Latin America

[behappyalways]

Conservative Hardliner Elected President Of Costa Rica
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... costa-rica

[behappyalways]

Billions In Chinese Investment To Flee Panama - Beijing Livid Over Canal Ports Decision
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... s-decision

[behappyalways]

Peru Removes President After Scandal Tied To Chinese Contractor
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/per ... contractor

[behappyalways]

Trump-Backed "El Tigre" Wins Colombia Presidency As Socialist Era Ends
https://www.zerohedge.com/political/tru ... t-era-ends

[winston]

Six Months After Maduro. Venezuela Is Open for Business — With Conditions.

Acting President Delcy Rodriguez has consolidated power, pushed through sweeping oil, mining and electricity reforms and cut deals with GE Vernova and U.S. energy majors — all while letting U.S. military operations run on Venezuelan soil.

Washington has eased sanctions in return. The country's most significant economic opening in decades is underway and companies with high risk tolerance are already moving.

Why oil production recovery will take a decade and $100 billion — and where the faster near-term opportunities actually are

How armed groups control most of Venezuela's gold mining regions — and why the government can't fully eradicate them

Which regime insiders pose the biggest threat to Rodriguez's grip on power

When Washington will start pushing for elections — and what that means for existing contracts

The stakes are enormous: Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, 2,343 metric tons of unmined gold and major deposits of nickel, coltan and rare earths.

But 86% of its gold is produced illegally, only 40% of its power capacity is operational and Diosdado Cabello still controls the paramilitary apparatus. This is an opportunity — and a minefield.

Source: RANE Worldview

[winston]

Colombia's Far-Right Outsider Just Won by a Razor-Thin Margin. Here's What Comes Next.

Abelardo de la Espriella won Colombia's June 21 runoff by less than one percentage point — the country's closest presidential race in three decades.

He's promised 90 decrees in his first days in office, a hard military offensive against armed groups, forced coca eradication and a sharp pivot toward Washington.

He takes office August 7 with four senators behind him.

Which policies can be done by decree and which will get blocked by Congress/courts

Why the oil and gas sector wins, and what the risks are for investors who move too fast

How guerrilla group violence will reshape security risk in rural and extractive regions

What his posture toward China means for Belt + Road projects already underway

The stakes are enormous: Colombia's fiscal deficit hit 6.2% of GDP last year, coca production expanded under Petro and armed groups used the Total Peace negotiations to consolidate territory.

De la Espriella inherits a country more polarized, more indebted and more dangerous — and he's governing with almost no legislative support.

Source: Rane Worldwide

[winston]

South America Is Turning Right. Here’s What It Actually Means for U.S. Business

Pro-business governments have taken power in Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Ecuador, Peru and Colombia in the past two years.

They share Trump’s security agenda, are scrutinizing Chinese investment and are rolling out investor-friendly reforms.

But South America is not about to become a strategic manufacturing hub for the United States and geopolitical alignment won’t override project economics.

Which sectors will actually see increased U.S. investment and which countries are positioned to capture it

Why supply chain realignment away from China is largely a fantasy for South America

How the Shield of the Americas is expanding from drug interdiction into financial intelligence

Why Brazil’s October election is the most consequential variable for the region’s investment outlook

The stakes are enormous: Argentina’s Vaca Muerta just hit a record 881,000 barrels per day,

Chile and Peru together produce a third of the world’s copper and the lithium triangle holds 60% of global reserves.

The political window is open but structural bottlenecks, executive driven reforms and future political reversals mean investors can’t just follow the flags.
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Source: RANE Worldview

[winston]

Colombian Earthquake

The headlines say Colombia was hit by a major earthquake.

Here’s what they’re missing. A magnitude 7.4 quake struck on Aug. 10 — President de la Espriella’s fourth day in office. 254 dead, 2,500 injured, six airports closed, 18 roads disrupted and Buenaventura port — which handles two-thirds of Colombia’s coffee exports — temporarily shut down.

The new president has declared a national emergency and assumed personal command.

He has almost no political capital, a 6.4% fiscal deficit and a Congress his party barely controls.

Why the ELN, Gulf Clan, and FARC dissidents will exploit the reconstruction phase and what that means for security risk and sanctions compliance

How de la Espriella could use emergency powers to advance his austerity agenda and why the Constitutional Court will likely stop him

What the supply chain rerouting from Buenaventura to Cartagena means for coffee, sugar and pharmaceutical exports

Source: RANE Worldview