US - Tariffs

[behappyalways]

Treasury Secretary Bessent warns of massive refunds if the Supreme Court voids Trump tariffs
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/07/trump-t ... ssent.html

[behappyalways]

Trump says will raise Canada tariff by 10% after Reagan ad
https://www.theedgesingapore.com/news/u ... -reagan-ad

[behappyalways]

With GOP Help, Senate Votes To Block Trump's 50% Tariffs On Brazil
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/gop ... ffs-brazil

[winston]

UBS: supreme court ruling against Trump tariffs could force US$140 bln refunds, reshape US trade policy

A potential US Supreme Court ruling against the legality of US President Donald Trump’s tariffs is expected to compel the government to refund around US$140 billion (HK$1.09 trillion) to importers – equivalent to 7.9 percent of the projected 2025 federal budget deficit, according to UBS Group.

That would also trigger significant short-term fiscal pressure and force Washington to rebuild trade barriers through alternative legal mechanisms, the Swiss bank said.

A ruling against the administration would create an immediate fiscal shock through massive refunds while potentially leading to a structurally lower-tax trade environment that could ultimately benefit the US economy and stock market if trading partners refrain from retaliation.

The bank estimates the government would likely employ other legal tools including Sections 201 and 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 to reconstruct tariff barriers, though this process would take several quarters and result in less flexible trade policy.

UBS suggests the ruling could ultimately reduce overall effective tariff rates, boost household purchasing power, ease inflationary pressures, and provide the Federal Reserve with more rate-cutting flexibility – developments that would generally be welcomed by equity investors provided trade partners avoid escalating retaliatory measures.

Source: The Standard

https://www.thestandard.com.hk/wealth-a ... le/316104/

[behappyalways]

US, Switzerland Reach Tariff Deal That Lowers Duties, Stokes Investment
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... investment

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Tariff Revenue Surges To Record High Of $31.4 Billion In October
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tar ... on-october

[behappyalways]

Trump Says He Has 'Other Methods' To Impose Tariffs If Supreme Court Limits Powers
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tru ... its-powers

[winston]

Trump’s trade war and the persistence of magical thinking

The tariffs have been effective at one thing: generating political theatre while imposing costs on American households and businesses

by Leon Hadar

The average US tariff rate has skyrocketed from about 2.5 per cent in January to more than 20 per cent by mid-year, the highest level in over a century.

Tariff revenues have surged past US$30 billion monthly, compared to under US$10 billion before the policy shift.

Who is actually paying these tariffs? Despite Trump’s repeated assurances that foreign countries would bear the cost, the data through mid-2025 shows US businesses absorbing the vast majority of tariff expenses.

Import prices paid to foreign sellers have barely budged, declining by at most 2.5 per cent, while retail prices for imported goods rose only about 2 per cent through August. The gap between a 13 per cent effective tariff rate and a 2 per cent price increase tells us everything we need to know: American importers are eating the costs, for now.

The Penn Wharton Budget Model projects that Trump’s tariff policies will reduce long-run gross domestic product by around 6 per cent and wages by 5 per cent, imposing a lifetime loss of roughly US$22,000 on middle-income households.

Source: Business Times

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/opinio ... l-thinking

[behappyalways]

Trump says any country doing business with Iran will face 25% U.S. tariff
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/12/trump-t ... iness.html

[behappyalways]

Beijing Responds As Trump's Iran-Related Tariffs Risk Derailing US-China Trade Deal
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... trade-deal