Asset Allocation 02 (Aug 13 - Dec 24)

[winston]

Fewer Money Managers Are Bullish on the Stock Market Now: Barron’s Poll

Professional investors favor bonds over stocks for the next 12 months, according to the Big Money Poll. The biggest risk to the market: recession.

By Nicholas Jasinski

Only 36% of the professional investors describe themselves as bullish on the outlook for stocks over the next 12 months.

The same percentage say they are neutral, while the remaining respondents, 28%, put themselves in the bearish camp.

Source: Barron's

https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks ... w_20230421

[winston]

Investors watch for quarter-end rebalancing in US stocks, bonds and options

By Saqib Iqbal Ahmed

JPMorgan strategists earlier this month estimated the rebalancing flows could total about $150 billion worth of equity selling and a similar amount of bond buying - factors that may already be impacting markets over recent sessions.

Source: Reuters

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/672648

[winston]

The Stock Market Rally Still Has Room to Run

by Brett Eversole

Tell me what stocks did last week… and I’ll tell you how sentiment will look this week.

We’ve seen positive fund flows into bonds every month in 2023. Folks have pushed nearly $174 billion into these funds this year.

Folks might say they’re getting bullish on stocks… But they sure aren’t acting like it. Instead of pouring money into the stock market, they’re still piling into safe bonds.

This won’t last forever, of course. Once folks start putting their money where their mouths are, we’ll see a flood of money into stocks, and prices will likely soar to new heights.

This is a setup waiting to unwind. And that inevitable switch is a big reason to stay bullish right now.

Source: DailyWealth.com

https://dailytradealert.com/2023/08/30/ ... om-to-run/

[winston]

Wall Street bulls are starting to admit the earnings bubble is real—and the 60/40 portfolio may be the first casualty

by Nick Lichtenberg

GS: "there does not appear to be a valuation bubble, but there may be an earnings bubble" in the technology sector.

"The 60/40 portfolio is broken," arguing that with the AI trade slowing down and government debt projected to reach 175% of GDP, "neither the 60 nor the 40 responds to what made it work in the first place."

"More government debt, increased issuance and persistent inflation, have all contributed to a higher cost of capital, leaving earnings as the key driver of returns".

The four-decade rate regime that made the 60/40 rule reliable has quietly ended; the two-decade run of tech dominance that defined this generation's bull markets is de-rating; and even the analysts most inclined to defend the AI trade are starting, carefully, and on the same August day, to concede the skeptics may have been early—not wrong.

Source: Fortune

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stock ... 53742.html

[winston]

The giant sucking sound of US profits is leaving Asia dry

American stocks offer better returns, while Treasuries give higher yields

“Economies that are not embedded in the US (artificial intelligence) sector are finding it harder to attract foreign capital” .

Source: Bloomberg

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... g-asia-dry