j. Sold Meta (FB)
k. Bought SLV (Silver ETF)
2. HK Equities; Higher; 27390 from 26737 last week from 26795 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
a. Support: 21000; 19800 (Apr 2025); 16500; 14700; 13300; 8600
b. Resistance: 27300 (Oct 2025); 30,000; 31200 (Dec 2017);
c. Forward PE 10
d. 2006 Target: 27,500 MS;
e. No trade
3. Shanghai Equities; Lower; 4118 from 4136 last week from 4102 two weeks ago;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
a. Support: 2450; Resistance 4600
b. Vested 3188 (CSI 300 ETF)
c. Targeted Stimulus Programs
d. CSI 300: PE 14; Forward PE 12
e. 2006 Target: 4840 MS;
f. No Trade
4. Malaysian Equities; Higher; 1741 from 1720 last week from 1713 two weeks ago:
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=160
a. Support: 1600; 1433, 1369; 1210;
b. Resistance: 1550, 1580; 1605; 1895 (Apr 2018)
c. Sold IJM
d. Sold CIMB
Currencies: Risk On (Data from XE.com on Jan 30, 2026 @ 4.08 PM)
1. USD to JPY; JPY Stronger; 154 from 158 last week from 158 two weeks ago;
a. Range is 76 to 161
b. Aging Population
c. High Debt Ratio
d. Expecting rates to rise in Japan
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=140
2. SGD to MYR; SGD Weaker; 3.11 from 3.13 from 3.15;
Resistance: 3.57;
a. Would they devalue the SGD because of the slowdown?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
3. AUD to USD; AUD Higher; 0.70 from 0.69 from 0.67;
a. Range: 0.65 to 1.10 (2011)
b. Commodity Currency
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
4. EUR to USD; EUR Higher; 1.19 from 1.17 from 1.16;
a. Ukraine War - Escalation or Cease Fire?
b. Monitoring FEZ
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
5. USD to HKD; HKD Weaker; 7.8067 from 7.7979 from 7.7998;
a. USD Peg band: 7.75 to 7.85
b. When will they be removing the peg to the USD?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 9&start=80
6. USD to MYR: MYR Stronger; 3.94 from 4.01 from 4.06;
a. 52 Week Range is 4.18 to 4.80
b. Lowest: 4.885 (1998)
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
7. USD to SGD: SGD Stronger; 1.27 from 1.28 from 1.29;
a. High 1.70 (2004); Low 1.20 (2011)
b. Uncomfortable with currency of small country
c. Singapore has been managing the finances well.
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=110
8. USD to CNY; CNY Stronger; 6.95 from 6.96 from 6.97;
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=200
9. Dollar Index - USD; Weaker; 96.44 from 98.33 from 99.33;
Support: 90
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Properties:-
1. China Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
2. HK Properties:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=190
3. Singapore Properties:-
a. Stronger than expected
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 6&start=90
4. Malaysian Properties:-
a. Johor and Penang properties seems to be strong
b. New projects declined 46% in 1H 2025
c. Increased of 19% in 1H 2025 on unsold properties
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=220
Others
Headwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Tailwinds:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... 0&start=90
Warning Signs:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Risk Management:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=150
Yield on 10 Year US Treasuries; Flat; 4.24% from 4.23% from 4.23%;
Yield on 2 Year US Treasuries; Lower; 3.53% from 3.60% from 3.60%;
Interest Rates:-
a. 2/10 Not Inverted; No Recession?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
JNK (SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF): Lower; 97.82 from 97.87 from 97.82;
Inflation:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=210
Health:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=180
US Slowdown - How Deep & How Long?
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=170
Risks Out There:-
https://investideas.net/forum/viewtopic ... &start=230
Please Note:-
The above is to help me crystallize my thinking. It's not a recommendation to Buy or Sell. For illiquid counters, I may not disclose my trading activity for the week.
Active Topics - There is an "Active Topics" button on the top right corner.
https://investideas.net/forum/search.ph ... ive_topics
Please do forward if you find the above useful.
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It's all about "how much you made when you were right" & "how little you lost when you were wrong"
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winston - Billionaire Boss
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